As President Trump lays out his foreign policy ambitions for 2025, one message stands out: he believes he can quickly broker sweeping deals where Joe Biden supposedly failed. Whether ending the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” or striking a new nuclear agreement with Iran, Trump promises rapid breakthroughs through “tough” but “smart” deal-making.
But behind the scenes, Vladimir Putin and Iranian leaders are deliberately encouraging this belief — not in order to enable peace, but to entangle Trump in a diplomatic web advancing their own goals.
Both Moscow and Tehran are stringing Trump along, offering illusions of negotiation without intent to concede. Worse, they are coordinating this strategy to maximize leverage — using Trump’s eagerness for quick wins to box the U.S. into disadvantageous positions.
On Ukraine, Putin’s hints at willingness to negotiate are tactical feints. Russia’s objectives — subjugating Ukraine, neutralizing NATO’s eastern flank and cementing its territorial gains — remain unchanged. Putin’s signals about potential “peace talks” are calculated to lure Trump into thinking a simple handshake could end the war. In reality, any ceasefire Russia entertains would simply allow it to rearm and regroup.
Meanwhile, Iran is following Putin’s playbook. As Trump allies explore reopening nuclear talks, Tehran signals vague openness — while accelerating its nuclear program and regional entrenchment. Iran seeks negotiations not to curb its ambitions but to lift pressure, divide the West, and reset the diplomatic field without real sacrifice.
The critical and often overlooked reality is that Russia and Iran are not acting alone. They are coordinating tactics. Given its growing security and economic ties with Tehran, Moscow has encouraged Iran to maintain a posture of selective engagement — stringing along the prospect of diplomacy without committing to anything irreversible.
At the same time, Russia positioned itself as an indispensable intermediary between the United States and Iran, proposing itself as a “broker” who could facilitate breakthroughs if Trump is willing to make broader geopolitical concessions.
This gambit serves several Russian goals: keeping Trump invested in outcomes Moscow controls, making Russia appear indispensable in both Ukraine and the Middle East, fostering U.S. diplomatic dependency and opening doors to sanctions relief, territorial recognition, or weakening of NATO unity.
In effect, Putin is exploiting Trump’s transactional instincts — offering mirages of progress in exchange for real strategic gains.
Compounding the risks, Trump’s choice of envoy has unintentionally strengthened this axis. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, is a real estate developer with no diplomatic experience, appointed to conduct backchannel negotiations with Moscow and Tehran. By relying on a personal confidant rather than a seasoned statesman, Trump has created an opening for adversaries to exploit.
Witkoff — unwittingly — is the perfect vehicle for their strategy: someone who can be flattered, misled and used to signal false progress. Russian and Iranian officials are likely even comparing notes on how best to manipulate him — turning U.S. diplomacy into a tool for their agenda.
The risks for the United States are serious. Three months into his presidency, Trump appears committed to clinching quick deals — but he is chasing mirages controlled by Moscow and Tehran. A “peace deal” that freezes Russian gains would shatter international law and embolden future aggression. A nuclear accord with Iran that offers sanctions relief without verifiable curbs would fuel a regional arms race.
Worse, the illusion of momentum could sap American leverage. Allies would be divided. Ukraine would be demoralized. Iran would pocket relief and continue its nuclear advance under a veil of diplomacy. Russia would regain global legitimacy while Ukraine remains vulnerable.
Putin’s genius lies less in warfare than in manipulation. He understands Trump’s craving for quick wins and is shaping traps that look like easy victories but serve Kremlin depth. Under its own pressures, Iran eagerly joins the charade, partnering with Moscow to bypass Western isolation.
As 2025 unfolds, Trump’s team — and American voters — must recognize the trap being laid. Real diplomacy requires realism, not wishful thinking. Putin and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, aren’t offering peace — they’re offering delay, distraction and dependence.
No deal — on Ukraine or Iran — will be possible without pressure and strategic resolve. Chasing phantom agreements may win headlines, but it will cost America dearly. If Trump seeks true strength, he must remember: the art of the deal begins with knowing when you’re being played.
Igor Desyatnikov is a U.S.-based global macro and geopolitical strategist. He is completing graduate studies in political science and international security with a focus on post-Soviet space at Harvard University and contributes to Geopolitical Monitor on foreign policy and security issues.
