Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is facing a difficult decision as he weighs whether to run for New York governor, potentially putting him at odds with a close ally of President Trump, or run for reelection in a competitive House district.
Lawler seemed just a few weeks ago to be the favorite for the GOP nomination for governor as Republicans look to unseat unpopular incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D). But that now appears up in the air with Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) considering her own run to lead the state, while Trump has weighed in to urge Lawler to run for his current seat.
Should Lawler instead seek to remain in the House, he will head into the race a slight favorite, but one facing headwinds as the GOP grapples with a potentially unfavorable political environment.
“Lawler certainly has the resume to run in New York statewide. He’s smart, he’s moderate, and that is sort of a great prescription to run as a Republican in a very tough Democratic state,” said New York Republican strategist Tom Doherty.
“But a lot of that is going to be dictated by what the folks in Washington think they need and what’s best to serve their interests as well as holding onto the House,” he added.
Lawler, who previously served as executive director of the state GOP, has demonstrated his prowess as a candidate just in his second term in office.
He was first elected to the House in 2022 in an upset victory over longtime Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), despite Republicans having a disappointing performance nationally and only gaining a handful of seats.
Representing a competitive district, he was a main target for Democrats in 2024 as New York was seen as critical for the party to potentially retake control of the House. But he held on against a challenge from former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), increasing his winning margin to 6 points.
While in office, Lawler has developed a reputation as a moderate willing to work with the other side, being rated as one of the most bipartisan members of the House in 2023.
All of this, along with Hochul grappling with an underwater favorability rating and Republicans making gains in the Empire State in recent years, contributed to speculation that Lawler would seek statewide office. Rumors started even while he was running for reelection last year that he was eying a gubernatorial run.
But Stefanik may throw a wrench in that as she considers a run, coming off her withdrawal as Trump’s nominee for United Nations ambassador. As a close Trump ally, Stefanik already had a decent case to make to his supporters in a GOP primary, but some say Trump’s Truth Social post on Tuesday endorsing Lawler may have been a nod to her potential candidacy. Trump didn’t mention Stefanik, but some read the post as his way of urging Lawler to remain in the House.
Republicans were split about how much to read into the post and whether it should be taken at face value or whether it was an implicit endorsement for Stefanik for governor.
Lawler told The Hill in an interview that important context to Trump’s post is that he’s been rolling out endorsements of swing-district Republicans over the past few weeks, and the post endorsing him came among several others for House members.
“He wants to keep the House. I want to make sure we keep the House, but I viewed it in that lens,” he said. “Ultimately, I certainly appreciate his support and his kind words, but I think that has no bearing on the next steps in terms of my decisionmaking process.”
He said he will make his decision on the basis of whether he sees a legitimate pathway to succeed, but Stefanik’s decision won’t have any bearing on his own.
“I’m not interested in a kamikaze mission, or just saying ‘30 years ago, I ran for governor.’ It’s not really what my interest is. My interest is in running to actually do the job,” he said.
Lawler previously said he would decide his plans in June.
As the primary is still a year away and no major candidate has declared a run yet, not much polling has been done on the field, but a GOP poll from last month showed Stefanik well ahead with 44 percent support to Lawler’s 7 percent.
Stefanik’s net favorability was also considerably higher than her potential opponents.
“If Elise wants the nomination, she’s going to get the nomination,” one Republican insider said.
They said Lawler would be best served by staying in his House district where he is “very popular” as Republicans continue to make gains in New York.
They said Lawler would perform well against Hochul but expect Stefanik would have a better chance.
The poll showed Stefanik the closest behind Hochul in a hypothetical match-up, 6 points behind the governor, while Lawler was 7 points behind in his match-up.
But one New York Republican argued that Stefanik is currently benefiting from higher name recognition, and Lawler would improve as more people become familiar with him. Just more than 40 percent of survey respondents said they had never heard of Lawler, while a quarter said the same about Stefanik.
Just as many said they were undecided in the primary as those who said they would support Stefanik.
The Republican insider said Lawler’s district is much more representative of New York as a whole than most others in the state, where Democrats still significantly outnumber Republicans. New York’s 17th Congressional District is one of a few that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris and a Republican House member.
“Mike has this ability to connect with and a track record of connecting with moderate voters and Democrats,” the insider said.
If he were to run for reelection to the House, Lawler said he feels positive about his standing in his district even with 2026 potentially posing an uphill battle for Republicans.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen underwater just more than 100 days into his term, and midterm elections historically have been rough for the party in power.
“Obviously, Democrats are mobilizing, they’re protesting, they’re spending money, but the fact is that my constituents know who I am,” Lawler said. “They know the work that I’m doing, and I continue to operate the same way that I did in my first term.”
He noted former Rep. Lee Zeldin’s (R-N.Y.) significant improvement against Hochul in the 2022 race and Trump’s improvement in November, the best for a Republican presidential candidate in years, but they both still fell short.
“Lee Zeldin did well, but he still lost by 350,000 votes. President Trump did better. He still lost by a million votes,” Lawler said.
“From the standpoint of my current job, I love what I’m doing, and I’m not chafing at the bit to leave Congress,” he said. “So it’s a function of really evaluating the opportunities and then making an informed decision.”
