President Trump sparked what is likely to be a brutal battle for the 2028 Republican nomination during his May 4 interview on “Meet the Press.” After extinguishing his ongoing “third-term” tease, Trump name-checked the two leading candidates to succeed him: Vice President JD Vance (as expected) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (very unexpected).
This week, questions about Rubio’s own birthright citizenship (neither of his parents was a citizen when he was born in Florida) generated headlines, so watch this developing issue.
Rubio, formerly a third-term U.S. senator from Florida, had been a critical rival of candidate Trump in the 2016 presidential primary. Rubio, whom Trump degradingly taunted as “Little Marco,” has suddenly morphed into powerful “Big Marco,” concurrently serving in four separate leadership positions: secretary of State, interim National Security Advisor, acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development and acting archivist for the National Archives and Records Administration.
Trump’s recent unleashing of a Vance vs. Rubio rivalry will effectively sustain media interest over the next three years. Once again, the president proves he is a master manipulator of the 24/7 news cycle.
Now, during any Trump-news lull, he can tease a Vance vs. Rubio “Truth Social” post about the state of their rivalry. He can also inject new possible successors, tease a potential 2028 endorsement or adopt the firm non-endorsement strategy of “let the MAGA primary voters decide.” This continues his reign as the all-powerful lame-duck kingmaker, while 2028 hopefuls kowtow for his favor.
In any case, expect the GOP presidential primary to be 100 percent Trump-centric, with entangled high-stakes drama and factors at play. Such factors include enshrining Trump’s all-important personal and presidential legacy, a potential family dynasty and ensuring the nomination of a “MAGA movement heir” worthy of that title who could capture 270 electoral votes in Trump’s name.
Recognizing and satisfying that checklist is why Trump’s “succession reality show contest” began this month. The president is known to enjoy extended chaos and infighting when he controls the situation.
So who is the nominee most likely to win Trump’s “third term”? This is a rarely achieved consideration for a two-term president. The last time it happened was 1988, when Vice President George H.W. Bush won a bona fide landslide, reflecting President Ronald Reagan’s popularity and a roaring 1980s economy. Then consider that 2028 will mark 40 years since the last time America’s fickle, pendulum swinging, polarized electorate has bestowed a “third term” on the nominee of the incumbent president’s party.
For Vance or Rubio to succeed Trump, they will have to separate themselves from his generally unpopular, nontraditional governing style, laden with what some consider authoritarian tendencies. What follows are the known situations and factors to consider — although unknowns will undoubtedly arise.
A Republican loss in the 2026 midterms of the House, Senate or both could change the trajectory of Trump’s agenda and affect the next presidential election. Considering the president’s 44 percent job approval rating, this week, a Politico headline read: “Trump Is Already Obsessed With the Midterms.” He should be, since the 2018 midterms resulted in Republicans losing the House, which stymied the last two years of Trump’s first-term agenda.
Therefore, expect Vance and Rubio to live on the 2026 campaign trail, intensifying their auditions and trying to impress Trump through crowd size, fundraising and media performances.
If the midterms don’t end well for the GOP, how far would Vance and Rubio run from Trump? Or could they even try to distance themselves if the MAGA base still supports Trump and both believe they need his endorsement, even at the risk of losing anti-Trump Republicans and independent voters in the general election?
Conversely, if Team Trump keeps Congress, Vance and Rubio will want to claim some credit. Then listen for the “I am the best person to win Trump’s third term” argument to shift into high gear. The 2028 presidential campaign officially begins the day after the midterms, but the “money primary” of quietly recruiting major donors and key staff starts now.
It’s anyone’s guess how long until Vance and Rubio openly become rivals, clawing at each other behind the scenes. Before Trump mentioned Rubio’s name on “Meet the Press,” casting him as a Vance rival, the vice president appeared to be without rival. In many respects, he still is, but he must now work even harder to please Trump and earn his endorsement.
As first in line for the office, Vance holds all the power-player advantages to win the nomination, but is quickly accumulating controversial international baggage. As previously noted, history does not favor him winning the general, but in his favor is Vance’s second title — finance chair of the Republican National Committee. He is uniquely positioned there to sway major donors. And, ideally, Trump will want to avoid a long, bloody primary.
However, Vance 2028 is far from a lock. What if the political climate turns cloudy with a 75 percent chance of anti-Trump thunderstorms? Then, an outsider to Trump’s orbit like Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) from could capitalize on a public desire to “turn the page from the Trump era.”
Meanwhile, Rubio dreams of being the first Hispanic president. But if Vance wins the nomination and taps the secretary as his running mate, would he accept? Rubio, born in 1971, still has years until his presidential expiration date, as does 1984-born Vance.
Lurking behind the scenes is Donald Trump Jr. In July 2024, Junior argued that, despite Vance’s past anti-Trump statements, he was MAGA’s future. He likely still believes that about his friend.
Nonetheless, Republican leaders from outside the Trump administration will voice strong arguments for change if the midterms are unsuccessful.
But for now, it’s Team Trump full steam ahead for 2026 — while filtering through the 2028 strainer everything Vance and Rubio do and say. They audition daily as Trump scores who is worthy to be his successor.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.
