Democrats are throwing cold water on the possibility of Stacey Abrams mounting a third bid for Georgia governor, underscoring how the once-rising star’s image has been tarnished by consecutive losses and recent controversies.
Abrams hasn’t publicly commented on another potential run but also hasn’t ruled it out as she stays politically active. If she were to try again, Abrams would bring strong name identification and established fundraising prowess to the race because she’s been a face of the state Democratic Party for years.
But at least some Democrats think their best chance to win a difficult battle for the governor’s mansion next year would be turning to someone new.
“There’s not a lot of energy … or a large appetite within the state of Georgia amongst Democrats for a third Abrams run,” said Georgia Democratic strategist Fred Hicks.
“There’s a deep appreciation for her putting Georgia in play through her work with the New Georgia Project, Fair Fight and her 2018 run,” Hicks continued. “But I think after that ‘22 election and all the things that have happened in the state since then, Democrats are really focused on trying to put forth a candidate they feel like can win next year.”
Abrams first became a national figure around the 2018 gubernatorial election. Having previously served as Georgia state House minority leader, she came within 1.5 points of winning the governor’s race in a state that hadn’t elected a Democratic governor in 20 years.
She launched an organization called Fair Fight, dedicated to protecting voter rights, shortly after that election and delivered the Democratic response to President Trump’s State of the Union Address in 2019.
Her years-long efforts to flip Georgia paid big dividends in 2020, when the state voted for former President Biden and elected two Democratic senators. One of them, Sen. Raphael Warnock was reelected two years later when he ran for a full six-year term.
But Abrams has struggled as a candidate herself. She sought a rematch against Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in 2022 but lost by more than 7 points.
Democrats say they credit Abrams for contributing to shifting Georgia from a solidly red state to a battleground, but that it’s best for them to look elsewhere. They said they recognize her strengths in name identification, fundraising and enthusing voters, but her past losses may be a sign.
“Third time is the who-knows-what,” said national Democratic strategist Jon Reinish. “There’s one major figure in American history for whom the third time was the charm — that was Reagan running for president.”
“These days, when voters are so eager for fresh, baggage-free figures, I don’t know if that path to victory can still play out,” Reinish said.
Abrams also faced controversy for years over allegations that two nonprofits she founded, the New Georgia Project and the New Georgia Project Action Fund, violated state law in campaigning for her but not registering as a political committee. The groups were fined $300,000 in January.
A spokesperson for Abrams said at the time she hasn’t been involved with the groups since she left in 2017.
Hicks said questions have lingered about Abrams’s campaign finances since 2018, but he doesn’t believe that was the main obstacle facing her in 2022. He said a “common refrain” he heard during that election was that the Abrams campaign was too focused on national media and grasstops advocacy rather than grassroots campaigning.
He noted that Warnock outperformed her that year, making it to a runoff before eventually winning his Senate race, while Abrams wasn’t close to winning governor.
“Everyone expects that she would be quite profitable in terms of raising money, and the primary would draw a lot of attention to the race, but there are great concerns about whether or not she could win in November,” Hicks said.
The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Abrams for comment.
She isn’t the only rumored possible Democratic candidate considering a run.
State Sen. Jason Esteves has already launched a campaign, while former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms filed paperwork to run last month. Former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond and state Rep. Derrick Jackson have also indicated interest.
Democrats expressed optimism at their chances of winning the governor’s race, particularly with Kemp, who has been a popular governor and effective candidate, term-limited.
“I just think we need people who are young and aggressive, who are going to go after the Republicans,” said one Georgia Democrat.
Strategist Antjuan Seawright said the most important characteristic for candidates thinking of running is to not be “selfish” and focus on who has the best chance to win and can speak to what Georgians want in their leader.
“I don’t think there’s early favorites when it comes to political primaries, because it’s all about peaking at the right time,” Seawright said. “I think the most important thing is who’s going to be able to define the opposition but also define the things that we are for as Democrats out in Georgia.”
Meanwhile, Republicans have expressed eagerness at the prospect of twice-defeated Abrams running again, expecting it would give the eventual GOP nominee an easier path to victory.
GOP strategist Jay Williams said the negatives are rising and that if she had a chance to win, it was in 2018.
“Republicans weren’t as well-prepared for that,” he said. “There was a little bit of disbelief at the time that a Democrat could win. When all that went down, Republicans started to get their act together.”
Hicks also credited Abrams with the other victories that Democrats have had since 2020, including Warnock’s two wins and the one from Sen. Jon Ossoff.
“Georgia wouldn’t be where it is without her. Sen. Warnock wouldn’t be there. Sen. Ossoff wouldn’t be in there,” he said.
He said Abrams should try to find objective third-party polling showing she is the strongest candidate and can win a general election before making a decision. If she has that, circumstances and voter sentiment can change.
But Hicks added that some figures are naturally better suited to organizing and calling attention to an issue or election than succeeding as a candidate themselves.
“Some people are better at organizing and bringing attention than they are winning the races themselves,” he said. “And there’s no shame that Democrats want to win next year, and whoever can give Democrats the best chance, that’s who they want to get behind.”
