Congressional Republicans are halfway through a critical four-week stretch for passing President Trump’s legislative priorities — and they are behind the eight-ball.
On the House side, leaders are struggling to find consensus on a host of hot-button issues, headlined by Medicaid cuts and the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Top lawmakers are looking to advance key parts of the legislation next week, even as they haven’t been able to unveil legislation yet and their members remain far apart on the crucial questions.
Across the Capitol, meanwhile, Senate Republicans are raising an eyebrow at the slow progress being made by their counterparts, questioning when they will get their hands on the package.
That combination is upping the pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to deliver on his self-imposed Memorial Day deadline. He has the herculean task of finding a final product that appeases hardline conservatives, vulnerable moderates and the White House — all with few votes to spare in the GOP’s razor-thin majority.
“We’re still in the consensus-building business around here, as we are every single day,” Johnson told reporters on Thursday. “I’m very encouraged by our position in this and the progress that’s being made, and I think the final product gonna be very favorable to everybody.”
The state-of-play, however, tells a different story.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, is planning to formally consider and vote to advance its portion of the package on Tuesday, but the conference still remains at odds over potential changes to Medicaid. The budget resolution that served as a blueprint for the final bill instructed the panel to achieve at least $880 billion in spending cuts, which experts say is likely impossible without cuts to the safety net program.
Republicans are largely on board with imposing work requirements, six-month registration checks and barring those who entered the country without authorization from the social safety net program, a source told The Hill, and Johnson told reporters this week that a controversial proposal to directly reduce the enhanced federal match for states that expanded Medicaid, known as the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP), was off the table, a key red line for moderates.
But on whether the conference will place per capita caps on Medicaid expansion enrollees — another hard no among centrists — the situation is murky.
Johnson told reporters this week “I think we’re ruling that out.” The next day, however, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) said it was his “understanding” that per capita caps “were still kind of alive,” drawing contrast with the Speaker and sowing confusion.
On Thursday, the Speaker said the matter had not yet been worked out.
“There’s still ongoing discussion about per capita caps, but it’s a sensitive thing,” Johnson told reporters.
As the impasse drags on, lawmakers on opposite ends of the debate are digging in their heels. Deficit hawks are still phishing for changes to Medicaid, while moderates are warning that the controversial proposal remains a red line.
“I’ve said very clearly, I do not support any change to FMAP, I don’t support per capita caps,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said this week.
A the same time, the House Ways and Means Committee — which oversees the tax portion of the bill — is also eyeing a markup next week on its part of the package, which is the centerpiece of the legislative undertaking.
That plan, however, comes as lawmakers are moving further apart on the question of how to reform the SALT deduction cap — and tensions are on the rise.
During an hours-long House Ways and Means Committee meeting on Thursday, Republicans discussed increasing the SALT deduction cap from its current $10,000 to $30,000 for single and married filers, two sources told The Hill. Key Republicans on the SALT caucus sharply rejected the idea.
“It’s not just insulting—it risks derailing President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill,” Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) wrote in a statement.
“This isn’t an offer — it’s a slap in the face to the hardworking taxpayers we represent and stands in the way of progress on our House Republican’s larger agenda,” Garbarino and Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.), the co-chairs of the SALT Caucus, echoed in a separate statement.
Hardline conservative deficit hawks, meanwhile, are balking at a SALT deduction cap increase because of the costly nature of such a policy. Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), for example, wrote on X: “If you want a higher SALT cap, come up with a pay-for.”
Johnson, for his part, has been careful with his wording when it comes to the SALT deduction cap. While told reporters “I’ve heard that number, and I’ve heard others as well,” when asked about a $30,000 deduction cap, he said “I’m not gonna handicap it because I’m not sure exactly what that is.”
“There’s a lot of analysis that’s gone into it,” Johnson said. “We want to make sure that most of the constituents, the large share, the vast majority of the constituents of the affected districts, are covered by that, and I think we can find the right number that will do it and satisfy all the the various concerns about it.”
The lack of progress, meanwhile, has caught the eye of Senate Republicans, who held a one-day retreat in town on Wednesday that focused largely on the reconciliation process.
A number of them had indicated for months that they did not view the House’s Memorial Day deadline as realistic — and they see the recent stumbles on Medicaid cuts and SALT as proving their point.
“At the end of most of our meetings, we feel like we’re heading toward a straight flush. A lot of times we wake up and we’ve got a pair of twos in our hands,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a top ally of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and an informal liaison to the House GOP.
“It’s always moving,” Mullin said. “Every time you think you get one issue resolved, it moves the ball someplace else on someone else. We’re still playing with the same dollars. … We’re close enough that when you move, it affects somebody.”
Thune also huddled the same day with Johnson, top Trump economic officials and tax writers in their latest “Big Six” meeting, with an eye on keeping the engine running.
“There was, I felt like, a pretty good sense that things are coming together now,” Thune said of the meeting.
“The wheels can come off multiple times in this process, and often do. In the end, we’ve got to make sure we get it back on the rails and I think there’s enough commitment to doing that we’ll figure it out,” he said. “They’ve got a big week ahead of them.”
With the mark-ups and Memorial Day around the corner, Senate GOP lawmakers are viewing this as a key week in the party’s journey to getting the “big, beautiful bill” to Trump’s desk.
Whether Johnson and co. can make this happen remains a very real question, with Senate Republicans wondering whether it’s too much of an uphill lift to meet that deadline. But after seeing Johnson’s ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat on multiple occasions this year alone — including his Speaker’s race, the budget resolution and government funding — they aren’t ready to pour cold water on the idea that the House can’t meet the deadline.
“They seem to be able to get things done a lot quicker in the end than we think,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of GOP leadership and an ex-House member.
