President Trump’s second-term honeymoon is over, but his political resilience is far from exhausted.
Trump is seeking to turn the page after a bleak stretch that saw his approval ratings drop sharply, especially in the wake of his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs and the turmoil that ensued.
The situation looked grim around Trump’s 100th day in office on April 30.
Since then, however, he has enjoyed a more favorable stretch.
His pausing of tariffs generally, and the de-escalation of sky-high levies with China in particular, has boosted financial markets.
All three major stock indexes have made up, or surpassed, the levels they enjoyed prior to Trump’s April 2 announcement.
Trump also emphasized his populist instincts with a pledge to get pharmaceutical companies to lower their prices for some prescription drugs.
The idea is that American consumers would pay the same amount for drugs as the residents of other developed nations, rather than paying almost three times as much, as they do now.
There are sizable questions about exactly how this would happen. Trump’s initial announcement amounted to little more than asking Big Pharma to do as he asked. The crunch will come if they do nothing after the 30-day deadline that he set elapses.
Meanwhile, Trump has spent much of the week in the Middle East. The trip has not been without controversy. But it has at least allowed Trump to enjoy the pomp and circumstance of a foreign trip, while also highlighting positive news like Qatar’s pledge to buy 160 Boeing planes.
The upshot is that Trump has enjoyed a modest bounce in opinion polls over the past week.
He is still not particularly popular. But the alarms that were going off as his ratings sagged around the 100-day mark no longer ring so loudly or ominously.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week showed him shaving 3 points off his negative job approval rating since the last time the same organizations conducted a poll in late April. This week’s Reuters poll showed him 8 points underwater rather than 11, with 52 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance and 44 percent approving.
A weekly Economist/YouGov poll has shown a similar pattern, with Trump edging up by 4 points over two weeks. In late April, his job approval rating was 11 points underwater. Now, it’s 7 points — 52 percent disapproval, 45 percent approval.
Those ratings are not anything to boast about, of course. But they at least point to a shoring up of Trump’s political capital.
They also stand as clear proof that the biggest factor, when it comes to shifting the small sliver of movable voters for or against him, is the economy. During the nadir of the tariff policy, those voters were plainly displeased. But some have been won back over as Trump has since sought to bind up his self-inflicted wound.
He is not out of the woods yet, however.
Many tariffs have been reduced rather than eliminated. Trump’s back-and-forth on the topic has caused its own problems, making consumers hesitant and chilling business investment.
On Thursday, Walmart said it would have to begin to raise prices later this month. The company, the biggest retailer in the world, blamed tariffs.
“There are certain items, certain categories of merchandise that we’re dependent upon to import from other countries, and the prices of those things are likely going to go up, and that’s not good for consumers,” Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said on a conference call, according to Reuters.
Other major corporations have also felt the effects of the continuing uncertainty. At the end of April, General Motors withdrew its previous guidance on future earnings and revenue, owing to the tariff issue and its repercussions.
Meanwhile, Trump supporters contend that the predictions of doom from his tariffs have been exaggerated. Among the data they cite: new consumer price index information released Tuesday showing inflation in April at 2.3 percent on an annualized basis — its lowest point since early 2021.
The skeptics counter that inflation could still be coming, despite Trump’s retreat from the highest levies.
There are complications around other issues too.
Trump’s move on drug prices, for example, comes amid a push by congressional Republicans to slash spending on Medicaid. This approach has provided a rich target for Democrats, who emphasize that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has found in a preliminary estimate that the GOP proposal could result in almost 9 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2034.
The Medicaid cuts are intended to pay, in part, for tax cuts that Trump wants. But it’s hard to put a populist sheen on depriving people of health coverage.
Even when it comes to the Middle East, Trump’s trip proceeded in tandem with a controversy over an offer from the Qatari royal family to gift a luxury aircraft worth an estimated $400 million.
The proposal was for the plane to be used as a new Air Force One during the remainder of Trump’s time in office, after which it would be made available to his presidential foundation.
The potential for corruption, as well as fears that the jet could pose a national security concern, drew worries even from Republican senators.
“The plane poses significant espionage and surveillance problems. So we’ll see how this issue plays out,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told CNBC this week.
There are still plenty of troubles crowding in on Trump.
But he has at least created some breathing room for himself as the second phase of his second term begins.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
