Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News journalist Dana Perino a few weeks ago that “Russia’s not winning this war. Russia has not made any major advances in the last year and a half.”
But you would not know that based upon President Trump’s Monday phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Threats of economic sanctions and resumption of military aid to Ukraine fell by the wayside.
Trump’s post on X following his two-hour phone call with Putin should have come as no surprise. Days prior to the conversation, a senior European diplomat told the Financial Times, “Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere. And Trump is falling for it.”
And he did fall for it — again. Putin adhered to the teachings of Sun Tzu — know your enemy. He embraced the bromance. The call went so well for Putin that a senior Russian official said the two leaders seemed to “not want to say goodbye.” Trump and his ‘Art of the Deal’ mentality, coupled with his narcissistic ego, was made to order for the former KGB agent.
The minerals deal signed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in April apparently was not enough to quench the appetite for the Don of the Donbas.
Trump, unfortunately, is stuck on transactional economic outcomes rather than security for his NATO allies and Ukraine. In the X statement, he highlighted that, “Russia wants to do large-scale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth.”
European leaders were reported as shocked, “dismayed that the U.S. president appears unwilling to put pressure on the Kremlin leader.” It is also evident that European leaders are not ready to put pressure on Trump either — or prepared to go it alone. They seem content to sit on the sidelines wringing their hands waiting for the U.S. to broker an outcome.
European leaders have no shortage of good ideas. They just lack the intestinal fortitude to implement them on their own without U.S. backing. It is time for them to take the bull by the horns.
Monday’s phone call changed nothing as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators had already met in Istanbul for 90 minutes where they discussed the possibility of a ceasefire as well as follow-on meetings.
But Putin got what he wanted — more time, and friction between the U.S. and their NATO allies. What he tells Trump one-on-one is not the message his negotiators convey. Zelensky — and his European allies — remain in the way. Creating separation between the U.S. and NATO is Putin’s strategy.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov quickly downplayed any expectations of a quick agreement, saying ending the Ukraine war would require “rather painstaking and, perhaps, prolonged work.”
Putin still has not agreed to Trump’s original 30-day ceasefire proposal, nor has the Kremlin’s ceasefire conditions changed. In fact, they have escalated: “Russian negotiators threatened to seize northeastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions — in addition to the five regions it has already annexed — if Moscow’s demands were not met.”
Bloomberg put it succinctly: “Putin is convinced that by the end of the year the Russian Armed Forces will be able to break through the Ukrainian defenses and completely capture four regions.”
Once again, Putin is writing checks his army cannot cash. But Trump seems unwilling to stamp them for insufficient funds.
Mass and meat assaults alone cannot win wars — at least not in the 21th century. Russian casualties are rapidly approaching the one million mark. Last weekend the Kremlin lost another 3,080 soldiers for a total of 976,780 to date. That contributed to the recent firing of Russian Chief of Land Forces, Col. Gen. Oleg Salyukov.
When defeated on the battlefields of Ukraine, Putin returns to the three tactics that yield immediate results: targeting Ukrainian civilians with ballistic missiles and drones, making nuclear threats, and diverting attention elsewhere.
This is why, on Sunday evening, the Kremlin launched its biggest drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Ukraine’s air force said Russia launched 273 drones targeting civilians in the central Kyiv region, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions in the east.
According to Ukraine intelligence, Russia announced its intent to conduct a “training and combat” launch of an RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile to “demonstratively pressure and intimidate Ukraine, and also EU and NATO member states.”
Then last week, reports circulated that Russian troops were massing along the border with Finland.
Russian demands in Istanbul were “unacceptable.” They will likely remain unacceptable even if both sides take up Pope Leo XIV’s offer to hold negotiations at the Vatican. None of the conditions for ceasefire that Russia will present to Ukraine will change.
Instead of chasing economic deals, Trump should have told Putin that the West is done playing Russian games — that effective immediately, the U.S. and NATO are implementing Sky Shield and resuming shipments of ammunition, weapons, and intelligence to Ukraine.
Now, European leaders must make that decision alone.
Putin is not interested in a ceasefire or peace deal; rather, as his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated: “Russia will accept nothing less than total victory over Ukraine.”
His presidential aide, Vladimir Medinsky, echoed that message in Istanbul, “Russia is prepared to fight forever.”
For Putin, peace is achieved only when Ukraine stops resisting. No ceasefire or peace deal will change that – look no further than Chechnya for proof.
The sooner Team Trump comes to that realization – the better.
As former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated on CBS News “Face the Nation,” “My own view, having dealt with him and having spent most of my life working on Russia and the Soviet Union, is Putin feels that he has a destiny to recreate the Russian Empire … And as my old mentor, Zbigniew Brzezinski once said, without Ukraine, there can be no Russian Empire.”
Trump is running out of excuses for Putin.
Ukraine can still defeat Russia, but Europe is in desperate need of a Winston Churchill right now. Images of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk seated around a table waiting on a Trump phone call, will not persuade Putin to abandon his efforts.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
