Experts are scratching their heads at President Trump’s ambitious, three-year timeline for Golden Dome, a next-generation missile defense system he says is essential for the future of U.S. security.
Intended to protect the skies over the continental United States, Golden Dome would mark a bold move into space, promising a network of space-based missiles launched from satellites to intercept missiles launched from the ground. But the expensive, untested technology is still years away from being fielded.
Such a system, as called for by Trump via a January executive order, would take far more than the “two and a half to three years” he boasted of in the Oval Office on Tuesday, according to Melanie Marlowe, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s Missile Defense Project.
“Golden Dome is not going to be an impenetrable missile shield across the entire United States of America,” Marlowe told The Hill, adding that the system will require both a short and long-term effort to come together.
Trump’s claims the system could be finished in three years is seen as lofty given the sheer amount of satellites needed to cover and protect the entire U.S. via sensing and tracking missiles — some 400 to more than 1,000 satellites Reuters reported.
Another 200 attack satellites armed with missiles or lasers would need to be built to knock down enemy armaments, the first time such weapons would be put in space. But that technology has yet to be demonstrated.
Marlowe said the two tracks in building out Golden Dome include a faster undertaking to ramp up munitions and missiles – which the U.S. has been expanding rapidly in the Red Sea in its strikes on Houthi militants in Yemen or shipped to Ukraine for its war with Russia – as well as radars and sensors to detect and track rapidly moving hypersonic threats.
While it’s feasible for those parts to be funded, some completed, and a lot of it at least started in three years, the system’s need for space-based interceptors will be a daunting challenge.
“We will not have space-based interceptors in three years,” she told The Hill. “That is a very challenging and expensive problem to solve. But if we start moving quickly, we can make good progress on getting missiles, radars, and satellite constellations in that timeframe.”
Also being questioned is Golden Dome’s purported $175 billion price tag, which Trump also announced on Tuesday. That number, the details of which are still unknown, is far below the estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, which pegged the figure at more than $500 billion over 20 years to develop.
And while the system is poised to receive $25 billion to jump-start its creation, money included in the GOP’s reconciliation bill passed by the House Thursday morning, it’s unclear how it will be funded past those initial dollars.
If there is not a lot of political support for Golden Dome the system is likely to end in three years, not be completed, Marlowe said.
“It would be wise for Republican supporters of the Golden Dome framework to reach across the aisle and find support from Democratic colleagues,” she said, noting that a lot of the systems built for Golden Dome would come from blue and purple states such as California, and Arizona.
“To be successful, this effort is going to require sustained funding and attention, beyond the next one or two election cycles.”
Others have warned that U.S. adversaries may be threatened by Golden Dome and seek to build their own similar space systems or to develop weapons to get around the missile shield.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson on Wednesday said Beijing is “seriously concerned” about Golden Dome and urged Washington to abandon the project.
“The United States, in pursuing a ‘U.S.-first’ policy, is obsessed with seeking absolute security for itself. This violates the principle that the security of all countries should not be compromised and undermines global strategic balance and stability. China is seriously concerned about this,” Mao Ning said at a press conference.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) brought up the issue with the U.S. military’s top missile defense officials earlier this month, remarking that Russia and China have publicly expressed concerns with U.S. missile defense systems.
“You’re going to spend billions of dollars of taxpayer money building things that could inspire the Russians to say, ‘Oh, we need to take them out before they get used.’ You better figure that out if you’re going to spend a lot of taxpayer money on this,” he said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
The system also is facing a potential hurdle with the current fight over government-controlled wireless frequencies.
Included in the reconciliation bill is language that would allow the U.S. government to auction off federally controlled spectrum – electromagnetic radio waves – that the Pentagon uses for its radars, missile defense and secure communications.
Selling off megahertz of spectrum to commercial telecommunications companies is projected to raise $88 billion to help fund Trump’s intended tax and spending changes, according to Republicans, but it could impede Golden Dome.
That’s what Katie Arrington, the Pentagon’s acting chief information officer, told lawmakers earlier this month, testifying that Golden Dome won’t work if the Defense Department doesn’t have control of the 3 gigahertz band of radio frequency spectrum, used for U.S. radar and missile defense systems.
“It is critical for national security,” Arrington said during a May 8 House Armed Services subcommittee hearing. “The only way we can achieve Golden Dome right now is having the lower three of the spectrum.”
Arrington said the military carries about 1,100 different platforms and weapons systems to protect national security on that spectrum.
“Those are prized, critical capabilities that we cannot lose,” she stressed. “That area of the spectrum is golden, and we need to protect it to maintain national security.”
