The song and dance surrounding the so-called Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Istanbul produced nothing substantive — as could easily have been predicted. It was arguably a waste of time and resources. But the charade did have two important consequences.
First, it proved beyond reasonable doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his entourage have no interest in a ceasefire or peace. Indeed, only a hopelessly out-of-touch ignoramus can still believe that Putin wants anything but war and genocide.
And second, the charade demonstrated that neither President Trump nor Putin holds “the cards”. Rather, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky does.
Though neither a superpower nor a has-been superpower, Ukraine is the only country that can effectively end the war. How? By removing what Putin calls the war’s “root causes.”
Putin’s envoy to Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, pulled no punches when he stated, “We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three, however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” Good luck reconciling not wanting war with the willingness to wage it for more than two decades. But Medinsky’s maximalist message comes through perfectly clearly.
Unsurprisingly, the envoy also insisted that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the four provinces that Russia only partially occupies and which it formally annexed in 2022. Ukraine could easily agree to Russia’s illegal occupation of the territories it controls, but there is no way that Ukraine — or any country — could agree to cede territory it legitimately holds.
And then there’s Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s erstwhile prime minister and president, the “good cop” to Putin’s “bad cop.” He has a long record of unhinged statements about Ukraine and the West. His latest social media gem was to say that the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Poland “were supposed to discuss peace in Kiev. Instead, they are blurting out threats against Russia. Either a truce for the respite of Banderite hordes [a reference to the Ukrainian nationalist underground that resisted the Soviets until the mid-1950s] or new sanctions. You think that’s smart, eh? Shove these peace plans up your pangender arses!”
Just what is a pangender arse is a mystery, but Medvedev’s vulgar message isn’t.
Vladimir Solovyov, a television talk show host who serves as Putin’s chief propagandist, called the same western leaders “dirtbags” and their countries “Nazi nations” that deserve to be incinerated. He ended his long tirade with the following remarkable confession: “You want a ceasefire, and I want your death.”
At least Solovyov, like Medinsky and Medvedev, was honest in presenting Russia’s approach to negotiating with Ukraine and Europe.
The Putin regime’s problem is that its unadulterated embrace of savagery denies it the cards it could have had if it had traded barbarism for civilization.
Russia cannot wage war forever. Indeed, given its staggering rate of losses in soldiers, tanks, armored personnel carriers and planes, Russia will be lucky to make it to 2026.
The stupidest thing that a country in the miserable condition of Putin Russia’s can do is to engage in empty bravado — the kind that may appeal to Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, but could begin to grate on the boss’s nerves. Were Putin to behave normally (an adverb Russians like), he’d have cards. But having demoted his country to a rogue state, he has lost his cards.
Trump, ironically, also has no cards. Having treated Putin to multiple carrots and no sticks, he is in no position to convince the Russian dictator to take negotiations seriously. In fact, the president’s negotiating style has enabled Putin to regard Trump as a weakling, play him for a fool and treat him with disdain. Like Putin, Trump deprived himself of the cards by acting stupidly.
In contrast to Putin and Trump, Zelensky has shown that he does hold the cards. He has expressed a willingness to compromise, negotiate peace and agree to an immediate ceasefire, thereby casting his Russian and U.S. counterparts as nincompoops.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces have effectively fought Russia to a standstill, while its military-industrial complex is well on the way to producing millions of drones and becoming self-sufficient with respect to armaments. Since Putin and Trump have effectively cancelled each other out, Zelensky now occupies the moral and political high ground and can influence, if not quite dictate, the terms of any possible negotiations.
More importantly, Ukraine can defeat Russia by continuing to stop its advances and thereby weakening its military beyond repair, undermining its economy and eliminating the real “root causes” of the conflict: Putin and his commitment to waging a genocidal war.
Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”
