The Missouri General Assembly is set to convene Wednesday to consider mid-decade redistricting after Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) officially called the awaited special session.
If approved, the new map proposal from Kehoe would likely net one Republican to the state’s congressional delegation. Although the difference between Missouri’s current map and the potential new one is just one seat, it could still be critical in what is expected to be a tough battle for control of the House next year.
Here’s what to know as Missouri moves forward with redistricting.
What are Missouri Republicans looking to do?
Kehoe said in announcing the special session that his goal with the map is to ensure Missouri’s “conservative, common-sense values” are represented at “all levels of government.” While Republicans already have unified control of the state government and both U.S. Senate seats, the new map likely would extend Republican dominance in the U.S. House.
Republicans occupy six of the state’s House seats, while Democrats have two. But the map would likely increase the margin to 7-1, pushing out Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who represents the 5th Congressional District in Kansas City.
The map does this by splitting some of the Kansas City area into a neighboring district and adding conservative-leaning rural areas to the east to the 5th District. It also shores up Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Mo.) 2nd Congressional District, which has leaned red but would become much more conservative.
What is the timeline?
Republicans have plenty of time to approve the new map ahead of the midterms.
The state’s primary isn’t until next August, relatively late compared to other states. The filing period for candidates running in a primary goes from late February through the end of March.
This means the Legislature would have months if necessary to get the new map passed.
How likely is it to pass?
Republicans dominate the state House and Senate, with more than a two-thirds majority in both, so if the GOP sticks together, it should be able to pass the new map without much difficulty.
So far, there doesn’t appear to be any major Republican opposition to the plan. Several state lawmakers in nearby Indiana have expressed some hesitancy about moving forward with their redistricting plan, casting some doubt on its future, but that hasn’t happened in Missouri.
That could change, but it would require more than a half-dozen Republican state senators and 30 Republican state House members to join with all Democrats to block it.
And the pressure the White House is placing on Republican-led states to redistrict makes that even more unlikely.
How are Dems responding?
Democrats’ tools to stop or at least slow down the plan are even more limited than in Texas. They could choose to leave the state as Texas Democrats did for weeks, but that wouldn’t stop the plan because Republicans have enough members to maintain quorum and conduct business.
State House Minority Leader Ashley Aune (D) told the Springfield-based NBC affiliate KY3 that Democrats are in touch with minority leaders in Ohio and Indiana to discuss what they can do “to ensure that folks across the country understand where the fight is.”
At the very least, Democrats have been united in vowing to fight back any way they can.
Cleaver, whose seat is being threatened, argued the new map is ignoring the 40 percent of Missourians who voted for a Democrat last year. He said he would not stop fighting for the people he represents, both in the courts and at the ballot box.
What happens next?
If Texas’s and California’s moves on redistricting were the opening shots of the battle, Missouri’s special session marks the beginning of what could become a full-blown war.
The new maps in Texas and California, if implemented, could neutralize each other, with both parties netting as many as five seats, respectively, so the winner of the battle could be decided in these other states like Missouri.
Ohio is already required to redistrict under state law, and Republicans appear likely to pick up two or three seats there. Florida could pick up a few more, and Indiana could add one or two if it goes forward.
Democratic states like Maryland could respond, but the GOP has more opportunities and is more likely to come out ahead at the end of this process. But court battles testing the constitutionality of these maps and the role of the Voting Rights Act could keep all of this up in the air for months.
