Congress is moving head-first toward a government shutdown after the Senate voted down a pair of stopgap spending bills, including a “clean” one proposed by the GOP to keep the lights on for seven weeks while appropriators hammer out a longer-term deal.
Lawmakers will be out of town for the next week before returning on the eve of the deadline, raising questions about whether there’s any chance they can avoid a shutdown when they return.
Here are five things to watch in the coming days as the shutdown deadline looms for lawmakers.
How long will Democrats hold out?
Democrats have made it abundantly clear they have zero interest in backing the GOP’s “clean” stopgap bill without alterations on a number of fronts — almost all of which Republicans have said are nonstarters.
The question is whether they’ll hold the line.
Democrats are demanding that deal at least included talks on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire at the end of December.
In March, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) shocked his party by backing the GOP-led spending bill.
But he came under enormous criticism, and he’s shown few signs of caving this time.
Schumer said the situation is “much different now” than it was in March and cited a trio of reasons: the rising unpopularity of the GOP’s tax and spending bill, unity among Democrats and actions by the Trump administration on rescissions.
Still, Democrats are taking a risk in blocking the GOP’s funding bill, which has majority support in the House and Senate. There’s a decent chance in this shutdown that Democrats will get the blame.
“There’s unity right now. We’ll see,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). “We’re united in our opposition here. There’s obviously real concern about any kind of shutdown. Democrats have always been in favor of passing legislation to keep the lights on, but we’re dealing in an uncharted territory here with a president who has made it clear — he favors a shutdown.”
Republican messaging consistency
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have staked out a clear-cut message in the weeks leading up to the deadline: Take our “clean” continuing resolution (CR) or risk shutting down the government.
The two have been consistent as Senate Democrats voted down the seven-week CR, putting lawmakers on a collision course with a shutdown.
When pressed prior to the vote about the choice Democrats have, Thune intimated it was a simple one and that it’s a black-and-white one.
“The choice is pretty clear. It’s going to be funding the government through a clean, short-term continuing resolution or a government shutdown,” Thune said.
Shortly after the failed votes on Friday, Thune turned around and prepped another vote on the same package for the chamber’s return on Sept. 29. He can bring the seven-week CR up for a tally daily if he so chooses.
He also moved to set up votes on a bill aimed at eliminating government shutdowns, further raising eyebrows in the Capitol.
If the government does shut down, Republicans could also put the squeeze to Democrats by bringing to the floor measures that would underscore the pain a shutdown is causing, such as a bill to pay the military while the government is closed.
The blame game
History has not been kind to Republicans when it comes to government shutdowns.
Nearly seven years ago, Trump and the GOP drove the political world into the longest shutdown in U.S. history (35 days) over their insistence that funds to build the border wall be included in the government funding package.
The effort proved unsuccessful, with Trump being forced to back reopening of the government when the lack of air traffic controllers prompted significant flight cancellations and delays.
In 2013, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and conservatives caused a shutdown that lasted more than two weeks due to their attempt to defund the Affordable Care Act (ACA), often called ObamaCare. That effort also left Republicans with the larger piece of blame pie, with Democrats making life difficult for the GOP throughout that stretch.
This time, Republicans think they can flip the script.
Thune noted to The Hill on Friday that losers in shutdown fights are “usually the party that’s trying to do something” extraneous on a spending bill.
“The times we’ve won, the Democrats are trying to add something. … They’re trying to add all this partisan stuff in,” Thune said, having recently labeled the Democratic proposal “filthy.”
Is there room to maneuver on ACA credits?
Democrats have insisted that any government funding package must include an extension of enhanced health insurance premium subsidies under the ACA. If those subsidies disappear, it will likely mean a spike in premiums, which some Republicans have signaled they are skittish about.
Thune and Johnson have maintained that a fix is off the table in this negotiation and that they want to keep the CR as “clean” as possible.
Amid this crosstalk, members are wondering if there is a potential middle ground.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is retiring next year, is among those on the right who believe a fix of some sort is needed before Dec. 31.
Among the ideas is a bipartisan solution that could be paired with a full-year funding bill later this year. That deal could be inked in late November when the GOP’s CR ends, or another time.
“I think so,” Tillis said at that possibility.
Thune did not shut the door to the idea, telling reporters before Friday’s votes that the issue will be “addressed” — just not now.
“I think the ACA subsidies will be an issue that will be addressed, but I think right now we’ve got to keep the government open so we can do appropriations bills and work on that, with that solution,” he said.
The GOP leader added he would “be happy to sit down” with Schumer, but that the Democratic leader must have a good “reason” for a face-to-face discussion.
What does Trump do?
How Trump handles the days leading up to Sept. 30, the shutdown deadline, is the wild card.
The president has largely given Thune and Johnson room to operate in a bid to get the seven-week CR across the finish line.
But if Trump gets antsy or things move in a direction he dislikes, he could always throw his weight around on a spending matter — just as he has in the past.
For example, Trump in 2018 initially caved and accepted a spending bill that did not include border wall funds, only to reverse course after pressure from conservatives. That prompted the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
One issue Trump has not weighed in on is the ACA subsidies. If he does, it could toss a major wrench into discussions, especially if he calls for negotiations on an extension.
For now, Trump is blaming Democrats for what may be coming down the rails.
“You could very well end up with a closed country for a period of time,” he told reporters on Friday.
