Voters are heading to the polls in New Jersey on Tuesday to choose nominees for the state’s gubernatorial race, one of only two in the country this year.
The Democratic primary, which features a half-dozen candidates, has remained highly competitive, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) as the front-runner, while the Republican race seems likely settled as President Trump weighed in to endorse front-runner Jack Ciattarelli.
Various other primaries are also taking place that could hint at whether the state continues its anti-establishment push that it’s seen over the past year.
Here are five things to watch for in New Jersey’s primaries Tuesday:
Who wins the Democratic gubernatorial primary?
The Democratic race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has been hotly contested for months, but Sherrill, a four-term House member, enters primary day as the slight favorite.
She’s consistently led in polling and has started to pull away a bit in the most recent polls, taking as much as a double-digit lead over her next closest opponent. She’s also backed by most of the county parties in the population-heavy North Jersey.
But there are some reasons for the other candidates, particularly Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, to hope they can secure victory.
Even with Sherrill’s leads, a quarter or more of voters have said they’re undecided, potentially giving someone else an opening, though surveys have shown some late deciders leaning toward Sherrill. An independent poll of the race hasn’t been conducted since an Emerson College survey from early last month, possibly obscuring a late shift in the race.
And Fulop has received widespread attention for the grassroots campaign he’s sought to run, branding himself as an outsider trying to shake things up. He’s hoping that message will resonate with voters in the aftermath of the state undergoing a major anti-establishment push last year, which saw the election of Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) on a similar message.
Kim and his fellow Democratic Sen. Cory Booker declined to endorse a candidate in the primary.
How much of the vote will Ciattarelli win?
The 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Ciattarelli entered the 2025 race as the favorite to win the nomination again and hasn’t given up his advantage since.
He’s led in polling by significant margins over his next closest opponent, former talk radio host Bill Spadea, and enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage. His likely renomination seems all but assured with Trump formally backing him last month.
But Tuesday will still test how unified the GOP is behind Ciattarelli. He’s faced attacks from Spadea of not being “MAGA” enough and supportive enough of Trump.
Ciattarelli was once a sharper critic of Trump but has gradually become more favorable toward him.
He outperformed expectations four years ago when he came within 3 points of defeating Murphy for reelection, and he and other Republicans are hoping to build on gains they’ve made in the state recently.
But Ciattarelli will need as much backing as he can receive to win in the still blue-leaning New Jersey.
Will Fulop-backed candidates remake the state Assembly?
Along with his gubernatorial run, Fulop has taken the unusual step of endorsing a slate of progressive candidates in the General Assembly, another test of where the state stands politically.
Fulop has thrown his support behind a mix of progressive incumbents and challengers in the primaries under the slogan “Democrats for Change.” If widely successful, the candidates could significantly reshape the makeup of the Assembly next year.
“The political establishment, they hate that I’m supporting people downballot because it creates accountability, but it’s good for you,” he told supporters at one campaign event.
Fulop said he’s running in a different lane “that’s never been tested in New Jersey.”
In many cases, the Fulop-backed candidates are facing off against candidates backed by the county party and Murphy himself. A major statewide candidate simultaneously getting involved in downballot races is a rarity in New Jersey, one with uncertain impacts but part of Fulop’s wider vision for the state.
Will an indicted mayor fend off a primary challenge?
Atlantic City is no stranger to its mayors facing legal scrutiny, and its voters will decide the political fate of another one on Tuesday.
Mayor Marty Small Sr. (D) is running for reelection to a second term in office, but he’s doing so under criminal indictment based on allegations that he physically and emotionally abused his teenage daughter. Prosecutors allege he hit her on the head with a broom multiple times, causing her to lose consciousness, among other incidents.
His wife, Atlantic City School District Superintendent La’Quetta Small, has also been accused of abusing their daughter and charged in the case.
Marty Small Sr. is facing a primary challenge from Bob McDevitt, a former longtime head of a casino workers union.
Small has pleaded not guilty to the charges he faces and told the Philadelphia-based NBC10 that he doesn’t think the allegations will be an issue for voters, saying: “The voters know who I am.”
Policy issues like public safety and the city’s cleanliness have taken center stage, with Small emphasizing to the outlet the city’s progress in reducing crime. McDevitt, meanwhile, has sought to underscore the fear people still have regarding crime.
Has county party power weakened?
Regardless of the results of the gubernatorial and legislative primaries, Tuesday will be an early test for a new chapter in New Jersey’s political history.
A political earthquake took place last year when a federal judge struck down the state’s long-standing “county line” ballot design that critics argued gave a preferential ballot spot to the county-endorsed candidate. The judge agreed the ballot design gave party-endorsed candidates a “distinct advantage,” violating the integrity of the democratic process.
The new ballots, in use since last year’s primaries, organize candidates by the office they’re seeking, but candidates can still run under slogans making clear they’re the choice of the county party. The county parties also still exert some influence in candidates receiving critical endorsements from top officials.
But an open Democratic gubernatorial primary will be one of the first real tests of county party power. While Sherrill won most county endorsements in the north, former state Senate President Steve Sweeney won most in South Jersey.
If Sherrill, Sweeney and the other candidates largely win the counties where they’re endorsed, it could signal lingering power of the endorsement even without the line. If they don’t, it could indicate a wider shake-up in state political power.