Last week, President Trump signaled that he would soon make the most consequential foreign policy decision of his presidency, whether or not to order the U.S. military to strike Iran.
In no uncertain terms, this decision may ultimately have greater impact than former President Biden’s unilateral withdrawal from Afghanistan in summer 2021. Biden’s polling numbers never recovered from the chaos that unfolded at that time.
With that in mind, it is important and instructive to look at what the polls say about how Americans feel about Trump’s presidency thus far, both generally and on key issues such as foreign policy.
Roughly six months into his second term, new polling shows that support for Trump has declined across the board and on key issues. Indeed, despite Trump’s assertions that his approval ratings hit “all-time highs,” the numbers tell a different story.
Trump began his second term with 51 percent approval versus 44 percent disapproval, but now, those numbers have reversed.
Just over half (52 percent) of Americans now disapprove of his job performance, compared to only 40 percent who approve — a net 19-point drop-off, according to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator.
To be sure, as chaos spreads in the Middle East and the question of American involvement hangs in the air, Trump’s support on foreign policy is also critical. At the start of Trump’s term, Ipsos polling showed Trump with a net plus-2 rating (39 percent to 37 percent), likely due to his promises to end wars and deliver peace through strength. Early on, he seemed to be delivering. He was instrumental in securing a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and oversaw the return of multiple Israeli hostages.
According to polling from Data for Progress (Jan. 17-18), a plurality of Americans — 49 percent — credited Trump rather than Biden with the Israel-Hamas cease-fire.
For context, Biden ended his presidency with a minus-18 point approval rating for his handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Trump started his with a plus 12 percent approval rating on the same issue.
Half a year later, Trump is practically on par with Biden on the conflict, at minus-17 — a 29-point net swing against him, according to Quinnipiac.
Looking specifically at Trump’s handling of Iran, 41 percent disapprove, versus 37 percent who approve, according to polling from YouGov.
It is not that Americans disagree with Trump’s perception of Iran as a threat. In fact, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) say they are worried about the threat Iran poses to U.S. national security, up 13 points from last year, according to polling from Fox News.
But Americans’ fear of the prospect of another forever war in the Middle East seems to be weighing on the mood.
That same Fox poll, conducted last weekend, shows that Trump has lost the public’s trust in another key issue area: the economy. Likely due to the chaos and uncertainty unleashed by Trump’s tariff policy, a majority (58 percent) of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, while just 40 percent approve, a significant decline for one of Trump’s former strengths.
In fact, the 18-point margin of discontent is the worst spread Trump has seen in either of his terms.
And it does not appear that Trump’s cornerstone legislation, the “big, beautiful bill,” will help. Six in 10 Americans (59 percent) oppose it, and 49 percent think that the bill will “hurt” their families economically.
Just as the economy went from a strength to a vulnerability, Trump’s polling has also seen a reversal on immigration, a crucial issue that largely propelled Trump to victory last November.
Americans are increasingly concerned about the administration’s heavy-handed approach to immigration.
This is not to say that Americans dislike Trump’s policies generally; a majority (51 percent) approve of Trump’s handling of the border, per NBC polling. And exceptionally strong support (87 percent) remains for deporting migrants who commit crimes, according to Economist-YouGov polling.
Yet Americans are turned off by the administration’s response to protests in Los Angeles specifically, and the belief that the administration is being too cavalier about whom it is deporting.
The same poll shows that 57 percent believe the administration is making mistakes in whom it is deporting, and 74 percent say the government needs to make sure there are no mistakes in deportations.
Taken together, polling six months into Trump 2.0 shows that many of his former points of pride and political strengths have lost considerable support among all but his most ardent supporters.
But it would be a mistake to say the rest of Trump’s presidency is doomed. Tariff uncertainty is likely to fade, either because people stop paying attention or due to signed trade deals.
In that same vein, it’s entirely possible that views on the economy rebound if the “big, beautiful bill” delivers on Trump’s pro-growth agenda.
Moreover, tensions in the Middle East will eventually come to a head, with or without American involvement. Fears of a forever war in Iran are misguided, and it’s still not at all certain that Trump will commit American forces.
Finally, Trump is greatly assisted by the fact that Democrats are still unable to develop a compelling and politically viable alternative. Still reeling from their loss in November, the party continues to struggle to find its way and challenge Trump’s excesses.
Six months may just be too short a time period to predict the course of the next three and a half years. But it remains useful and informative to gauge the mood of the electorate at this delicate time.
Whether or not Trump can reverse this downward trend remains to be seen. It will be extremely compelling to watch.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”