Just two weeks ago, it would have been inconceivable that a day on which Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base would also be seen as a day of de-escalation.
But that was the bizarre nature of Monday, when Iran targeted the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East but did so in a way that seemed purely symbolic. By day’s end, President Trump had announced a ceasefire between the Islamic Republic and Israel.
There are a host of questions still to be answered. The most pressing of them revolve around the nature of the ceasefire Trump has declared, whether both sides truly have agreed to it, what the conditions are, and how long it will last.
The head-spinning sequence of events had its first moment of high drama with the Iranian attack. It comprised 14 missiles, according to Trump, and it caused no injuries and came with a prior warning.
Trump responded with a social media post that, although couched in his characteristically unconventional terms, offered an off-ramp from the crisis.
In the post, Trump explicitly offered his thanks to Iran for “giving us early notice” even as he derided the apparent feebleness of the Iran’s “very weak response, which was expected.”
More significantly, Trump said now that Iran had “gotten it all out of their ‘system,’” there was a possibility that “Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”
Capping it all off, Trump contended around 6 p.m. EDT that there was a “fully agreed” upon ceasefire, which he said would begin before midnight.
There are longer-term questions, beyond the specifics of the apparent truce.
Was the enriched uranium at the heart of the crisis really destroyed, or have the Iranians preserved a substantial amount of it? What would Iran be willing to agree to as the price of a more stable peace? Will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu really back off his nation’s attacks on Iran, potentially allowing the current regime in Tehran to regroup and rebuild?
All that being said, the grimmest predictions as to how Iran might react to the bombings from Israel and the U.S. — and how the region could spiral ever closer to the abyss — now look overblown.
U.S. troops and embassies in the region did not come under a truly threatening barrage. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, did not get blocked. The ominous threat of terroristic covert attacks did not materialize.
The relief was economic as well as political — even before Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
U.S. stock markets rose sharply as the limited nature of the Iranian attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar became clear.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite all closed the day almost 1 percent up. Just as importantly for the U.S. and global economies, the price of oil fell sharply as fears of a prolonged and intense war receded.
Presumably, there will be an even greater relief rally on Tuesday in the U.S. stock markets, which had closed before Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
There will almost surely be a political dividend for Trump, too — assuming the promised ceasefire does not suddenly lurch off course.
He will without question claim victory, arguing that U.S. involvement struck a decisive blow against Iran’s nuclear capabilities but that the brevity of the effort ensures American forces will not be drawn into another Middle Eastern quagmire.
Another near certainty: He will mock his detractors, in the media and Washington establishment, for predictions of doom that he appears, once again, to have defied.
That, in turn, will help bind up the political wounds that had opened up within his MAGA coalition.
At times in the past week, tensions between the anti-interventionist, ‘America First’ faction represented by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) looked likely to boil over, amid acrimony with more conventional GOP hawks like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).
Full loyalty to Trump, which has become the GOP’s driving principle since he came back to win a second term, will be restored.
Even so, there are still plenty of unknown elements.
One is the Netanyahu factor. Trump joined the Israeli prime minister’s de facto war on Iran. But there is every reason to think Netanyahu still harbors a more expansive desire to drive the theocrats who rule Iran from power, not merely defang their nuclear capabilities.
Ceasefire or not, divining exactly where the Trump administration stands is made all but impossible by Trump’s volatility.
Consider the past 48 hours.
On Sunday morning, three of his most senior allies — Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — emphasized that the U.S. bombing from the previous night had not been aimed at forcing regime change.
Yet, just hours later, Trump mused about the idea on social media, writing that it was “not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’” but “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???”
By Monday, following the muted Iranian response to the American attack, Trump wrote: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
And then came the ceasefire.
Trump would, presumably, like to simply boast that he has won a historic victory and refocus on his domestic agenda.
But that quest is complicated by the uncertainty around the ceasefire – and by a Middle East still roiled daily by the horrors of Gaza, where Israel has killed an estimated 55,000 people after Hamas killed around 1,200 Israelis in the attacks of Oct. 7, 2023
Even if an uneasy peace settles between Iran and Israel, there is no credible reason to presume the peace will extend to Gaza. What, if anything, does Turmp do about that?
All that’s certain for now is that a series of fundamental world events have happened in the blink of an eye – and that the picture is still far from settled.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.