President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded their long-awaited phone call on Sept. 19. According to Trump, the U.S. and China made unspecified “progress” on issues ranging from tariffs to fentanyl to TikTok.
But although meaningful results on these issues would be welcome, the U.S. faces a much larger challenge. Xi is doubling down on his efforts to align the world’s most powerful dictators against America, and we are reaching a dangerous inflection point — one that could send the world veering toward a catastrophic conflict.
Earlier this month, with the autocratic chiefs of Russia and North Korea at his side, Xi presided over a momentous summit in Beijing. They had ostensibly gathered to watch a grand military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. But behind the spectacle, Xi’s sweeping ambitions to reshape the global order were no doubt high on the agenda. Although its full implications remain to be seen, the summit felt ominous.
After the parade, Xi declared that “justice, light, and progress will inevitably triumph over evil, darkness, and regression.” He later added that “transformation unseen in a century is accelerating across the world.” The words were vague, but the message was clear: With America in retreat, Beijing and its partners are edging closer to confrontation.
The summit talks remain secret, but it is not hard to imagine what they may have discussed. Russian President Vladimir Putin almost certainly pressed for more robust Chinese backing in Ukraine. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un undoubtedly looked for support as he races ahead with new nuclear capabilities. And Xi likely sought assurances for his aggressive ambitions in Taiwan and the South China Sea.
What unites them is a growing belief that America will not stand in their way.
The results were immediate. A week after the Beijing summit, Russian military drones swerved into Polish territory, sparking NATO fighters to shoot them down. Days later, Beijing laid claims to Scarborough Shoal, potentially paving the way for new military construction in contested waters in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, North Korea unveiled a new missile fuel engine, strengthening its nuclear arsenal and heightening risks on the Korean Peninsula.
These moves reflect broader trends working in China’s favor. Despite launching an unprovoked invasion and committing atrocities in Ukraine, Putin was warmly embraced by other global leaders attending the summit in Beijing, as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting that preceded it. Far from being isolated, Russia has adapted to sanctions, found new markets, and kept its economy afloat. For Xi, the lesson is obvious: it is possible to start a war and still maintain global influence.
Even more troubling is the world’s dependence on China. Decades of offshoring and expanding trade ties have given Beijing leverage over critical industries, from medicine to clean energy. Xi has learned from Russia’s experience: if Putin can endure isolation, it would be nearly impossible for the West to sustain sanctions against a far more economically integrated China.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has weakened the institutions that the U.S. has relied on to counter Beijing’s influence, gutting agencies such as USAID, the Voice of America, and the Foreign Malign Influence Center. And Trump’s erratic tariff policies have antagonized allies and alienated critical partners like India. For China, America’s retreat is a strategic windfall.
With Washington on its back foot, Beijing is seizing the chance to build its own system of alliances. The summit showed that this strategy is gaining traction. U.S. deterrence is waning, and the world’s dictators are growing bolder. By pushing our allies away, we multiply the risk of conflict — precisely what Xi and his partners are counting on as they press their vision of an authoritarian order, using force if necessary.
The echoes of history are unmistakable. Adolf Hitler’s 1937 summit with Benito Mussolini in Berlin, unremarkable at the time, helped set the stage for World War II. A decade later, the Kremlin’s meeting of communist leaders in Poland paved the way for the Warsaw Pact and the beginning of the Cold War. What may have looked like pageantry in Beijing could prove just as consequential.
America must wake up. Conflict is not inevitable. But preventing it will require a clear-eyed strategy — one that goes beyond endless calls without demonstrable outcomes. Instead, we must act boldly to bolster our deterrence posture, reduce our dependence on China and revitalize our alliances. We cannot be weak in the face of authoritarian aggression. History will not forgive us if we allow Xi, Putin and their enablers to plunge the world into another era of endless war.
Raja Krishnamoorthi, a congressman from Illinois, is the ranking member of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.
