Democratic senators increasingly see shutting down the government to send a message to President Trump as a political necessity, Democratic aides and strategists say.
These frustrated Democrats think they need to do something drastic to push back on the Trump administration and buck up their own demoralized voters — and the looming, Sept. 30 government funding deadline may be one of their best remaining chances.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) thinks the hardline Democratic strategy is starting to pay off after Trump agreed to meet with Democratic leaders at the White House Monday, something the president had previously refused to do.
“We’ve been resolute that we need a meeting, that we need a real negotiation, that you don’t do this by one party putting together a completely partisan bill, and saying, take it or leave it. So, they felt the heat,” Schumer told NBC’s “Meet the Press” in an interview Sunday.
He warned that if Trump uses the meeting to score political points, Democrats would again defeat a House-passed government funding bill that needs to pass by Tuesday to avoid a shutdown.
“If the president at this meeting is going to rant and just yell at Democrats and talk about all his alleged grievances and say this, that, and the other thing, we won’t get anything done. But my hope is it will be a serious negotiation,” Schumer said.
A group of centrist Democratic senators, however, are leery about their leadership’s bare-knuckled approach to this week’s funding deadline.
A few centrists, including Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), have quietly put out feelers to their Republican colleagues in hopes of finding some off-ramp from the government funding stalemate.
Shaheen is the lead Democratic sponsor of legislation to permanently extend the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits, which are due to expire at the end of the year and have emerged as a top Democratic demand in the spending stalemate. Experts predict that some families will see their monthly health insurance premiums increase by hundreds of dollars a month if the subsidies lapse.
Centrists Democrats who want to avoid a crippling government shutdown on Oct. 1 hope that if Republicans give them good-faith assurances to negotiate an extension of the subsides this fall, it would open the door to a group of them voting for a Republican-drafted seven-week spending bill.
Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), a prominent centrist Republican who supports extending the health insurance premium subsidies, has talked to colleagues in both parties over the past week.
But the lack of negotiations among Trump and Republicans and Democratic leaders on a potential funding deal is a “big hold up,” according to one person familiar with the state of play.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), another key GOP centrist, has proposed a framework for avoiding a shutdown that includes extending the enhanced premium tax credits for one year.
Her plan would also address the Office of Management and Budget’s proposed pocket rescission — something that Democrats want to tackle head on — by extending the availability of the funds targeted by OMB Director Russell Vought.
Murkowski traveled overseas during the Rosh Hashanah recess and is expected to have more opportunity to talk to Democratic colleagues about a possible compromise when the Senate reconvenes on Monday.
Senate Republicans control 53 seats and they would need at least eight Democratic votes to avoid a shutdown because Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he will vote against the funding measure because it prolongs Biden-era spending levels.
A senior Democratic aide said they would be “surprised” if there are enough Democratic votes to pass the House-passed continuing resolution to fund government through Nov. 21.
Even though many Democrats want to avoid a shutdown, they maintain a strong sense of loyalty toward Schumer, who has urged them to stay unified in opposition to a House-passed stopgap funding measure to pressure GOP leaders to make concessions on health care.
If a significant number of Senate Democrats vote for the funding stopgap — which House Republicans drafted without any bipartisan input — it would be a direct slap at Schumer’s leadership, say Democratic strategists.
One Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to comment on discussions within the Senate Democratic caucus said that Democratic senators have an array of different opinions about how to handle the looming shutdown vote.
“There’s a free-for-all in terms of Democratic thoughts on what should happen on this,” the source said.
The source said there’s “a possibility” that as many eight Democrats could buck their leadership and vote for the Republican funding stopgap.
“Unity right now is not great, that’s part of the problem. I could see a few people coalescing together and saying, ‘We don’t want to do this,’” the strategist said, referring to Democrats who are reluctant to vote against the continuing resolution and triggering a shutdown.
Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who previously served as a leadership aide in both the Senate and House, said Democrats would have a weak hand if they defeat the funding measure and trigger a shutdown.
“Trump and the Republicans are moving faster than the Democrats can react,” he said, noting that Democrats “tried to capitalize” on Trump’s refusal to meet with Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) last week.
Trump quickly outflanked his Democratic opponents by changing the conversation with a memo issued by the Office of Management and Budget directing agencies to prepare for mass layoffs of federal workers at programs not aligned with the president’s priorities.
That move immediately put Democrats on the defensive and drove a wedge between progressives, who are eager to shut down the government to send a message to Trump, and centrists who are worried about federal workers in their home states getting laid off.
Schumer, who voted for a GOP-drafted six-month government funding measure in March because he feared a shutdown would give Trump too much power, has argued to colleagues in recent days that the political dynamics of late September are a lot different than they were earlier this year.
He still acknowledges that Trump would have more power if the government shuts down but he now says Trump is going to attempt to exercise sweeping power no matter what — whether or not the government is open, and whether or not he has legal authority to do so, according to a person familiar with the internal discussions.
Schumer is also predicting that the courts will overturn efforts by the White House to use a shutdown as a justification to lay off thousands of federal employees.
Schumer has insisted for weeks that the Senate Democratic caucus is “unified” in demanding an extension of the ACA subsidies and a restoration of nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts. If Democratic colleagues break from their leadership this week, it would represent a significant blow to his authority.
Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.) was the only Democrat to support the House Republican-drafted continuing resolution when it came to the Senate floor on Sept. 19. The Pennsylvania Democrat made it clear at the start of the funding debate that he would not vote in a way to allow the government to shut down.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says he is prepared to “address” the issue of the expiring health care premium tax credits later this year but he has repeatedly said he doesn’t want the issue attached to the funding stopgap that needs to pass by the Sept. 30 deadline.
Thune wants any extension of the enhanced tax credits offset paired with reforms to address waste and fraud under the ACA.
Thune reiterated his views about extending the expiring subsidies during an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that aired Sunday.
“Set the American people free, keep the government open, and then let’s have a conversation about those premium tax credits,” he said.
He said the health insurance premium subsidies program is “desperately in need of reform” and “fraught with waste, fraud and abuse.”
“We are going to have … reforms if we take action there. But I think there’s potentially a path forward,” he said.
