Centrist Democrats fear their party could blunder into a government shutdown this month as Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) are taking a hard line on the government funding package that needs to pass by Sept. 30.
Democrats broadly agree the looming expiration of enhanced health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act — combined with deep cuts to Medicaid that Republicans enacted through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — will hit millions of Americans with higher health care costs.
But they are divided over whether to derail a short-term continuing resolution to keep the government funded in October unless Republicans agree to spend tens of billions of dollars in additional health care spending.
One Democratic senator who requested anonymity to comment on political dynamics within the Senate Democratic Caucus said progressives who are angling to run for president have pushed for the most confrontational approach with Republicans.
“Most people want to avoid brinkmanship except some of those people who may be running for president because I think people understand that it’s important to keep the government operating,” the lawmaker said.
The senator said it’s “not clear” how voting against a short-term clean funding measure and forcing a government shutdown would give Democrats more leverage over Republicans on the looming expiration of the Affordable Care Act subsidies.
The senator argued the possibility that health care costs for millions of Americans could increase substantially in 2026 should be dealt with through the regular appropriations process, which would move forward if Democrats agree to short-term deal to fund the government through October or into November or December.
“If we have a short-term CR, hopefully we’ll agree to something,” the senator said of the possibility of reaching a deal on health care spending later this year.
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) warned this week it would be “wrong” for Democrats to force a government shutdown if they don’t get what they want on health care.
“It was wrong for the Republicans to do it. It’s wrong for us to do it, too,” he told a reporter for HuffPost.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) said she’s not prepared to vote to shut down the government if Republicans refuse to extend the enhanced health insurance subsidies, as some of her colleagues are threatening.
“I haven’t gotten that far yet, I want to see the Republicans’ offer right now,” she said.
“I think there a lot of scenarios that could play out. At the end of the day, for me, it is the impact on Americans. How do we ensure and show then that we can work in a bipartisan way, which is what they want?” she added.
She said Republicans need to come forward with a more specific plan.
“I don’t think anybody wants to shut down the government, honestly. I think it’s about working together still and trying to get things done. I’m hopeful that’s where we go from here,” she said.
Rep. Richard Neal (D-Mass.), the ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, told Politico on Thursday that Democratic leaders are coalescing around a plan to insist that any funding measure to keep the government funded past September include significant concessions from Republicans on health care, such as an extension of the beefed-up health insurance subsidies.
Schumer and Jeffries told reporters after a leadership meeting Thursday morning that Republicans need to make big concessions on health care.
“On this issue, we’re totally united. The Republicans have to come to meet with us in a true bipartisan negotiation to satisfy the American people’s needs on health care or they won’t get our votes, plain and simple,” Schumer warned at a press conference on the House side of the Capitol.
Jeffries echoed Schumer’s ultimatum.
“We will not support a partisan spending agreement that continues to rip away health care from the American people. Period. Full stop,” he warned.
But more centrist Democrats from swing states aren’t talking so tough.
“We need a bipartisan approach to this and my Republican colleagues, I think they know what they need to do,” said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).
Kelly stopped short of drawing a hard line on voting for a government funding resolution only if it extends the ObamaCare subsidies or adds tens of billions of dollars back to Medicaid, which Republicans cut substantially with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“It should be Democrats and Republicans working together to correct some of things that have happened over the last six months that I think have really hurt the American people,” he said.
Centrist Democrats from Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona have to consider a different political calculus than Schumer, Jeffries and Neal — members of leadership who hail from the deep-blue states of New York and Massachusetts.
Schumer has to worry about attacks from his left flank after he was sharply criticized in March for voting for a partisan House-GOP crafted government funding measure.
The New York Democrat argued at the time that a government shutdown would play into President Trump’s favor by giving him and his political advisers nearly unfettered power to slash agency budgets, reorganize federal offices and furlough government workers.
“Under a shutdown, the Trump administration would have full authority to deem whole agencies, programs, and personnel ‘nonessential,’ furloughing staff with no promise they would ever be rehired,” Schumer argued on the Senate floor in March.
“A shutdown would give Donald Trump the keys to the city, the state and the country,” he warned.
Some centrist Democrats are privately wondering why this nightmare scenario would play out any differently in October if Congress fails to reach a funding deal.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said he doesn’t want to see a government shutdown, but he argued the clean continuing resolution Republicans are floating would fail to address the spending cuts to government programs enacted by the continuing resolution passed in March and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“We’re not threatening a government shutdown, let’s be clear about that,” he said.
“I think the notion that it’s a clean CR is misleading,” he said of the Republican proposal. “There’s no such thing as a clean CR, in a sense.”
“I’d like to see us start with a conversation [among leaders], which so far hasn’t happened in earnest,” he added.
Warnock, who on Thursday co-hosted a bipartisan barbecue lunch with Democratic and Republican colleagues in the Kennedy Caucus Room, said he hopes cooler heads will prevail before funding expires this month.
“Maybe we can figure it out over the barbecue,” he said, trying to sound optimistic about a resolution.
