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Dems See Opportunity in 2028 – and a Wide Open Race

by The editor•6 August 2025•Posted inReal Clear Politics

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Politico

Mamdani makes Trump his general election target
With help from Amira McKeeMAMDANI'S BIG FOIL: Affordability was at the center of Zohran Mamdani’s primary campaign for New York City mayor. Donald Trump is the focus of his general election bid. The Democratic nominee launched a five-borough tour “against Trump” on Monday to amplify how he believes the president will bring harm to New York City — and why he thinks he should be elected to lead the vanguard. He’s also tying opponents Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa closely to Trump, adopting a classic Democratic general election playbook by casting two fellow Dems and the GOP nominee as the president’s favored picks. Mamdani’s recalibration comes as Trump announced he’s activating the National Guard to respond to crime in Washington, D.C., listing New York and Chicago among the cities that could be next in line. It also follows a New York Times story about how Trump has talked with Cuomo as the president considers involving himself with the election. Cuomo has denied discussing the race with Trump. “We see far too many parallels between Donald Trump and Andrew Cuomo, far too many stories that make clear that both administrations have been characterized by corruption, by a sense of impunity,” Mamdani told reporters Monday at the offices of 1199SEIU, which endorsed Cuomo in the primary but is backing Mamdani in the general election. The young state assemblymember who stunned the Democratic establishment by defeating Cuomo in June — despite the former governor’s universal name recognition and a $25 million PAC in his corner — now faces the task of winning the November election by a hefty enough margin to bolster his mandate. Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is still seeking the endorsements of party leaders, including Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. But with or without them, he’s going after Trump — and anyone he argues would be used by Trump against New Yorkers. He noted Monday that Cuomo conversed with Trump, Adams’ criminal fraud case was dropped at the urging of the Trump administration and that Sliwa shares a political party with the president. “My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” Mamdani declared just last week, arguing his policies will lift up the same working class voters the president has left behind with cuts to health care and food benefits. Trump has questioned Mamdani’s citizenship, vowed to arrest him if he interferes with federal agents’ crackdown on illegal immigration and threatened to cut federal funding to New York City if Mamdani doesn’t “do the right thing.” Cuomo, making another bid for mayor after losing by nearly 13 points in June to Mamdani, has argued that Trump would step all over Mamdani. Cuomo said he already stood up to Trump as governor during the Covid pandemic. “Trump will flatten him like a pancake,” Cuomo posted on X. (He used another food simile in a June primary debate, saying Trump would cut into Mamdani “like a hot knife through butter.”) Adams, the incumbent mayor, has said he is not beholden to anyone, including the president. He has insisted that he seeks a working relationship with Trump for the benefit of the city. And Sliwa, the longshot Republican making a repeat bid for mayor, has no direct relationship with Trump at all. In fact, the GOP nominee has encouraged Trump to stay out of the race for mayor. “Comrade Mamdani is the American people’s worst nightmare,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson responded Monday, charging that Mamdani’s policies will tank the economy, increase crime and favor undocumented immigrants over American citizens. — Emily NgoPROGRESS IN READING AND MATH: The nation’s largest school system saw notable gains in reading and math scores this year, but disparities persist among Black, Hispanic and disabled students, according to results announced by New York City officials today. About 56.3 percent of third through eighth graders were proficient in English during the 2024-25 school year, a 7.2 percentage point increase from the previous year, according to the latest data. Last school year’s figures represented a nearly 3 percentage point decrease from the year before — and coincided with the rollout of a new reading curriculum. Math scores continued to rise, with 56.9 percent of students meeting standards, compared to 53.4 percent last year and 49.9 percent in 2023. Schools Chancellor Melissa Aviles-Ramos acknowledged there were some "implementation hiccups" in the beginning. "These numbers are telling us — both in [NYC] Reads and [NYC] Solves — that we're heading in the right direction, but work still needs to be done,” she said in an interview. “So this is just fueling us to do better. It's by no stretch of the imagination a time for us to rest." The percentage of Black, Hispanic and English language learners, as well as pupils with disabilities, scoring proficiently remain disproportionately low despite increases. About 43 percent and 43.1 percent of Black and Hispanic students, respectively, demonstrated mastery of math, compared to 38.4 percent and 39.7 percent the previous year. Aviles-Ramos called the persistent discrepancies "unacceptable" but also touted the improvements. "They are huge increases and we beat pre-pandemic levels and so we know that what we're doing is working," she said. — Madina TouréCUOMO’S ZOHRAN LAW PUSH: Cuomo promoted “Zohran’s Law” today, his new plan to block wealthy people from living in rent-stabilized apartments. His proposal — while clearly political in origin — comes with a big practical question mark: Just how eager would the Democratic-dominated state Legislature be to work with Cuomo to pass such a measure if he were elected mayor? Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said the changes could be enacted if Albany agreed to repeal the Urstadt Law. “If that was successful, we could do that at the city level,” he said. The law, a measure enacted during Gov. Nelson Rockefeller’s tenure, gives Albany control over rent rules. Progressives have spent decades demanding Urstadt’s repeal, but their push has been met with long odds, with most Albany lawmakers over the past half century hesitant to give up the power to control housing rules, as well as donations from landlords who have historically been the state’s top campaign contributors. Even progressive legislators who’ve supported repeal in the past would likely be hesitant to move forward if it meant giving Cuomo more power. As governor, Cuomo floated repealing the law when he attempted to force real estate groups to the table during housing talks in 2011, according to testimony in former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos’ corruption trial. But he never publicly championed giving up that power while governor. “There are people running for governor right now and I don’t know where they stand on Urstadt, including Gov. Cuomo,” then-City Councilmember Jumaane Williams said in 2014. “I would like to know where he stands on repealing Urstadt and bringing Urstadt back to New York City.” — Bill Mahoney— MAMDANI’S PUBLIC SAFETY: Mamdani’s vision for a new Department of Community Safety shows promise, but public safety experts say transferring NYPD duties to the proposed agency could pose an administrative challenge. (Gothamist) — SHUTTERED SHELTERS: New York City real estate developers are looking to convert closed hotel shelters into residential apartments. (The Wall Street Journal) — ICE CAPITAL: New York City is leading the nation in immigration courthouse arrests by ICE authorities. (THE CITY) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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With help from Amira McKeePRIMARILY INTERESTING: Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s resounding primary victory exposed how a Democratic socialist’s ability to dominate across the city, and his 56-43 win over the more moderate Andrew Cuomo has sparked a wave of energy for lefty challenges. Pro-Cuomo lawmakers state Sen. Jessica Ramos and Assemblymember David Weprin have already drawn challengers, but a host of other low-profile electeds didn’t back Mamdani and saw their constituents vote overwhelmingly in his favor. Thanks to data published by Sam Hudis and Competitive Advantage Research, Playbook was able to identify 23 Democratic-held legislative districts in the city where Mamdani captured more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of ranked choice voting. Five of those districts are occupied by lawmakers who didn’t receive the backing of the Working Families Party in its initial round of endorsements last year and stayed away from the brand of leftist politics that launched Mamdani to the nomination — and they could see the Mamdani momentum topple them next June. These lawmakers didn’t endorse Mamdani in the Democratic primary — or they backed Cuomo. Four of them represent a cluster of neighborhoods near and along the border of Brooklyn and Queens and one comes from Northern Manhattan. Support from WFP and the DSA will be key for any left challenger hoping to unseat an incumbent, but the groups told Playbook it’s too early to talk about next year’s primaries. “The WFP is focused on winning in November, alongside Zohran Mamdani and our other endorsees all around New York,” party spokesperson Sydney Watnick said. “Our number one priority at this time is making sure that working families across the state know and feel that their elected officials are working together to make New York more affordable for everyone.” Grace Mausser, the co-chair of the city’s Democratic Socialist chapter, told Playbook in a statement, “Currently, our Electoral Working Group is looking at Zohran’s historic victory to see where we can grow our movement across the city. We’ll be hosting several forums this fall to hear from interested candidates, discuss their campaigns among our members, and ultimately our membership will vote on who we should endorse.” 1. Maritza Davila. District 53. Zohran vote share: 75% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2013 Nowhere else did Mamdani do better in the first round of voting than in Assemblymember Maritza Davila’s district, which includes what some political nerds have dubbed the “Commie Corridor.” Three quarters of all primary voters ranked him first, with Cuomo nabbing a mere 15 percent of the vote. Davila didn’t back anyone in the mayoral primary, but she supported lefty Maya Wiley in the 2021 race after rescinding an endorsement for former comptroller Scott Stringer following allegations of sexual harassment he denies. Her most recent primary challenge was in 2018, when she won with 82 percent of the vote and got the backing of the Working Families Party. "The voters of Bushwick and Williamsburg have always made their voices clear when it comes to the issues that matter most — the cost of rent, the price of putting food on the table, and being able to afford to get to work or school,” Davila said in a statement. “For years, these neighborhoods have been at the forefront of demanding action on rent stabilization, food costs, and affordable, reliable public transportation. That is why the community came out so strongly for Zohran Mamdani. His message resonated because it speaks to the daily struggles my constituents face and the fights I have taken on throughout my career from delivering summer SNAP dollars, to advocating for rent freezes to working to make the B60 bus free.” 2. Stefani Zinerman. District 56. Zohran vote share: 65% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2020 Assemblymember Stefani Zinerman successfully waded off a competitive primary challenge last year, but left-leaning Democrats are already eyeing her Bedford Stuyvesant and Crown Heights district. Zinerman — a close ally of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — became the latest front on the House leader’s war to fend off the DSA in his backyard. He got heavily involved in the race, and it ultimately paid off: Zinerman beat Eon Huntley by six points last year. Left-leaning City Council Member Chi Ossé, who resides in Zinerman’s district, has already made clear he wants someone to unseat her next year. “Her pro-landlord lobby, pro-homelessness, pro-displacement agenda has been allowed to ravage our neighborhoods for too long,” he wrote in a lengthy statement. “Her abhorrent policy positions invite a primary challenge.” Zinerman told Playbook in a statement that she commends Mamdani for his “impressive and inspiring grassroots campaign.” “In each election, I have earned the trust of voters through hard work, accessibility, and by advancing a legislative and community agenda rooted in equity, accountability, and action,” she said. “Speculating about my political future without acknowledging the depth of my service or the diversity of thought within progressive circles is a disservice to the constituents of the 56th Assembly District and your readers.” 3. Jenifer Rajkumar. District 38. Zohran vote share: 64% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2020 To political insiders, Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar needs no introduction. She was once famous for her remarkable stanning of our Mayor Eric Adams, but when his political capital nosedived she all but halted her cascade of appearances with the mayor. This year, she was the moderate challenger hoping to unseat lefty Jumaane Williams for public advocate, and she levied attacks (which some criticized as racist) that he was lazy and absent from his job. Rajkumar — who is also a strong supporter of Israel — lost to Williams by over 50 points but was able to keep her district, which includes parts of Ridgewood, Glendale and Woodhaven. "In 2020, Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar made history, defeating an 11-year incumbent by the largest margin of any challenger in New York State and tripling voter turnout to a record high,” her spokesperson Jacob Gross said in a statement. “Since then, she has brought that same unmatched energy and results to her district every day, backed by a broad, diverse coalition — and she’s just getting started." 4. Erik Dilan. District 54. Zohran vote share: 65% Primary endorsement: Cuomo First elected: 2014 Erik Dilan represents parts of Bushwick and Cypress Hills — and he has experience watching incumbents lose their seats to young, lefty challengers. His father, former state Sen. Marty Dilan, notably became the first sitting state legislator to lose a primary to a DSA member when he was ousted by Julia Salazar in 2018. The Assemblymember’s most recent primary challenge came from DSA member Samy Olivares in 2022; he squeaked by with 52 percent of the vote. He did not respond to a request for comment. 5. Al Taylor. District 71. Zohran vote share: 51% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2017 Harlem saw a swing toward Mamdani, and Assemblymember Al Taylor’s district was no exception. While he didn’t endorse in the primary, Mamdani announced Thursday that Taylor is supporting him in the general election. Earlier this year, the Harlem lawmaker stood with other Black electeds to support Eric Adams during the brief period when Gov. Kathy Hochul was considering removing him from office. "As a longtime colleague in the NYS Assembly, I’ve had the privilege of working alongside Zohran Mamdani on issues that matter most to our communities,” Taylor said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing our work together, including making New York more affordable and our city safer. I am proud to support our Democratic nominee for Mayor and am eager to campaign with him leading up to the November election, doing my part to help create a brighter future for our city." — Jason Beeferman and Bill MahoneySUBPOENA SITUATION: The U.S. attorney’s office in Albany has issued two subpoenas to New York Attorney General Letitia James stemming from a pair of politically charged civil cases against President Donald Trump and the National Rifle Association, according to a person familiar with the matter. The subpoenas are an escalation of the Trump administration’s scrutiny of James, who has positioned herself as a ferocious opponent of the president. The Department of Justice earlier this year opened a separate investigation into mortgage fraud allegations against James, which she has denied. The New York Times first reported the subpoenas. “Any weaponization of the justice system should disturb every American,” James spokesperson Geoff Burgan said in a statement. “We stand strongly behind our successful litigation against the Trump Organization and the National Rifle Association, and we will continue to stand up for New Yorkers’ rights.” James’ civil fraud case against Trump led to a Manhattan trial judge last year determining the president and other defendants — including his adult sons — inflated his net worth and the value of his real estate properties. The judge ordered Trump to pay a massive financial penalty that, with interest, has ballooned to more than half a billion dollars. Trump is appealing that verdict. James’ office last year successfully won a fraud case against the NRA, the pro-gun rights advocacy group, with a jury determining its longtime CEO misspent the organization’s funds on expensive perks. “Investigating the fraud case Attorney General James won against President Trump and his businesses has to be the most blatant and desperate example of this administration carrying out the president’s political retribution campaign,” James’ personal attorney Abbe Lowell said. — Nick Reisman, Josh Gerstein and Erica Orden ‘HAPPY 90TH’: New York lawmakers joined the AARP to celebrate Social Security’s 90th anniversary today. The milestone comes at a perilous moment for the state’s social safety net, as the Empire State’s social service agencies brace for deep federal funding cuts in the Republican-led “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Lawler attended one AARP event today in the Hudson Valley’s Tarrytown. Lawler is a high-priority target for Democrats seeking to retake the House majority next year and he’s faced protests in his district over cuts to social service programs in the Republican megabill. But Lawler was greeted diplomatically today and focused his brief remarks on efforts to bolster area Social Security offices and how the megabill benefits seniors. “I am proud of the fact that as part of the tax bill, we were able to pass a $6,000 senior deduction, which will help offset Social Security taxes that is vital for our seniors who are living on a fixed income,” he said. It was a far cry from the combative “Morning Joe” interview he had earlier in the day, where host Joe Scarborough pressed him on the law’s impact on Medicaid and district hospitals. Lawler accused hospital representatives of “parroting” talking points. Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres joined a related AARP event in the Bronx today, telling the small crowd that he is “a lifelong ally in the fight for social security.” “For me, there is no greater responsibility for the federal government and for America than to protect Social Security for the present and future generation of older Americans,” Torres said. Torres didn’t directly criticize the megabill or his Republican colleagues in his address, but said “the top one percent does not pay their fair share into Social Security” — a pointed nod to the partisan debate. — Amira McKee and Emily Ngo— QUEENS BOYS: Trump and Cuomo’s have crossed paths in their personal and professional lives several times before. (The New York Times) — ONE WAY STREET: Mamdani has voiced support for Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in her bid for governor of New Jersey, but the moderate is keeping her distance. (POLITICO Pro) — GET OUT: The new Brooklyn headquarters for Adams’ reelection campaign has an outstanding vacate order. (THE CITY) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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