Posted in

‘Great again?’ American decline today seems as irreversible as it ever was.

My pessimistic view of our nation’s future triggered me to write “Five reasons American decline appears irreversible” in January 2024. That rambunctious presidential election year now feels like ancient history. Twenty-one months later, new data and events have accelerated the decline, prompting this update. As before, we begin with the key reason.

1. Uncontrollable U.S. debt

According to the U.S. Debt Clock in mid-January 2024, the national debt stood at $34 trillion. That debt surpassed the $27.8 trillion gross domestic product, resulting in an irresponsible debt-to-GDP ratio of 122.30 percent. As of today, the national debt has increased to $37.8 trillion, while the GDP has grown to $30.3 trillion, for an alarming debt-to-GDP ratio of 124.84 percent.

In June, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke optimistically about “growing our way out of debt,” saying, “If the economy grows faster than the debt, we stabilize the country.” But “if” was a fantasy. Based on current trends, the Debt Clock predicts that by 2029, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio will be 141 percent.

Therefore, according to Bessent’s philosophy, our nation is destabilizing rapidly as interest payments on the national debt consume an ever-increasing share of the U.S. budget. Interest now exceeds $1 trillion, making it the government’s third-largest expense. Debt service has even surpassed the defense budget, a notable shift from January 2024, when interest on the national debt was the fourth-largest budget item.

2. Low student achievement

To offset the debt, robust economic growth must be driven by the next generation of educated, intelligent workers. However, America’s future is clouded by an epidemic of student underachievement.

In my January 2024 piece, I referenced the 2022 National Report Card, which found that only 29 percent of fourth-graders and 20 percent of eighth-graders were proficient in math. COVID was partially blamed, but scores were decreasing well before the pandemic closed schools and forced kids to learn online.

Last month, the 2024 National Report Card revealed 45 percent of high school seniors scored below “basic” competency in math — the lowest since 2005. Reading scores were worse, but math aptitude is especially troubling since it translates to high-tech innovation, which drives economic growth.

Sadly, our nation has fallen behind. In 2022, America’s 15-year-olds ranked 34th worldwide in math, science and reading, with a score of 465 on PISA (Program for International Student Assessment), a test conducted every three years. Singapore scored the highest with 575, followed by China at 552. Another PISA test is underway, with scores expected to be released next year.

In a technology-dominated world, low U.S. achievement necessitates a reliance on skilled foreign workers, now exacerbated by the Trump administration’s high-cost-to-work anti-immigrant policies. Furthermore, abysmal student scores perpetuate the next irreversible sign of decline.

3. Income and wealth inequality 

On Oct. 3, CNBC reported jaw-dropping wealth distribution figures for the second quarter. The top 1 percent of Americans held 29 percent of total household wealth, while the top 10 percent held 67 percent, and the bottom 90 percent claimed only 33 percent.

Those numbers are not surprising, given that in May, the Ludwig Institute for Shared Economic Prosperity released a troubling, detailed study examining wealth inequity. Metrics from their Minimal Quality of Life Index concluded that “the bottom 60 percent of nation’s earners hold just 22 percent of disposable income but need 39 percent for a minimal quality of life.”

America’s wealth imbalance helps explain why the next mayor of New York City is likely to be Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist who advocates for lower living costs and free services. Watch closely, because Mamdani’s ascendance reflects national decline, where the majority struggles and the wealthy minority thrives.

4. Loss of American identity and patriotism

Traditionally, “proud to be an American” was a strong common thread that, for decades, helped sustain our post-war superpower status. However, a confluence of negative factors has created a perfect storm leading to a decline in national pride among all Americans, but particularly the young. Why? For starters, it’s political cynicism, extreme polarization, lack of trust in leaders and traditional institutions, economic despair, pessimism about the future, widespread violence, and even fear of civil war.

Age-related decline in patriotism contributes to a general weakening of American identity, even threatening national security. Gallup’s annual survey of patriotism confirms this downward trend. Those who are “extremely” or “very proud” to be Americans peak at 83 percent among those born before 1946. The sharpest drop is seen in “Gen Z,” born between 1997 and 2012. Only 41 percent of them feel the same extreme pride as their elders. Narrowing that 42-point gap presents a significant leadership challenge linked to the loss of a unified national identity and the erosion of American exceptionalism.  

5. Widespread belief that our political system is broken

In my January 2024 piece, I described the political system through the lens of November’s presidential election — “broken enough to lock in two flawed, unpopular candidates well past their prime.” Since then, our broken system has hardened into two polarized camps with Civil War levels of hatred, where political violence is “sometimes justified” and even talked of by some as needed “to get the U.S. back on track.”  

The schisms below, described 21 months ago (well before President Biden’s reelection withdrawal, which did not alter any of the issues), continue to dominate today’s headlines:

“Team Trump is certain that only the former president can preserve democracy, save the nation from the southern border ‘invasion,’ and stop President Biden’s ‘corruption,’ along with the ‘weaponization’ of his Justice Department. Conversely, Democrats believe Biden will save democracy and the country from Trump, who will otherwise be an authoritarian ruler, shredding the Constitution.”

Currently, the five reasons for irreversible decline continue to worsen, while the “red” and “blue” camps remain deeply entrenched in an unavoidable conflict. A potentially devastating fight that our nation cannot withstand — led by a president whose unofficial motto is “Fight, Fight, Fight” — soon to be featured on a coin celebrating him and America’s 250th birthday.

As usual, the phrase “In God We Trust” will appear, taking on even greater meaning.

Myra Adams is a political and religious opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.