President Trump just took a partial step back from historic ignominy when it comes to the controversial issue of Ukraine.
This Monday he announced with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte a two-step transaction by which the U.S. will build and sell to NATO Patriot anti-missile systems and other weapons that NATO will then provide to Ukraine for its defense against Russia’s expanding invasion. Had Trump rejected NATO’s compromise deal, avoiding further U.S. costs to defend Ukraine, and reverted to his openly pro-Putin posture, he would have forever tarnished his legacy — the same way Joe Biden’s Afghanistan debacle destroyed his already dubious foreign policy reputation.
The Trump administration last week said that the U.S. would “pause” military weapons shipments for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, the second such interruption of aid that has taken place without the president’s explicit consent. Now at least temporarily reversed, this action likely would have fatally weakened Ukraine’s ability to fend off Russia’s assault and guaranteed the continuation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wanton cruelty. Trump called Russia’s recent bombing onslaught on civilians “unnecessary” and untimely, given his own plans for Ukraine, which remain undefined except that he wants the war ended on almost any terms.
With the Biden-to-Trump transition, Ukraine and the world saw U.S. policy shift away from a contradictory approach of strong rhetorical support coupled with erratic military aid and constrained intelligence sharing. Biden’s forever-stalemate strategy took a dramatic turn for the worse under Trump, thanks to his outright admiration for “genius” Putin’s aggressive agenda.
Until now, Trump has acquiesced to Putin’s mockery of his “peace process,” and brazenly done what no other president has even considered in 250 years of U.S. history: He has openly sided with one of America’s leading enemies in its victimization of a democratic friend. Even now, questions remain as to whether Ukraine will receive as many weapons as it needs and at the delivery rate needed.
The new 50-day delay in threatened primary and secondary sanctions casts doubt on whether Trump’s heart is really into getting tough with Putin, whom he has belatedly accused of sounding “nice” but throwing a lot of “bulls—.” The reprieve, as more Ukrainians die and cities are destroyed, allows Putin yet more time to deliver a death blow to Ukraine. The world may be witnessing a cynical Trump-Putin kabuki dance intended to be fatal for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Communist China and North Korea have been learning the true meaning of Trump’s slogans about reviving American greatness. The laudable and long-overdue strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons program did not erase what threatens to become, under Trump, the hollowing-out of Reagan’s policy of resisting Russian expansionism.
Counterintuitively, it is perfectly plausible for Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un to conclude that Trump’s Iran operation makes him far less, not more, likely to consider using U.S. force to defend Taiwan, the Philippines or South Korea. Trump’s reasoning might well be that the Iran strike has already proved his credentials as a commander in chief willing to use U.S. power in the national interest.
Although the premise is sound, the perseverance of America’s adversaries and the contrary message of weakness conveyed by his seeming Ukraine surrender up to now send a different message. Given his decidedly mixed record, Trump cannot afford to stand by if Beijing and Pyongyang choose to test his national security staying power.
Trump has not yet endorsed the overthrow of Iran’s terrorist regime. In fact, Trump has said he does “not favor regime change in Iran” because of the “chaos” it would cause. But he has twice cut off at the knees Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, while openly supporting Putin. In that strategic context, Xi and Kim will surely be tempted to advance their own aggressive regional plans.
The interrelationship of the remaining Russia-China-North Korea entente manifests itself in various ways. Kim sent tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers to help push back Ukraine’s surprise advance into Russia’s Kursk region. This was undoubtedly done with Beijing’s explicit encouragement, reminiscent of China’s massive infusion of “volunteers” into South Korea to thwart the allied counteroffensive during the Korean War.
North Korean forces, while pushing the Ukrainians back from Kursk and gaining much-needed battlefield experience, suffered major losses and demonstrated both their strategic and tactical shortcomings — as well as the willingness of totalitarian rulers to use human lives as cannon fodder.
Having entered into a “no limits” strategic partnership with Putin just before his 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Xi arrogantly announced earlier this month that China “can’t accept” Russia’s defeat. The statement, delivered by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, coincided ominously with Trump’s announced second cut-off of support for Ukraine. Considering this latest unequivocal commitment to the success of Russia, Xi may well be signaling an intention to send Chinese forces to replenish Russia’s depleted army.
It was also striking that Beijing chose to make the outcome in Ukraine a matter of Chinese national interest. It will undoubtedly expect the same level of unlimited Russian support if it decides to move in the South China Sea.
To discourage that kind of rash action, Trump needs to send a clear, Reaganesque message of deterrence to Putin and Xi that the U.S. will do whatever is necessary to protect the security of Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines and America’s other friends, allies and security partners.
It’s worth noting the commitments of China and North Korea to Russia’ warmongering in Ukraine have overtones of the escalating domino effect that triggered World War I, with one major difference: Trump has made clear that, up to now at least, this U.S. president was on the side of the aligned aggressors.
If Trump adheres to that wrong-headed posture, history will not treat him kindly, and the free world will pay a grievous price. Ukraine is already paying it now.
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies, a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute and member of the advisory board of The Vandenberg Coalition.
