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How the GOP Beat Democrats to a Child Care Win

by The editor•9 July 2025•Posted inReal Clear Politics

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The Guardian

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Politico

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Mamdani returns, swipes away Defund the Police past
With help from Amira McKee‘OUT OF STEP:’ Zohran Mamdani distanced himself from “defund the police” posts he made in 2020, saying today they were made “amidst a frustration that many New Yorkers held at the murder of George Floyd.” He said multiple times that the posts were “clearly out of step” with his current view of policing and his campaign platform. The Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City was speaking at a press conference held hours after he returned from an 11-day vacation to Uganda. Mamdani has faced backlash over his past comments critical of the NYPD following the city’s deadliest mass shooting in 25 years, where four people, including an off-duty police officer, were killed in Midtown Manhattan. “I am not defunding the police; I am not running to defund the police,” Mamdani told reporters today. “Over the course of this race, I’ve been very clear about my view of public safety and the critical role that the police have in creating that public safety.” There was little the NYPD could have done to stop the shooter, who drove in from out of state and was in public only briefly before he began pulling the trigger. Still, the tragedy has resulted in an outpouring of support for the department and its members, and has raised questions about how Mamdani would lead the force as mayor, POLITICO reports. Mamdani is returning to a city where polling shows him as the clear favorite, and he’ll try to maintain that lead through the tumult of a crowded general election in an unpredictable city. His opponents have homed in on his relatively limited political and management experience, and the past few days have served as a test of how the democratic socialist frontrunner would respond to a crisis — and the pressure that entails. During the news conference, Mamdani stood with the Bangladeshi American Police Association, of which slain NYPD officer Didarul Islam was a member, and building service workers union 32BJ, which represented Aland Etienne, an office security guard who died in the attack. Like other Democrats, Mamdani placed blame for the shooting on easy access to firearms. “No matter how strong our gun laws are in this state, they are only as strong as the weakest laws in our nation,” he said. “I echo the call from Governor Hochul for a nationwide ban on assault rifles.” Mamdani also slammed his opponent Andrew Cuomo for criticizing his prior calls to defund the police in the aftermath of the shooting, saying it was a way for Cuomo to “score such cynical political points.” “We want to honor the New Yorkers who have been taken from us far too soon,” Mamdani said. “And yet, here we have a former governor calling every reporter he can find to speak about tweets. What kind of leadership is that?” Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said it was fair game. “I liken that to every time there is a mass shooting, Republicans say it’s not the time to talk gun control,” he said in a statement. “This is very much the time to talk about what our candidates for mayor said then vs. now.” — Jeff Coltin & Jason BeefermanA LONG FIGHT AHEAD FOR REDISTRICTING AMENDMENT: On the same morning that Texas Republicans unveiled a potential gerrymander to create five new Republican-friendly congressional seats, New York Democrats officially introduced a constitutional amendment that would let them make mid-decade changes to the Empire State’s maps. But don’t expect any imminent or drastic action in New York, POLITICO Pro reported today. Any amendment couldn’t be approved any earlier than November 2027. That means any new lines wouldn’t take effect until 2028, even if they can avoid legal hiccups and court-ordered stays that spring. And the new maps would still need to adhere to existing prohibitions on gerrymandering — so don’t expect districts combining Staten Island with Plattsburgh, as you might see in other states. The amendment is sure to be at the center of an extremely expensive battle at the ballot box if it moves forward. A different proposal to change the redistricting process was defeated as a referendum in 2021 — a year with mayoral races that drove out more Democrats than can be expected in 2027. “It’s the perfect type of legislation to beat at the ballot box,” state Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar said. “Frankly, it’s likely to turn out the vote and help us elect other officials.” Democrats are hopeful they’ll be better prepared this time around, though. “I would hope for a campaign from the national party, from the state party, from other interested parties,” Senate Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris said. “This is something with national implications, so I would hope there’d be a huge effort.” — Bill Mahoney MAP FIGHT: Despite the severely limited menu of options for New York Democrats to redraw House lines before the 2026 midterm elections, Hochul today signaled she’s in ongoing talks over the issue. In a statement to Playbook, Hochul blasted Texas GOP lawmakers for revising their House lines — a change that will add five additional seats Trump carried by double digits. “We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future,” she said. “I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.” Hochul has spoken with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffires about redistricting in New York, as red states — including Texas and Ohio — move forward with changing their maps this year. Two state lawmakers have proposed a constitutional amendment that would allow New York to redistrict mid-decade, but such a change would not be in place soon enough to impact the high-stakes House races next year. — Nick Reisman CHILD HEALTH CARE ROLLBACK: A new federal policy slated to take effect in 2027 will jeopardize health insurance coverage for more than 750,000 children in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul said today. The Democratic governor bashed President Donald Trump’s administration in a statement, calling the rollback of programs that provide continuous Medicaid coverage a “misguided policy” that “threatens the progress we’ve made in keeping young children connected to care,” POLITICO Pro’s Katelyn Cordero reports. The federal government last year approved New York’s proposal for continuous Medicaid and Child Health Plus coverage for enrollees up to the age of 6. The state is now required to roll back that policy by 2027. New York’s continuous coverage policy was implemented this year under a federal waiver. It requires continued access to health care for children regardless of changes to family income. The waiver will not be revoked, but the Hochul administration received a letter from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services indicating that it will not be renewed in 2027. “We will use every tool at our disposal to protect access to Medicaid and Child Health Plus for the more than 750,000 young children across New York State who depend on it for a healthy start in life,” Hochul said in her statement. — Katelyn Cordero QUIT POLITICKIN’: Senate Republicans are decrying one of Hochul’s commissioners for using government resources to promote attacks against Republicans in D.C. “We understand Governor Hochul is gearing up for a tough re-election, but the use of state resources to amplify partisan messaging must cease immediately,” the GOP state lawmakers wrote in a letter to Barbara Guinn, commissioner of the Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance. Guinn, who was appointed by Hochul to lead the office in 2023, penned an op-ed with Democratic state Sen. Roxanne Persaud criticizing the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Her agency — which is tasked with overseeing food, heat and cash assistance programs — then shared the opinion piece on its government website. “If you are struggling to put enough food on the table and also struggling to find gainful employment, Republicans in Washington, including seven representing New York State, say you are on your own,” Guinn wrote in the piece, adding that the federal bill “cruelly slashes SNAP in ways that were previously unthinkable.” In a separate letter sent to state lawmakers under government letterhead, she also decried how “actions by the federal GOP will likely lead to limited benefit access,” she wrote. While Hochul freely uses her taxpayer-funded communications team to slam Republicans in Congress and the White House, many unelected commissioners in Albany steer clear of partisan attacks. Senate Republicans are arguing that Guinn crossed a line: “These talking points are best left to the Democratic National Committee, not parroted by a state agency that performs vital public service,” they wrote in their letter. Guinn’s office did not respond to a request for comment. — Jason Beeferman— ALL AGAINST MAMDANI: Five separate groups have emerged, all planning to raise millions of dollars to defeat Mamdani. (The New York Times) — OLD VS. NEW: 26-year-old Liam Elkind is launching a primary challenge to 78-year-old Rep. Jerry Nadler, saying he no longer has the energy nor mindset for the job. (CNN) — BRONX CASINO BID IS ALIVE: The mayor vetoed a measure from the City Council that some thought permanently ended the chances of a Bronx casino. (POLITICO Pro) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Zohran dominates in new poll
With help from Amira McKeeCUOMO CONUNDRUM: Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani looks to be cruising toward victory, capturing 50 percent of the vote in a new general election poll of the mayor’s race paid for by his allies. In the five-way contest, Andrew Cuomo trailed him with 22 percent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa came in third at 13 percent and Mayor Eric Adams captured 7 percent of the vote among likely voters. Attorney Jim Walden received 1 percent. “Our independent poll — the first in this cycle to be offered in four languages and to drill down into national origin and religious denomination — makes one thing clear: Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all on the same Zohran Mamdani bus, and it’s headed in the direction of the Democratic Party’s future,” said Amit Singh Bagga, the principal of Public Progress Solutions and a veteran of federal, city, and state government. Bagga’s firm designed and analyzed the poll along with Adam Carlson’s Zenith Research. It was funded through private donations to Bagga, who advised Mamdani’s campaign during the primary on a variety of city government issues, and was fielded by Verasight. It quizzed 1,453 registered voters — 1,021 of whom were “likely” voters — and was conducted between July 16 and 24, concluding four days before a gunman walked into a Midtown Manhattan office building on Monday and killed four people, including one NYPD officer. Mamdani was celebrating his wedding in Uganda at the time. He’s scheduled to be back in the city Wednesday morning. According to the poll, even if the former governor could achieve his unlikely goal of neutralizing the rest of the field to face Mamdani one-on-one, the democratic socialist assemblymember is still up 52-40 in a head-to-head matchup with likely voters. But Mamdani’s head-to-head lead shrinks to just 3 points with registered voters. And it’d be worse for Adams — Mamdani clocks him 59-32 with likely voters and 55-32 with registered voters. Three months out from the Nov. 4 election, Mamdani is in a commanding position. Just 32 percent of likely voters say they would not consider voting for him, while Cuomo is at 60 percent and Adams at 68 percent. “With a majority of voters saying they wouldn't even consider voting for Cuomo, Adams' net favorability being lower than Trump's, and Sliwa mired in the low teens, it's hard to see how anyone can put a serious scare into Mamdani in a split field,” Carlson said in a statement. The survey is the first significant public poll after the ex-governor announced he’d mount a campaign after losing the primary. Respondents were surveyed via a hybrid online panel, the firms said. The poll had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error. Cuomo took issue with the poll’s model assumption that Mamdani’s campaign would boost turnout among younger and college-educated voters as it did in the primary. “The only thing that I think is material for accuracy is what the poll says about the registered voters,” Cuomo told Playbook. “As we learned in the primary, when you’re assuming turnout levels, there are many variables. In the primary, they underestimated the number of young people. You have to make another set of assumptions on the general. Some people will assume you’re going to see a young voter surge. Some people believe you’re going to see an anti-socialist surge. Some people think you’re going to see a pro-Israel surge. So who knows?” Mamdani still holds a 16-point lead over Cuomo among registered voters, according to the poll. Mamdani gets 42 percent in a five-way race, followed by Cuomo at 26, Sliwa at 12, Adams at 7 and Walden at 1. — Jeff Coltin & Jason BeefermanHEASTIE WILL VOTE DEMOCRAT (WE ASSUME): Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie implied he is likely to vote for Mamdani — but continues to avoid explicitly saying the democratic socialist will earn a spot on his ballot. “Do we ask people who they vote for?” Heastie quipped when a reporter asked him this afternoon who he would vote for in the general election. “Listen, I'm a Democrat, and I support Democrats. I've never voted for someone that’s not a Democrat.” The speaker was in Schenectady today for a visit to a local musical theater in need of state investment. When asked if his record of voting strictly along the Democratic line could change for the upcoming mayoral election, Heastie chuckled. After a brief silence, his press aide cut in to solicit other questions from reporters. The speaker did say he is in frequent contact with the mayoral nominee. “Zohran and I have had loads of communications,” Heastie said. “What people have to understand is that when I'm the speaker of [a] body, I have to communicate concerns of the body, and Zohran and I have communicated what I think he needs to do to get me there.” — Jason Beeferman GUN CONTROL PLEAS: New York Democrats pleaded for Congress to approve tighter gun control laws in the wake of a Midtown shooting that left six people dead — including an NYPD officer. There’s little chance any measures will pass given Republicans holding all levers of power in Washington. Yet Gov. Kathy Hochul and Heastie on Tuesday urged national action — a tacit acknowledgement that the state’s comparatively strict gun laws can’t stop someone obtaining a weapon in another state. The alleged shooter reportedly traveled to New York from Nevada. “We need a national awakening here. People need to be talking about this once again and it shouldn't just happen in the wake of a tragedy like this. It should be an ongoing conversation where we force the Republicans to understand lives could be saved if we only do what's smart and common sense,” Hochul told CNN. The governor pushed through a package of gun law changes after the U.S. Supreme Court determined New York’s concealed carry measure was unconstitutional. In the wake of a Buffalo mass shooting in 2022, Hochul won approval of tighter restrictions on gun ownership, including raising the age to buy a firearm from 18 to 21. Heastie echoed Hochul’s sentiment with reporters in Schenectady. “When is this country going to wake up on allowing citizens to have these military-style weapons?” he said. “No other industrial nation in this world allows the citizens to do it.” — Nick Reisman AMEND TO THAT: Heastie is ready to change New York’s redistricting laws as red states move this year to redraw their House lines. “At this point we should look to try to see what we can do to counteract Republican actions,” Heastie told reporters today. There are very few options for New York Democrats to impact next year’s election, though, even as Hochul last week signaled she is open to making changes to the state’s House lines. One potential long-term response is a constitutional amendment — a multi-year effort that ends with a voter referendum — that would allow New York to redistrict in the middle of the decade if another state undertakes the process. Heastie said he is open to passing the measure, which was introduced by state Sen. Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, POLITICO first reported on Monday. “It doesn’t have to be done now; it can be done in the following year,” he added. — Nick ReismanDELGADO WANTS SPECIAL SESSION: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, a gubernatorial primary candidate, is calling for the state Legislature to hold a special session to protect against incoming federal cuts — but Heastie indicated an early return to Albany for lawmakers is unlikely. Delgado is slated to appear with Assemblymembers George Alvarez, Amanda Septimo, Phara Souffrant Forrest and Claire Valdez on Thursday in Manhattan to make a public plea for a special session. It’s a sign of support from the group of lefty lawmakers even as the vast majority of Democratic lawmakers are leery of backing the lieutenant governor over Hochul. The event is organized by Citizen Action, VOCAL-NY, Make the Road and other left-leaning advocacy groups. Still, Heastie indicated this afternoon a special session is unlikely. “We haven't had any discussions about that,” he said. While it’s early, Heastie said his “biggest priority” for the upcoming legislative session will be to “limit as best we can the damage that Republicans have done to us that they keep trying to sugarcoat.” — Jason Beeferman— SINCE 2000: The mass shooting in a Midtown building Monday night was New York’s deadliest shooting in 25 years. (New York Times) — CONTESTED BALLOTS: The New York City Board of Elections is set to certify the results of a GOP primary for a Brooklyn City Council seat Tuesday amid allegations of voter fraud. (New York Daily News) — ‘YOU AND YOUR EGO’: Cuomo slammed Adams as a “spoiler” driven by his own ego while speaking with reporters at the Columbian Day Parade. (New York Post) — MTA OUTAGE: A slew of subway lines were delayed and suspended today as a power outage wreaked havoc on the system. (Gothamist) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here. NOTE: This article has been updated to accurately reflect the elected officials planning to attend Thursday’s rally with Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. POLITICO was informed following publication that Sen. Kristen Gonzalez did not plan to attend. In addition, an earlier version of this newsletter misstated the subject of Bagga's advising for Mamdani. He advised on city government issues.

NPR

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Republicans in Texas release a proposal for a new congressional map
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Five Thirty Eight

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