President Trump abruptly left the G-7 meeting in Alberta, Canada last night. The stated reason was to deal with the Israel-Iran conflict, although it could also have just been to create drama.
Israel has been remarkably successful in its initial forays in the war against Iran, hitting nuclear facilities and ballistic missile sites, and conducting targeted assassinations of key Iranian military and scientific personnel. Israel has created an unopposed air corridor around Tehran and yesterday hit Iranian state television in the middle of broadcast.
There has been no evident Iranian air defense since the fighting started, suggesting that Israel’s October 2024 strikes were more successful than believed at the time. And, similar to the recent drone attack by Ukraine from inside Russia, Israel launched a drone strike against key Iranian outposts and defenses from within the country on June 12.
Iranian retaliatory missile strikes have been somewhat anemic — generally 30 to 50 ballistic missiles simultaneously, but more and more are getting through Israeli air defenses each time. Yesterday, more than 20 got through to central Israel. To date, there have been at least 24 civilian deaths, hundreds of civilian casualties and 15,000 homes damaged — something Israelis are not used to.
Israel claims to have taken out one-third of Iran’s missile launchers. However, if the Iranians are able to launch a salvo of more than 100 missiles, it will overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome and has the potential to create a mass-casualty event that would rapidly escalate the conflict.
Israel has inflicted serious damage to Iran and the projection of Iranian power across the region. The “Axis of Resistance” has been decimated — not even the Houthis have taken action in support of Iran.
Unfortunately, as we have seen in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not known for his endgame. Israeli talk about the conflict lasting another few weeks is fraught with danger.
Before there is a mass-casualty event, an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabian oilfields or an attack on U.S. interests, Trump should compel Netanyahu to declare victory by providing a very short timeline for Iran to agree to cease all uranium enrichment and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to dismantle or destroy Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan.
That result would be welcomed by Europe, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Egypt.
As an “enticement” for Iranian cooperation, the U.S. should assure the Iranians that if they do not agree to dismantle their nuclear program, America will bomb the Fordo enrichment site with its 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrator, colloquially known as “MOAB” or “Mother of All Bombs.” Fordo is Iran’s most protected nuclear site, 20 stories below ground and set in a mountainous region northwest of the holy city of Qom. It is the one nuclear site that has not been targeted by Israel.
Barring Iranian agreement to dismantle its entire nuclear program, the next step would be to seek regime change.
Now is the time for Trump to act.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East. From 1991 to 2005, he was an adjunct professor of Israeli law at Georgetown University Law Center. From 2015 to 2020, he was general counsel to a graduate school focused on national security in Washington.