Not too long ago, many pundits and politicians thought the Baltic Sea could become what some have colloquially dubbed “NATO Lake.”
The concept: a body of water practically dominated by Western shipping, with enforcement belonging almost exclusively to NATO states and a minimal-at-best Russian presence.
The war in Ukraine actually gave momentum to the idea after Sweden and Finland joined the western alliance, putting almost all of the Baltic Sea’s regional coastline under NATO control.
At least in theory.
“I absolutely hate the term ‘NATO Lake,’” Commodore Ivo Värk, commander of the Estonian Navy, said with an incredulous grin.
Speaking to NewsNation aboard the ENS Ugandi, a Sandown-class minehunter, he made clear he believes Sweden and Finland have been advantageous additions to NATO.
But that doesn’t change the fact that the nearby Russian exclave of Kaliningrad is home to Russia’s Baltic Fleet and Russia’s second largest city of Saint Petersburg has direct passageway to the Atlantic through the waterway.
Russia is not downsizing its presence in the Baltic region. In fact, NATO and Russia cross paths every day in what is one of the most strategic bodies of water in the world.
“It’s never going to be easy. It’s always going to be a contested environment where you have to fight your way in and out,” Värk explained, referring to the density of naval and commercial traffic.
“And how contested is it?” I asked earnestly.
“Very.”
The Russian Navy routinely carries out drills in the Baltic, flexing its muscles in full view of a collection of Western states. Those come and go, and seldom generating alarm. “Business as usual,” as Värk described.
What is putting the alliance on edge, however, is the recent string of incursions into Baltic airspace.
On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 jets spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace, according to that nation’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. NATO leaders have called for a unified and tough response.
Estonia’s Defense Minister even said “if we were truly forced to use the last resort, which is the use of force, then there was a readiness for that as well.”
“It could be big trouble,” President Trump told reporters, acknowledging he was not happy about the incident.
An emergency session of the UN Security Council was convened Monday, in which newly sworn in U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz, vowed “the United States and our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory” while adding “Russia must urgently stop such dangerous behavior.”
That’s but one episode. On Sunday, Germany’s delegation to NATO said they intercepted a Russian reconnaissance plane over the Baltic. Both incidents came just days after the alliance fired its first shots since the war in Ukraine broke out to down drones over Poland.
On the ground, countries like Estonia aren’t taking chances. Construction of anti-tank trenches along its southeastern border with Russia were publicized over the summer.
On the sea itself, the Russian Navy is as active as ever. But it’s also ships flying flags of countries like Panama, Liberia, and other so-called “flags of convenience” that are sparking heated interest in the region.
Those ships by-and-large make up Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” of tankers that are all over the Baltic carrying oil and gas. With complex ownerships and opaque corporate structures, they’re used to evading sanctions instituted by the West.
“Because the revenue from the natural resources seems to be so important to Russia, I would consider the Shadow Fleet to be a national interest to Russia,” Värk said. “And the national interest will be protected with a military means as well.”
Värk says old, run-down tankers can be seen accompanied by Russian Naval escorts, or even aircraft above. Sometimes they leave the Baltic under one flag, then return some time later bearing another nation’s colors. The practice is called “flag-hopping.”
As we saw firsthand, it’s up to NATO allies, especially but not solely the Estonian Navy, to be on the frontlines of the Baltic to monitor the Shadow Fleet’s traffic. Our NewsNation team saw these operations firsthand while embedding with the sailors aboard the ENS Ugandi as the minehunter set off on one of its NATO patrols.
“Minehunter” is not a flippantly-given name, as that is one of the ship’s main priorities. The Baltic Sea is littered with live, unexploded mines largely dating back to the second World War (another story for another day).
In this case, the ENS Ugandi’s assignment was to monitor and inspect the tankers traversing the Baltic Sea.
“We are the additional eyes for the Navy to identify or contact or to make sure the maritime traffic is safe in our area of responsibility,” said Senior Lieutenant Greete Mänd, the ENS Ugandi’s Commanding Officer.
Sure enough, the eyes of NATO caught sight of an orange tanker off the horizon shortly after our departure. Flagged under the Marshall Islands, it was worth a closer look. After quickly tracking down the name and pertinent details of the ship, the information appeared to check out as far as they could tell.
That’s just one ship in the Baltic. Considering it’s common for dozens to be spotted at a time while on a patrol, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence and shipbroker Gibson estimating the Shadow Fleet is between 1,200 and 1,600 strong, the job is never-ending.
The business is a big one for Russia. Oil and Gas makes up an average of 20 percent of the nation’s GDP year to year, and 30 to 50 percent of Russia’s federal budget revenues, according to NewsNation’s research department.
It’s part of the reason President Trump has upped his criticism of some European countries in recent weeks, contending their varied reliance on Russian oil has played a role in prolonging the war in Ukraine.
Friday, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers introduced the “Sanctioning Harbors and Dodgers of Western Sanctions,” or SHADOW Fleets Act in hopes of targeting Russians sanction-evading operations. President Trump has publicly floated the idea of pressuring Russia to the negotiating table with steeper penalties.
Värk says from what he’s seen, the sanctions are having an impact. But they only work if there are ships on the water to enforce them.
“There’s no point in putting up the sanctions without intention or will to enforce the sanctions. The sanctions will not work if you don’t enforce them.”
Meanwhile, the White House has confirmed to NewsNation its goal to phase out some funding for some Eastern European countries, including those on the Baltic Sea.
“On day one of his second term, President Trump signed an Executive Order to reevaluate and realign United States foreign aid. This action has been coordinated with European countries in line with the Executive Order and the President’s longstanding emphasis on ensuring Europe takes more responsibility for its own defense,” the White House official said.
Värk declined to weigh in on the politics of where American tax dollars go, but does believe the answer to Russia’s maneuvers is more manpower on the water, not less.
“Presence serves for more deterrence, and that includes the U.S. Military presence in Estonia,” Värk said. “The ships, the troops. It is a deterrence. It would be a shame to see the us troops leave Estonia.”
Robert Sherman is a White House reporter for NewsNation.
All photos courtesy of Will Budkins at NewsNation.
