(NEXSTAR) – The Trump administration is reportedly seeking ways to raise the American birth rate, considering incentives ranging from a $5,000 cash “baby bonus” to a “National Medal of Motherhood” awarded to women with more than six children.
Would a trophy or tax break be enough to convince Americans to have more children? Countries around the world with plummeting birth rates have test driven all sorts of strategies to promote procreating, and it turns out it’s a tough task.
People and policymakers may want to boost the birth rate for a variety of reasons, from cultural to economic. The primary economic concern is that if a country’s birth rate drops too low, and there isn’t enough immigration to bring in younger workers, the country will be left with an aging population that needs support but a smaller tax base of workers to support them.
What is the U.S. birth rate and how does it compare to other countries?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports the U.S. birth rate dropped to 1.6 children per woman in 2023 – a new historic low.
To be at replacement levels, the birth rate would have to be a bit higher at 2.1. That’s generally accepted as the level at which each generation ensures it replaces itself.
While the U.S. birth rate is lower than it has ever been before, it’s still higher than our North American neighbors to the north and dozens of other countries around the world. Canada’s fertility rate is at 1.3, according to World Bank Data. Any countries around Europe and Asia have rates that are even lower, including Italy (1.2), Spain (1.1), Japan (1.2) and Korea (0.7). Australia and New Zealand also have fertility rates lower than the United States’.
Has anything worked to boost fertility in other countries?
The U.S. is far from the first country to show concern over a shrinking population.
Singapore, which has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, has tried doling out sizable cash incentives. Couples get the equivalent of about $8,500 for their first and second children, CNBC reports, and $10,000 for their third child and beyond. Those bonuses don’t go very far, however, with Singapore’s ultra-high cost of living.
The cost of raising a child isn’t cheap here either. LendingTree recently estimated it costs about $29,000 a year.
“The one-time bonuses are definitely not very effective, and that’s pretty widely shown,” Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of UNC’s Carolina Population Center, told PBS.
For what it’s worth, Singapore has also tried some less conventional routes. They once got desperate enough to make a PSA (complete with a song) encouraging couples to do their “civic duty” by getting busy in the bedroom and “letting their patriotism explode.”
In Japan, where the fertility rate is dropping faster than projected, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has described the situation as “a silent emergency.” The government has promised to promote more flexible working environments and other measures that would help married couples to balance work and parenting, especially in rural areas where family values tend to be more conservative and harder on women.
The younger generation isn’t just reluctant to have kids, but also to get married due to bleak job prospects, a high cost of living and a gender-biased corporate culture that adds extra burdens for women and working mothers, experts say.
While cash incentives and catchy songs haven’t proven very effective at convincing people around the world to have children, one thing experts believe might work is cheap or free childcare.
In a report last year, the U.S. Department of Labor described childcare as “an almost prohibitive expense.” Even in affordable states, child care costs thousands of dollars a year. In pricier coastal communities, the median cost of infant care tops $30,000 a year.
Though it’s hard to predict if it would be a silver bullet, easing the child care cost burden – or completely eliminating it – is “probably the thing that is most likely to have the impact on birth rates,” Guzzo said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.