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Logic Behind Trump’s Deportations Doesn’t Add Up

by The editor•17 July 2025•Posted inReal Clear Politics

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Politico

The 5 most vulnerable assemblymembers
With help from Amira McKeePRIMARILY INTERESTING: Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s resounding primary victory exposed how a Democratic socialist’s ability to dominate across the city, and his 56-43 win over the more moderate Andrew Cuomo has sparked a wave of energy for lefty challenges. Pro-Cuomo lawmakers state Sen. Jessica Ramos and Assemblymember David Weprin have already drawn challengers, but a host of other low-profile electeds didn’t back Mamdani and saw their constituents vote overwhelmingly in his favor. Thanks to data published by Sam Hudis and Competitive Advantage Research, Playbook was able to identify 23 Democratic-held legislative districts in the city where Mamdani captured more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of ranked choice voting. Five of those districts are occupied by lawmakers who didn’t receive the backing of the Working Families Party in its initial round of endorsements last year and stayed away from the brand of leftist politics that launched Mamdani to the nomination — and they could see the Mamdani momentum topple them next June. These lawmakers didn’t endorse Mamdani in the Democratic primary — or they backed Cuomo. Four of them represent a cluster of neighborhoods near and along the border of Brooklyn and Queens and one comes from Northern Manhattan. Support from WFP and the DSA will be key for any left challenger hoping to unseat an incumbent, but the groups told Playbook it’s too early to talk about next year’s primaries. “The WFP is focused on winning in November, alongside Zohran Mamdani and our other endorsees all around New York,” party spokesperson Sydney Watnick said. “Our number one priority at this time is making sure that working families across the state know and feel that their elected officials are working together to make New York more affordable for everyone.” Grace Mausser, the co-chair of the city’s Democratic Socialist chapter, told Playbook in a statement, “Currently, our Electoral Working Group is looking at Zohran’s historic victory to see where we can grow our movement across the city. We’ll be hosting several forums this fall to hear from interested candidates, discuss their campaigns among our members, and ultimately our membership will vote on who we should endorse.” 1. Maritza Davila. District 53. Zohran vote share: 75% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2013 Nowhere else did Mamdani do better in the first round of voting than in Assemblymember Maritza Davila’s district, which includes what some political nerds have dubbed the “Commie Corridor.” Three quarters of all primary voters ranked him first, with Cuomo nabbing a mere 15 percent of the vote. Davila didn’t back anyone in the mayoral primary, but she supported lefty Maya Wiley in the 2021 race after rescinding an endorsement for former comptroller Scott Stringer following allegations of sexual harassment he denies. Her most recent primary challenge was in 2018, when she won with 82 percent of the vote and got the backing of the Working Families Party. "The voters of Bushwick and Williamsburg have always made their voices clear when it comes to the issues that matter most — the cost of rent, the price of putting food on the table, and being able to afford to get to work or school,” Davila said in a statement. “For years, these neighborhoods have been at the forefront of demanding action on rent stabilization, food costs, and affordable, reliable public transportation. That is why the community came out so strongly for Zohran Mamdani. His message resonated because it speaks to the daily struggles my constituents face and the fights I have taken on throughout my career from delivering summer SNAP dollars, to advocating for rent freezes to working to make the B60 bus free.” 2. Stefani Zinerman. District 56. Zohran vote share: 65% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2020 Assemblymember Stefani Zinerman successfully waded off a competitive primary challenge last year, but left-leaning Democrats are already eyeing her Bedford Stuyvesant and Crown Heights district. Zinerman — a close ally of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — became the latest front on the House leader’s war to fend off the DSA in his backyard. He got heavily involved in the race, and it ultimately paid off: Zinerman beat Eon Huntley by six points last year. Left-leaning City Council Member Chi Ossé, who resides in Zinerman’s district, has already made clear he wants someone to unseat her next year. “Her pro-landlord lobby, pro-homelessness, pro-displacement agenda has been allowed to ravage our neighborhoods for too long,” he wrote in a lengthy statement. “Her abhorrent policy positions invite a primary challenge.” Zinerman told Playbook in a statement that she commends Mamdani for his “impressive and inspiring grassroots campaign.” “In each election, I have earned the trust of voters through hard work, accessibility, and by advancing a legislative and community agenda rooted in equity, accountability, and action,” she said. “Speculating about my political future without acknowledging the depth of my service or the diversity of thought within progressive circles is a disservice to the constituents of the 56th Assembly District and your readers.” 3. Jenifer Rajkumar. District 38. Zohran vote share: 64% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2020 To political insiders, Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar needs no introduction. She was once famous for her remarkable stanning of our Mayor Eric Adams, but when his political capital nosedived she all but halted her cascade of appearances with the mayor. This year, she was the moderate challenger hoping to unseat lefty Jumaane Williams for public advocate, and she levied attacks (which some criticized as racist) that he was lazy and absent from his job. Rajkumar — who is also a strong supporter of Israel — lost to Williams by over 50 points but was able to keep her district, which includes parts of Ridgewood, Glendale and Woodhaven. "In 2020, Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar made history, defeating an 11-year incumbent by the largest margin of any challenger in New York State and tripling voter turnout to a record high,” her spokesperson Jacob Gross said in a statement. “Since then, she has brought that same unmatched energy and results to her district every day, backed by a broad, diverse coalition — and she’s just getting started." 4. Erik Dilan. District 54. Zohran vote share: 65% Primary endorsement: Cuomo First elected: 2014 Erik Dilan represents parts of Bushwick and Cypress Hills — and he has experience watching incumbents lose their seats to young, lefty challengers. His father, former state Sen. Marty Dilan, notably became the first sitting state legislator to lose a primary to a DSA member when he was ousted by Julia Salazar in 2018. The Assemblymember’s most recent primary challenge came from DSA member Samy Olivares in 2022; he squeaked by with 52 percent of the vote. He did not respond to a request for comment. 5. Al Taylor. District 71. Zohran vote share: 51% Primary endorsement: None First elected: 2017 Harlem saw a swing toward Mamdani, and Assemblymember Al Taylor’s district was no exception. While he didn’t endorse in the primary, Mamdani announced Thursday that Taylor is supporting him in the general election. Earlier this year, the Harlem lawmaker stood with other Black electeds to support Eric Adams during the brief period when Gov. Kathy Hochul was considering removing him from office. "As a longtime colleague in the NYS Assembly, I’ve had the privilege of working alongside Zohran Mamdani on issues that matter most to our communities,” Taylor said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing our work together, including making New York more affordable and our city safer. I am proud to support our Democratic nominee for Mayor and am eager to campaign with him leading up to the November election, doing my part to help create a brighter future for our city." — Jason Beeferman and Bill MahoneySUBPOENA SITUATION: The U.S. attorney’s office in Albany has issued two subpoenas to New York Attorney General Letitia James stemming from a pair of politically charged civil cases against President Donald Trump and the National Rifle Association, according to a person familiar with the matter. The subpoenas are an escalation of the Trump administration’s scrutiny of James, who has positioned herself as a ferocious opponent of the president. The Department of Justice earlier this year opened a separate investigation into mortgage fraud allegations against James, which she has denied. The New York Times first reported the subpoenas. “Any weaponization of the justice system should disturb every American,” James spokesperson Geoff Burgan said in a statement. “We stand strongly behind our successful litigation against the Trump Organization and the National Rifle Association, and we will continue to stand up for New Yorkers’ rights.” James’ civil fraud case against Trump led to a Manhattan trial judge last year determining the president and other defendants — including his adult sons — inflated his net worth and the value of his real estate properties. The judge ordered Trump to pay a massive financial penalty that, with interest, has ballooned to more than half a billion dollars. Trump is appealing that verdict. James’ office last year successfully won a fraud case against the NRA, the pro-gun rights advocacy group, with a jury determining its longtime CEO misspent the organization’s funds on expensive perks. “Investigating the fraud case Attorney General James won against President Trump and his businesses has to be the most blatant and desperate example of this administration carrying out the president’s political retribution campaign,” James’ personal attorney Abbe Lowell said. — Nick Reisman, Josh Gerstein and Erica Orden ‘HAPPY 90TH’: New York lawmakers joined the AARP to celebrate Social Security’s 90th anniversary today. The milestone comes at a perilous moment for the state’s social safety net, as the Empire State’s social service agencies brace for deep federal funding cuts in the Republican-led “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Lawler attended one AARP event today in the Hudson Valley’s Tarrytown. Lawler is a high-priority target for Democrats seeking to retake the House majority next year and he’s faced protests in his district over cuts to social service programs in the Republican megabill. But Lawler was greeted diplomatically today and focused his brief remarks on efforts to bolster area Social Security offices and how the megabill benefits seniors. “I am proud of the fact that as part of the tax bill, we were able to pass a $6,000 senior deduction, which will help offset Social Security taxes that is vital for our seniors who are living on a fixed income,” he said. It was a far cry from the combative “Morning Joe” interview he had earlier in the day, where host Joe Scarborough pressed him on the law’s impact on Medicaid and district hospitals. Lawler accused hospital representatives of “parroting” talking points. Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres joined a related AARP event in the Bronx today, telling the small crowd that he is “a lifelong ally in the fight for social security.” “For me, there is no greater responsibility for the federal government and for America than to protect Social Security for the present and future generation of older Americans,” Torres said. Torres didn’t directly criticize the megabill or his Republican colleagues in his address, but said “the top one percent does not pay their fair share into Social Security” — a pointed nod to the partisan debate. — Amira McKee and Emily Ngo— QUEENS BOYS: Trump and Cuomo’s have crossed paths in their personal and professional lives several times before. (The New York Times) — ONE WAY STREET: Mamdani has voiced support for Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in her bid for governor of New Jersey, but the moderate is keeping her distance. (POLITICO Pro) — GET OUT: The new Brooklyn headquarters for Adams’ reelection campaign has an outstanding vacate order. 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With help from Amira McKeeWHAT COULD BE ON TAP FOR 2028: There’s never been a full-fledged partisan gerrymander on the books for New York’s congressional districts. Democrats and Republicans have split power in Albany during most modern redistricting cycles. When they didn’t in 2024, the lines drawn by Democrats after a series of court battles were nowhere near as aggressive as some partisans hoped. Gov. Kathy Hochul now wants to change that in response to similar Republican efforts in Texas. Redrawing the lines would be complicated in the Empire State. It couldn’t happen until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, it could only move forward if voters approve a constitutional amendment to permit a mid-decade gerrymander. But that begs a big question: What would an all-out New York gerrymander look like? The political realities of 2028 are tough to predict. Some incumbents will be gone by then, and political shifts could come to various pockets of the state. And if President Donald Trump has his way, a new Census could throw the current mapmaking calculus out the window. But as things stand now, at least two Republicans have reason to fret, and maybe as many as four. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis has topped 60 percent in the past two elections. Her district currently encompasses Staten Island and merges it with portions of Brooklyn mostly to the east of the Verrazzano Bridge, most of them Republican-friendly. In 2022, Democrats wanted to extend the district further north into Brooklyn to include portions of the left-leaning enclave of Park Slope. Enacting such a plan would turn the district into a battleground. A more aggressive approach — harkening back to a map used in the 1970s — would merge Staten Island with parts of Manhattan.In Westchester, Democratic Rep. George Latimer has a lot of breathing room — he received 72 percent of the vote in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler doesn’t — he received 52 percent. There are towns, such as the ones immediately south of the Tappan Zee, that could be swapped from Latimer’s district to Lawler’s, growing the number of Democrats in the Republican’s seat.The four Congressional seats on Long Island are currently split between Democratic Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi and Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino. “You could pull Suozzi’s district more into the city. You could pull Gillen’s district more into Gregory Meeks’ territory,” Hofstra University’s Larry Levy said, referring to the Queens Congress member. That would allow for some portions of the Suozzi and Gillen districts to be merged with the Democratic strongholds currently situated in Republican districts: “You probably could make either Garbarino or LaLota more vulnerable, but not both,” Levy said. In the western half of upstate, Democratic Rep. Tim Kennedy and Republican Reps. Claudia Tenney and Nick Langworthy each received around 65 percent of the vote in 2024. Democratic Rep. Joe Morelle got 60 percent. There might be a path to joining slices of the Kennedy and Morelle seats with Democratic-friendly towns like Geneva and Oswego, allowing the Tenney district to become a bit more competitive. But there’s not much to work with. “Kennedy and Morelle are kind of islands of Democrats in a sea of Republicans,” one Buffalo Democrat said. With that in mind, the end result might just be jeopardizing two Democrats without actually making the Tenney seat winnable. — Bill MahoneyMAMDANI TURNS UP PRESSURE: Zohran Mamdani sought to press his advantage today among Democrats who have yet to support him by leveraging a New York Times report that rival Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump have discussed the mayoral race. “My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” Mamdani declared, predicting his policies to boost working-class New Yorkers would show how Trump has failed those communities. The Democratic nominee for mayor accused Cuomo of “conspiring” with Trump. He spoke to reporters in Lower Manhattan outside 26 Federal Plaza, where federal immigration agents have been detaining migrants outside of court. Mamdani, who defeated Cuomo by 12 points in the June primary, stood with the leaders of labor unions that have endorsed him after previously backing Cuomo. “We know that Andrew Cuomo will sell working people out for his interests, for the interests of the billionaires that support him, for the interests of Donald Trump,” Mamdani said, “because all of those interests are lining up as one and the same.” Cuomo, who’s running an independent general election bid, told reporters in Midtown Manhattan that he doesn’t remember the last time he spoke with Trump and knocked the story as “palace intrigue.” The former governor said he did “leave word” with the president after an assasination attempt. “I’ve never spoken to him about the mayor’s race,” Cuomo said, denying the Times report. “I had spoken to him when I was governor dozens and dozens, if not hundreds of times. We went through Covid together.” Cuomo told reporters he would defend New York City against Trump “with every ounce of my strength.” The Times additionally reported today that Cuomo has told business leaders he’s not “personally" looking for a fight with the president. In Brooklyn, Mayor Eric Adams, who’s also running as an independent, said he’s never discussed the campaign with Trump and that his "conversations with the president is about bringing resources to the city." Mamdani told reporters today that he’s willing to talk with Trump and keep an open dialogue but only to improve the lives of New Yorkers. “If he wants to actually act upon the cheaper groceries that he told us he would deliver, that is a different conversation,” the candidate said. — Emily Ngo, Joe Anuta and Amira McKee ‘LOOK ON THE HAT’: The first borough office of Adams’ uphill reelection campaign is borrowing the headquarters of one of Brooklyn's old-guard political clubs. The self-titled “child from Brownsville” cut the ribbon at his new Mill Basin office Thursday, announcing that the Thomas Jefferson Democratic Club headquarters — now plastered with “re-elect Eric for Mayor” posters — will serve as the nerve center for the campaign’s Brooklyn efforts. “Why Brooklyn?” Adams said at the Thursday event, gesturing to his cap. “Brooklyn is the place I was born. When you look on the hat, it says Brownsville. It was the place that shaped and made me. It was the place that taught me the fortitude that I have right now to lead this city.” Adams’ team said today it expects to unveil more offices across the five boroughs — just a day after the New York City Campaign Finance board denied the incumbent millions of dollars in public matching funds, putting him at a weighty financial disadvantage against Mamdani. This isn’t the first time Adams has encountered trouble with the CFB, whose public matching fund program requires strict adherence to reporting mandates and individual donation limits. A 900-page CFB audit of Adams’ 2021 campaign found more than 150 fundraising events that the Adams campaign said they paid for but did not document how much was spent and by whom — a red flag for potentially prohibited in-kind contributions. The campaign declined to address those irregularities in its official response. POLITICO reported in 2021 that Adams also intermittently used office space occupied by the Democratic Party’s law firm without disclosing the relationship in campaign finance filings. When asked about how much his campaign was spending to rent the home of one of New York’s oldest and most influential Democratic clubs, Adams shrugged. “Every payment we do is listed on the campaign finance so you can look at that,” he said. Despite the CFB denying his funding request for the tenth time yesterday, Adams said he was unfazed, dodging questions about whether he would shake up his campaign staff or forgo the matching program to accept larger donations. “The life of a person born in Brownsville, you're always meeting obstacles,” Adams said, again gesturing to his cap. “But in all those obstacles, what happened? I'm the mayor, because I'm a working class, resilient, hard working New Yorker, and we're used to obstacles.” — Amira McKeeDEPARTMENT OF WISHFUL THINKING: City Hall is asking agencies to contribute ideas for Mayor Eric Adams’ 2026 State of the City address — a request that assumes the mayor will win reelection despite poll numbers suggesting otherwise. On Wednesday, Deputy Mayor for Communications Fabien Levy blasted out a message encouraging agencies to submit ideas for the theoretical address by Aug. 11, according to a copy of the missive obtained by Playbook. The request comes as Adams, who is running as an independent, remains a longshot contender for a second term. The incumbent is running as an independent in an overwhelmingly Democratic town. The Campaign Finance Board appears determined to deny him millions of dollars in public matching funds. And the latest poll had the mayor winning just 7 percent of the vote, coming in behind Mamdani, Cuomo and GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa. Regardless, Levy is bullish on the mayor’s odds. “New York City’s public servants are at their best when putting politics aside and staying focused on the work — and that is exactly what we are doing,” he said in a statement. “The State of the City takes months of thoughtful planning, and we intend to deliver a speech in early 2026 that is as groundbreaking as ever.” Despite the aura of futility, some municipal workers are treating the exercise as a job preservation strategy, according to one city employee who was granted anonymity to discuss internal thinking. Should Mamdani win the general election, as polling currently indicates, senior staffers would have a readymade plan to pitch to the new administration and prove their worth. “Zohran’s people are going to gravitate to those who have an agenda that aligns with his populism,” another city staffer, also granted anonymity, told Playbook. Levy is convinced there will be no changing of the guard. “We have appreciated POLITICO’s coverage of our past four State of the City addresses, and we look forward to their continued coverage of Mayor Adams’ next four,” he said in his statement. — Joe Anuta— MEGABILL CUTS: New York’s social service providers are bracing for deep federal funding cuts as poverty rates rise among the state’s elderly. (New York Focus) — ANOTHER LAWSUIT: A former top NYPD lawyer is suing the department, accusing top brass of firing her for investigating Adams’ former Chief of Department Jeffrey Maddrey. (Gothamist) — SLOW DOWN: New York City has instituted a new e-bike speed limit, but local officials don’t have the teeth to enforce it. (The Wall Street Journal) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
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Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): For a long time, the economy has been seen as a big liability for President Biden in his reelection bid. Inflation soared in 2021 and 2022, culminating at a rate of 9.1 percent last June. The same
Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll

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