NEW YORK (WPIX) – The final major independent poll before Primary Day in New York City shows Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani passing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the last round of a ranked-choice voting simulation.
The survey of early voters and likely voters in the Democratic mayoral primary, conducted by Nexstar’s WPIX, Emerson College and The Hill, shows Mamdani winning in the final round, at roughly 52%, to Cuomo’s 48%.
Cuomo has the greatest number of first-choice ballots, with the first round of the ranked choice voting simulation showing him at 36%, Mamdani at 34%, and New York City Comptroller Brad Lander at 13%. Cuomo maintains his lead as the simulation plays out until the final round, when Lander is eliminated and the majority of his “second choice” ballots flow to Mamdani.
Mamdani and Lander have cross-endorsed each other, urging their supporters to rank the other candidate second on their ballots. The cross-endorsement is one of the several major developments this polling captures for the first time.
Conducted June 18-20, the polling surveys New Yorkers following major late breaking campaign developments, including: several cross-endorsements; the final Democratic primary debate; Lander’s brief detention by ICE just outside of federal immigration court; a controversy surrounding Mamdani’s defense of the words “globalize the intifada”; Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsing Mamdani; Cuomo gaining increasing support in the Jewish community, and several influential opinion pieces in the pages of The New York Times.
Developments over the weekend, such as former President Bill Clinton endorsing Cuomo, would not have been a factor for voters surveyed.
If the poll ends up being a predictor of the June 24 Democratic primary result, it would mark a meteoric rise for Mamdani, who was polling at 1% in Emerson’s first survey in February.
The poll also found that most New York City Democratic primary voters have made up their minds, with only 4% still undecided.
The most recent independent polling from a major organization before this poll came from Marist. Marist found that about 11% of primary voters were undecided and found Cuomo winning by double digits both in the first and final rounds.
A source close to the Cuomo campaign said its internal polling is more consistent with the findings of the Marist poll. However, with early voting turnout nearly double what it was four years ago, especially in deeply liberal pockets of Manhattan and Brooklyn, Mamdani’s campaign is projecting confidence.
“This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double-digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow. Between now and then, we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as mayor,” a spokesperson for Cuomo told WPIX.