Democratic leaders in Illinois and Maryland are under growing pressure to move forward with redistricting as they eye potential White House bids in 2028 and Republicans in other states move forward with rewriting their own congressional lines.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) has said all options are on the table for redistricting in his state, while Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) has said he is not inclined to engage in partisan redistricting but said Democrats would think about how to counter GOP efforts if they spread to other red states.
Their comments come as the redistricting battle spreads across the country, and as potential Democratic presidential contenders take note of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) popular response to similar gerrymandering efforts in Texas.
“You have to imagine that Pritzker and Wes Moore are looking at the kind of attention that Gavin Newsom got,” said Dan Kanninen, a Democratic strategist and battleground states director for former Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign.
“That’s the kind of thing a campaign tactician might look at and said, ‘Oh boy, we want to replicate some of that to build our own national profile,’” he added.
On Wednesday, Missouri’s GOP-controlled General Assembly convened to consider mid-decade redistricting after Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) called a special session on the matter. The move comes after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) recently signed into law a new congressional map that could net the party as many as five additional seats next year.
A Morning Consult survey released late last month found that Newsom’s support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents increased by 8 points to 19 percent in late August. Pritzker garnered 3 percent support in the same poll while Moore came in at 1 percent support.
Moore and Pritzker have both signaled they are open to the possibility of redistricting if Republicans in other states move forward with their own efforts
“What happened in Texas and is now spreading to other Republican-controlled states like Missouri is nothing more than a power grab by Donald Trump,” said David Turner, a spokesperson for Moore, in a statement to The Hill.
Last week, Maryland state Sen. Clarence Lam (D) filed a proposal to redraw the state’s congressional map, calling the move “a warning shot” to Republicans.
Pritzker has also suggested that Democrats should only consider engaging in redistricting if it’s part of an effort to counter Republicans.
“That’s not something that I want to do. It’s not something that any of us want to do,” Pritzker told CBS News. “But I have to say, if Donald Trump is going to force his will on the American people by going to his MAGA allies in various states and having them redraw in the middle of a decade — when you’re supposed to be doing it right after a census, with a year ending in one, not a year ending in five.”
“If he’s going to do that all over the country, I think all of us have to think about what it is that we can do to counter that,” he added.
After months of struggling to recover from Trump’s win in November, Democrats have rallied around redistricting as a unifying issue. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said last month the party is well positioned to hit back against GOP redistricting efforts, pledging to “fight fire with fire.”
A number of recent polls found that a majority of voters across parties are distrustful of gerrymandering but are becoming more open to their states going forward with it amid the ongoing redistricting arms race.
A YouGov poll released last week found that support for Democrats redrawing districts to help themselves if Texas acted first increased among all adults from 24 percent earlier in August to 31 percent. The percentage of Democrats backing a response rose from 40 percent to 53 percent.
“It’s an early skirmish where Democrats have found their punching stance,” Kanninen said.
Moore and Pritzker also find themselves in a unique situation, given Trump’s threats to deploy the National Guard to Chicago and Baltimore, which both governors have strongly pushed back on.
The redistricting battle, coupled with combating Trump’s push to deploy the military, stands to give both governors the opportunity to present themselves as alternatives to Trump.
“If you’re running for president in the Democratic primary, any opportunity you have to be seen standing up to this president or getting stuff done to help your state is where you want to be,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist.
There is a fine line that many governors need to walk when dealing with the federal government, something that Newsom knows all too well.
Earlier this year, Newsom struck a more amiable tone toward Trump when he traveled to Washington to ask for federal funding to combat the deadly wildfires that ravaged much of Southern California. The president and the governor also had a friendly exchange when Trump visited the state to survey the damage from the fires. Newsom told the president that he did not forget how Trump’s first administration was there for California during the coronavirus pandemic.
“For governors in particular … you need the federal government to deliver for you sometimes. I think people forget that,” Nellis said. “There may be a time again where Gavin has to play nice with Trump.”
Newsom has also faced his share of criticism in the past from critics who have taken note of his own political ambitions and efforts to build his national brand.
Strategists warn that elected officials need to be cognizant of this if they are considering a future in higher office.
“You have a responsibility to the people who elected you to deliver for them and that is far more important than playing politics or trying to run for president,” Nellis said, calling running for president “a crapshoot.”
There’s also the possibility that Moore and Pritzker could appear to be mimicking Newsom’s strategy, but strategists note this is not a risk in the long term.
“Both of these guys will find ways to defend their state, to defend their maps, to defend their posture in ways that feel authentic to them,” Kanninen said. “And if it ends up being the case that Gavin Newsom is still seen as the person who led us into this fight, I think they’ll live with that.”
