California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is seeing his name rise toward the top of potential 2028 contenders following his fight with President Trump over the unrest in Los Angeles.
In the wake of immigration protests that roiled the city and prompted Trump to send in the National Guard without Newsom’s approval, the governor has framed himself as the face of resistance to Trump’s second-term moves, energizing Democrats and upping his 2028 primary chances in a recent Morning Consult poll.
But Democrats also acknowledge Newsom faces an uphill climb as he handles the end of his tenure as governor and navigates the nation’s polarized political climate.
“He’s doing really well among Democrats, both in California and throughout the nation. He’s getting a boost in 2025,” said John Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.
“Unfortunately for him, a presidential nomination won’t happen until 2028.”
Newsom, who emerged during Trump’s first administration as a leader of the Democratic resistance, started the year with what appeared to be a friendlier approach to the administration and a GOP-controlled Washington. He struck a conciliatory tone as he lobbied Trump for aid after catastrophic wildfires ravaged California in the winter, and then he made headlines with the launch of a podcast hosting prominent Trump supporters.
The moves were a pivot toward the center amid speculation about whether he would launch a 2028 bid. But when Trump responded to protests this month over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids by sending in hundreds of National Guard troops against Newsom’s objections, the governor embraced the face-off.
In fiery speeches, TV appearances and social media posts, Newsom has cast Trump’s moves in California as executive overreach and warned of an existential fight for democracy, drawing ire from the right. He dared Trump’s border czar Tom Homan to arrest him, which Trump later said he’d support.
“Trump is trying to destroy Democracy. Do not let him,” Newsom wrote in his first post on a new Substack page this week.
The protests and the clash between the leaders have carried political risks for both sides of the aisle, but they’ve also intensified the spotlight on the term-limited governor long suspected of having national ambitions.
Polling on 2028 is sparse. But in a Morning Consult survey taken June 13-15, as the LA protests were dying down, 11 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would back Newsom in a 2028 primary, up from 5 percent who said the same in March.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris was still the clear front-runner, with 34 percent support, but her backing ticked down 2 points from March — while Newsom overtook both former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).
Newsom has so far stayed quiet about the speculation and his future plans. But he has signaled the door is open to a potential presidential run.
“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold,” he told The Wall Street Journal amid his latest feuding with Trump. Pressed on the question by guest Dr. Phil on the “This is Gavin Newsom” podcast earlier this month, the governor said “fate will determine that” and noted that he’s got his “hands full” for the next couple years.
Democratic strategist Maria Cardona stressed that Newsom’s resistance to GOP policies is part of the job description as governor of a big blue state like California — and not necessarily an “auditioning” for higher office. Still, she said his public sparring with Trump about the protests “certainly doesn’t hurt” his future prospects.
“It highlights and it gives faith to the base of the Democratic Party, independents, frankly, also to common-sense Republicans … that there is fight in the opposition, that there are people willing to confront Trump and go toe to toe with him,” Cardona said.
Newsom’s high-profile resistance also comes at a key point for the party, as Democrats regroup after a devastating election last year, noted California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.
“Democrats are desperate for a leader, and I think he’s had his 15 minutes, and that helped him rocket to the top of the latest polls,” Maviglio said.
But a swell of energy three years before an election would be hard for any prospective candidate to maintain, experts noted, and Newsom faces some unique hurdles if he ends up pursuing the presidency.
For one, California has increasingly become a target of the right, and the protests have given Republicans scenes of chaos to point to as they argue that Democrats are soft on crime and immigration.
“It’s both a strength and a weakness … California is 20 percent of the country, so he’s got a lot of name ID. He’s a major national figure, just by virtue of the fact that he’s the governor of a huge state,” said Matt Bennett, Democratic strategist and co-founder of centrist think tank Third Way.
“It’s a weakness because California is perceived, fairly or not, as being very blue, very liberal. And he was mayor of San Francisco, which is even more blue and more liberal. So I do think he’s got things in his past that are going to make it difficult for him to escape the stereotypical view of Democrats,” Bennett said.
The protests are also unlikely to be Newsom’s last brush with Trump, and the governor may need to further tweak his approach to help his state get what it needs, noted Pitney, the professor at Claremont McKenna College.
“Whether it’s another set of wildfires, an earthquake, mudslides, something bad is going to happen. We know that that is part of living in California. And when that happens, we’re going to need federal help, and at that point, he’s going to have to turn on the mute button,” Pitney said.
To that point, though, some are also questioning whether Newsom’s effort to shift gears between conciliatory and confrontational with Trump could be a political liability moving forward.
“His weakness is that he’s been all over the map in terms of his relationship with Trump,” Maviglio said.
“He tried to be the accommodating moderate for a few months, and that wasn’t working. So now he’s become the anti-Trump, and he gained steam from that. But this is precisely why he’s not trusted by the progressive wing of the party or the moderate wing, because he’s all over the map, and it’s been inconsistent.”
Bennett, on the other hand, shrugged off concerns about the shift in tone, arguing that Trump is so “mercurial” in his own right that those engaging with him are “going to be [as] all over the map as he is.”
“I think that Newsom’s fight with Trump is good for him and his standing with the party. He has been resolute and tough, and I think that’s probably helping him,” Bennett said.
Yet another complication, though, is that Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2028 — and opposition to him may not end up as a defining issue.
If Newsom does decide to run, he’d have to navigate that new territory, while also dealing with a potentially tricky gap between his exit from the governor’s mansion and the election.
“It’s always a tough balancing act for governors and others, especially governors who tend to be term limited … to figure out what to do with that awkward year between them leaving office and running for president, and how do you stay relevant?” Bennett said. “That is a challenge for anyone who’s out of office when they go to try to run for president, and it’s tough to do.”