Immigration may be one of President Trump’s strongest issues, but recent polling data suggests that the administration’s tactics are facing growing opposition, potentially turning one of Trump’s strengths into a vulnerability.
Put another way, as protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement efforts rage in Los Angeles and other cities, Americans increasingly disapprove of Trump’s response, even if they also do not support the civil unrest.
Indeed, a plurality (47 percent) of Americans disapprove of Trump’s decision to deploy the Marines, versus 34 percent who approve, according to YouGov polling.
As it relates to the president’s decision to federalize the California National Guard and deploy them against the protestors, a similar 45 percent of Americans disapprove, while 38 percent approve, the same poll shows.
Those views, combined with the fact that it’s incredibly hard to argue, as the administration has, that the protests pose a credible threat to the United States, make it more likely that support for Trump’s approach will further decline.
After a U.S. District Court ruled that Trump’s use of the National Guard was illegal, an appeals court reversed that decision, letting the order remain in place for now.
To be sure, Americans also take a dim view of the protests themselves, something Axios described as a continuation of a historical trend.
By a 9-point margin (45 percent to 36 percent), Americans disapprove of the protests in Los Angeles, and there is a virtual tie on whether people believe the protests are “mostly peaceful” (38 percent) or “mostly violent” (36 percent).
Predictably, Democrats (58 percent) are more supportive of the protests than Republicans (15 percent), although a plurality of independents (41 percent) disapprove.
In some ways, the administration should have foreseen Americans’ hesitancy when it comes to using the military to enforce immigration policies, even those that had widespread support.
Immediately after Trump’s inauguration, 66 percent of Americans supported deporting illegal migrants, but only 38 percent supported involving the military, according to Ipsos.
To that end, despite mixed feelings over the protests, the administration’s recent hardline rhetoric and policies are beginning to weigh on perceptions of Trump’s handling of immigration more broadly.
In early March, Trump had a plus-13 net approval on immigration (53 percent to 40 percent) according to Economist/YouGov polling.
That same poll, conducted as the situation in Los Angeles deteriorated and Trump federalized the National Guard, shows Trump’s net approval on immigration shrinking to plus-4 (49 percent to 45 percent).
Moreover, the more recent poll reveals that a plurality (47 percent) of Americans, including a 44 percent plurality of independents, believe that Trump’s approach to immigration is “too harsh.”
Other polls are even more negative for the White House.
A recent Quinnipiac poll, also conducted as the protests in Los Angeles began in earnest, shows Trump’s approval on immigration actually underwater, with just 43 percent of registered voters approving, versus a majority (54 percent) disapproving.
To be clear, this is not to say that Americans are suddenly against tougher immigration policies. As the data shows, Americans remain broadly supportive of many of Trump’s policies.
For example, there is near-universal support (87 percent) for deporting migrants who commit violent crimes, and a plurality (47 percent) of Americans support deportations for migrants who commit non-violent crimes, per the aforementioned Economist/YouGov poll.
Rather, this is to make the point that when the administration takes an extreme approach or acts hastily, it does so without broader support among American voters.
The same poll reveals widespread opposition to deporting migrants married to U.S. citizens (66 percent) and those brought here as children (61 percent).
A majority (54 percent) of Americans also opposes deporting migrants with young children born in the U.S., even if the parents are in the country illegally.
Similarly, 57 percent believe the administration is making mistakes in who it is deporting, while 74 percent say the government should make sure no mistakes are made in who is deported, even if it drags out the process.
Taken together, the polling data should serve as a warning to both the administration and the Democrats.
For the White House and Trump, heavy-handed deportation policies risk undermining support for what is his strongest issue. They should recalibrate their approach and tailor it narrowly, so that not every single immigrant is in their crosshairs.
Few Americans, outside of the far left, would have an issue if the administration stuck to its policy of deporting migrants who commit crimes, and it would be a losing issue for Democrats to stand in the way.
At the same time, Americans do broadly support many of Trump’s policies, and he was elected in large part because of his promise to remove violent migrants.
Last Summer, a Democratic consulting firm published a survey which noted that, if former President Biden were reelected, the top two concerns Americans had were that the border would be wide open (51 percent), and crime would be out of control, threatening police and businesses (50 percent).
Instead of blindly opposing all of Trump’s immigration policies, Democrats should consider this their “Sister Souljah” moment. They can affirm their support for deporting violent criminals, advance their own pathway to citizenship for some migrants, and double down on support for law and order.
Ultimately, given the salience of this issue, it is likely that whichever side internalizes the polling data and adjusts its approach first stands to benefit politically. It just remains to be seen whether Trump or Democrats are willing to do so.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”