Texas state Rep. James Talarico’s (D) entry into the Democratic Senate primary in Texas has shaken up the race and thrilled those who think new blood will give Democrats a boost heading into next year.
Talarico, one of the legislators who fled the Lone Star State to stall Republicans’ redistricting push, enters the primary against former Rep. Colin Allred (D), who tried for Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R) seat in last year’s midterms.
Both Democrats are vying to oust Sen. John Cornyn (R), the longtime incumbent who faces a difficult challenge from his right in state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), as the party becomes increasingly bullish about making inroads in Texas.
“It really is whether or not James can take what is clearly a sense of some excitement around his candidacy and expand that,” said Matt Angle, founder and director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic PAC.
“Colin now has more of a footprint and has proven that he can build a diverse coalition, both in the primary and in the general election. And there’s a challenge to James as to whether or not he can do that. If he does, then you’ll have a barn burner of a race.”
Talarico, a 36-year-old Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher, launched his campaign on Tuesday with a message of unity, pitching his campaign as “the underdogs in this fight.”
“Those billionaires want to keep us from seeing all that we have in common. … Because once we do, we’ll come together — across party, across race, across gender, across religion — to fix what’s broken in our country and take back power for ourselves and our communities,” he said in an announcement that leaned heavily into his faith alongside his progressive politics.
The state legislator was among the Texas Democrats who broke quorum this summer, depriving the state House of the numbers it needed to make progress on GOP-friendly redistricting backed by President Trump. The proposal eventually passed, but not before Talarico beckoned the national spotlight as he clashed with Republican colleagues.
Prior to that, he drew national attention for a surprise appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, a program that is particularly popular with young men, garnering high praise as the host urged him to run for president. And with more than a million followers on TikTok, Talarico has repeatedly gone viral for his takes on education and faith.
Talarico will first face off in a March primary against Allred, who lost his bid for Cruz’s seat by roughly 9 percentage points last fall and has since been seen as a favorite to get the Democratic nod a second time.
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll out this week found that 63 percent of Democrats hold a favorable impression of Allred, while another 60 percent said they weren’t sure about Talarico.
Public Policy Polling data shared by Politico this week also showed Allred with the clear edge in terms of name ID, but found Talarico just 8 points behind the front-runner in a hypothetical primary race.
The primary will be largely about “who people can relate to, who people think is a better communicator” rather than any stark ideological differences between the candidates — and whether “those things can add up to Democrats actually winning this year and finally breaking through,” said Luke Warford, a founding partner at the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund.
Former astronaut Terry Virts is among the other Democratic contenders, though he has struggled to break through in recent polling. Beto O’Rourke, who energized Texas Democrats with his 2018 Senate run, has also been floated as a contender.
“I’ve never taken anything for granted in life or politics, and this campaign is no exception. I know why I’m running: to lower costs, tackle the affordability crisis head-on, and stop corrupt politicians like John Cornyn and Ken Paxton from rigging the system to make life more expensive for hardworking Texans,” Allred said in a statement, without directly mentioning Talarico’s entry.
“For the next fourteen months, my focus will be on meeting with and listening to Texas families — all across our state — to build the diverse coalition we need to win.”
Talarico notably supported Allred in 2024, and he told Axios this week he’s “not interested in tearing down fellow Texas Democrats.”
Political observers think Talarico could surge to the fore in the primary despite, or perhaps because of, his outsider status.
“Allred was an incredible candidate … but we haven’t seen enthusiasm in the way that we would want to see, going in to 2026,” said Lana Hansen, executive director of Texas Blue Action, an Austin-based Democratic advocacy group.
“I think [Talarico’s campaign] is going to recharge a lot of the base in Texas, and hopefully speak to some of those Republicans that are not happy with what they’re seeing from their own party,” she said, adding that he’s “sort of painting this new, fresh picture about what Democrats are.”
Talarico’s emphasis on faith, experts noted, could be a particular advantage against Paxton, who’s been embroiled in ethics scandals and whose wife recently filed for divorce on biblical grounds.
“Democrats want somebody who is more energetic, younger, but more importantly, someone, because of Talarico’s background, that can literally go toe-to-toe with the religious conservatives in the Republican Party,” said Jon Taylor, a University of Texas at San Antonio political science professor.
Cornyn’s seat has been under Republican control for decades, and any Democrat will face an uphill climb in a state that went to President Trump by 14 points in November.
“Democrats are going to have to choose who they think is the best to carry the water pail against the Republican nominee,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.
He predicted it won’t be an “ugly” race between the Democratic rivals, but he said the primary results could be revelatory when it comes to charting a path forward for the party in the red stronghold.
The Cook Political Report rates the seat as “likely Republican.” But Democrats say they’re excited about their chances in Texas, particularly if Paxton is able to defeat Cornyn in the bitter GOP primary and advance to the general.
“If it’s ever going to happen, it’s going to be in a midterm when there’s dissatisfaction with the president and where the Democrats have got a candidate that really excites the base,” Rottinghaus said. “That might be the case for Talarico, or it may not. We’ll see.”
