European countries are taking steps to sanction oil infrastructure in China but are unlikely to impose tariffs on Beijing, a step President Trump has set out as a prerequisite of sorts for the U.S. to impose tougher sanctions on Russia.
Trump in a Truth Social post this week said he was “ready to do major Sanctions on Russia” when all members of NATO “do the same thing,” and when NATO members stop buying oil from Russia.
“I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip,” Trump wrote in the post.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a hawk on Russia, said Friday in a post on X that the European Union’s decision to sanction oil infrastructure was “a significant step in the right direction.”
“I applaud President Trump’s insistence that Europe up its game regarding sanctions and other punitive measures directed toward countries like China, India and Brazil that buy cheap Russian oil, giving Putin the revenue to continue the bloodbath in Ukraine,” Graham wrote.
“I hope and expect that President Trump will now also allow punitive measures toward China for propping up Putin’s war machine,” he added.
But if Trump wants to see European countries first impose tariffs on China, he might have set up a prospect unlikely to be met.
Practically speaking, it is not easy for members of the European Union to approve sanctions, even if some members want to.
The ability to impose tariffs are “under a separate, far more complex regime: they require lengthy legal justification under EU and WTO rules, and agreement among 27 member states,” said Alena Kudzko, executive director of Globsec US Foundation, a Washington-based public-policy organization focused on Central and Eastern Europe.
European countries also disagree on whether sanctions are a good idea.
Kudzko pointed out that while the E.U. has sanctioned several Chinese companies over their support for Russia’s war effort, and is considering further sanctions, “there is no consensus on how hard Europe should be on Beijing in general.”
China is the largest importer to Europe and third-largest market for European exports.
“You cannot decouple from China now, as we speak,” one European diplomat told The Hill of the situation in Europe. This diplomat added that it would be “very hard for many Europeans to play hardball with China.”
Europe’s spring economic forecast raised warnings about global economic uncertainty and moderate growth for the continent. That atmosphere makes Europe far more cautious over a trade war with China, or even with India.
And Trump may be looking for an out in taking action against China. He described a phone call with Chinese President Xi on Friday as “very good,” saying the two made progress on a deal to keep TikTok operating in the U.S., one of the most contentious issues in ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China. Trump said the two leaders plan to meet for the first time in November on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea and make further plans to visit each other’s countries.
Some see Trump’s demands as a smokescreen to avoid punishing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“One of the things I think we should do is the president should, instead of saying, ‘OK, Europe, you put sanctions on and we will,’ you’ve got to lead and that means putting the sanctions on Russia and our European partners will, I think, come along,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“What we’ve seen is no leadership when it comes to Ukraine from the president.”
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Trump’s demands “just gives another green light to Putin to continue to bomb Ukraine.”
Republicans have generally avoided public criticism of Trump, but some have vented behind the scenes over the president’s refusal to give a go-ahead to vote on a bipartisan sanctions bill.
Legislation sponsored by Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) would impose 500 percent tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil. It is largely focused on China and India.
“I’m sick of Trump and [Vice President JD Vance] and their love affair with everything Putin,” one Senate Republican vented to The Hill over the stalled sanctions package.
Some in Europe see Trump’s demands as a signal to Putin that he’s willing to get tough on allies in his bid to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“This is a concerted message to Moscow: Europe is serious about sanctions and Trump is even more serious and finger-pointing closest allies, including political allies, the prime minister of Hungary and the prime minister of Slovakia,” the diplomat said.
Hungary and Slovakia continue to buy oil from Russia, although they are on a deadline to end purchases by 2027.
Trump views Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as a conservative ally in Europe, and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has criticized Europe’s support for Ukraine, praises Trump for his “directness” and “spreading the truth.”
“This is clear messaging, putting pressure, positive pressure, to get on the 19th [EU] sanctions package to show the Russians we are serious,” the European diplomat said.
Globsec’s Kudzko echoed that sentiment.
“Some pressure is, in fact, welcome in Brussels,” she said.
“An overwhelming majority of E.U. countries have sharply reduced reliance on Russian oil and gas, with the notable exceptions of Hungary and Slovakia. The U.S. leverage could be very useful: Washington has very good leverage with these governments and could press them to move in line with the broader E.U. policy on Russian oil and gas.”
Clayton Seigle, senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, called Trump’s demands on European oil imports “low hanging fruit” but said the effort to impose costs on China is likely going to require a new approach.
Seigle is proposing a surcharge on Russia’s discounted oil that purchasers, like China and India, would pay to an as-of-yet undefined mechanism. Russia’s oil is discounted because of a price cap implemented in response to its invasion of Ukraine, making its oil 15 percent less than the price of oil on the market.
Adding a surcharge would make Russia’s oil less competitive on the market, keep Moscow’s revenues low, and generate potential funds that can be used for Ukraine’s defense or reconstruction, he argued.
“The whole point is building on the administration’s idea of using tariffs as geopolitical leverage,” he said.
“Here’s a way to build on that on the oil front, which should leave Putin with a lot less money and free up a new cash flow for U.S. economic security.”
