In today’s issue:
▪ GOP, Trump pile pressure on Dems in shutdown fight
▪ Newsom, California pledge to sue Trump over troops
▪ Big debates for New Jersey, Virginia governor’s races
▪ International students ‘trapped’ in US
President Trump, his top administrative lieutenants and his allies in Congress are taking every step possible to raise the pressure on Democrats, hoping they’ll bend and then break in the government shutdown battle at the Capitol.
Since the shutdown began last Wednesday, Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at every step have signaled they are confident they have the upper hand in the public relations battle.
A big part of this is the divide in the Senate Democratic caucus on repeated votes over the House GOP’s “clean” measure to keep the government funded through Nov. 21.
Two Democrats, Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.) and Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), along with Sen. Angus King (Maine), an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, each time have voted with Republicans.
The senators will get another chance on Monday afternoon, when the Senate is back in Washinton and members will vote again on the House GOP bill, and a Senate Democratic alternative, to reopen the government.
The vast majority of Senate Democrats are voting “no” on the House GOP bill, but the defections have given Republicans hope and confidence that it is only a matter of time until more Democrats in the Senate buckle.
To push them along, Johnson is keeping the House GOP conference at home, opening himself to Democratic attacks along the way but signaling he has no interest in and is feeling no pressure to modify his chamber’s spending bill.
Economic advisers to Trump, along with Johnson, in separate interviews on Sunday signaled promised layoffs of federal employees are coming. That’s a big part of the effort to put the squeeze on Democrats.
Johnson and Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, on Sunday cast Trump as reluctant to go forward with layoffs, seeking to blame Democrats for what comes next.
The Speaker said layoffs would be “a regrettable situation that the president does not want,” while Hassett said layoffs would start “if the president decides that the negotiations are absolutely going nowhere.”
“But I think that everybody’s still hopeful that when we get a fresh start at the beginning of the week that we can get the Democrats to see that it’s just common sense to avoid layoffs like that, to avoid the $15 billion a week that the Council of Economic Advisers says will harm GDP if we have a shutdown,” Hassett added.
My colleague Al Weaver over the weekend profiled the Senate Democrats both sides are looking at closely.
The pressure campaign upped over the weekend by Johnson and Hassett is intended to make Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and others have second thoughts on Monday when they are again faced with the House GOP’s “clean” funding bill.
Democrats say that bill is hardly clean. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in a video last week that some Democrats said was more effective than their leadership’s shutdown messaging called it a “dirty” bill, arguing it would lead thousands to see their health care costs rise because it does nothing to prevent enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act from expiring at the end of the year.
Republicans argue the health care subsidies are an issue that can be dealt with later. Open the government first, they argue.
Will the GOP pressure campaign work?
Plenty of observers might question just how reluctant Hassett, Johnson, Trump and others in the administration are about making federal layoffs, given the cuts to federal workers that have already taken place in Trump’s second term.
According to the nonpartisan, nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, the administration has cut 201,000 civil servants, through firings, forced relocations and a “deferred resignation” program, since Trump took office on Jan. 20. These figures are to date as of Sept. 23, according to the group.
Trump and a number of his top advisers at times have relished the chance to cut the workforce. Tech mogul Elon Musk, who headed the Department of Government Efficiency before leaving the government after falling out with Trump, showed up at the Conservative Political Action Conference with a chainsaw in February to highlight his efforts to cut waste and workers.
Just a few days ago, Trump posted a video that compared Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, a key figure in the shutdown, to the grim reaper because of the cuts to workers that were coming.
The tone of the video didn’t suggest Trump held particular regret for the layoffs, either.
As a modified version of the classic Blue Oyster Cult tune plays in the background, Trump is shown in the video playing the cowbell (see Christopher Walken) and Vice President Vance the drums as Vought, an author of the conservative Project 2025, in grim reaper robes walks past apparently nervous government bureaucrats.
It also included a number of shots at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and many other Democrats, signaling they would be to blame if the reaper went to work. The whole thing was another example of the meme culture Trump has repeatedly engaged in, often in humorous ways, to score points and rally his base.
But it offered a different sort of backdrop when Johnson and Hassett stressed Sunday that the administration and GOP didn’t really want to go through with mass firings.
“In a situation like this, where the Senate Democrats have decided to turn the keys to the kingdom over to the White House, they have to make tough decisions. Russ Vought runs the Office of Management and Budget. He has to now look at all of the federal government, recognizing that the funding streams have been turned off and determine what are essential programs, policies, and personnel,” Johnson said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
“That’s not a job that he relishes,” Johnson insisted. “But he’s being required to do it by Chuck Schumer.”
The budget director is best known as a critic of Washington’s bureaucracy and bloat.
In a recent profile, The New York Times noted that in 2022, a shadow budget released by Vought offered a prescription to remove “the scourge of woke and weaponized bureaucracy aimed at the American people,” including deep cuts to Medicaid, foreign aid, scientific research and other programs.
Plenty of Democrats would argue it doesn’t matter if there’s a shutdown or not. Vought and Trump will seek to make more cuts to the federal workforce, while Johnson, Thune and other Republicans in Congress look on supportively.
In fact, Democrats looking to bolster any colleagues getting nervous about the prolonged shutdown are making that argument, in public and likely in private.
The newsletter began with the point that the actions by GOP and Trump show off their confidence.
But in Democrats, they are running into an opposition that seems to feel equally confident when it comes to the shutdown.
Polls released last week generally showed more of the public blaming the GOP for a shutdown than Democrats, which could reflect the fact that Republicans hold the White House and both chambers of Congress. They are in control at the Capitol, and as such get a lot of the credit and blame for what happens.
Democrats also aren’t feeling pressure from the lawmakers who represent federal workers yet, some of which are itching for a fight with Trump.
And the Democratic base is itching for a fight the most with Trump. Parts of the base will be significantly disappointed if Democrats open the government.
None of this makes it likely that the shutdown is going to end anytime soon.
If you could place a bet, the safe money on Monday would be on the Senate failing to end the shutdown. And with the House gone all week, it’s entirely possible this shutdown is headed toward at least mid-October before it ends.
▪ The Washington Post: Government shutdowns have become normal. This one is not
▪ The New York Times: Both parties are resigned to deadlock as shutdown takes hold
Smart Take with Blake Burman
We wake up this morning to no weekend movement with the government shutdown. It’s now day six, and there’s no clear off ramp. The House is out this week (as of now) and gridlock remains in the Senate.
Among the many issues before the White House, President Trump resurfaced another one Sunday night: housing. He compared the home building industry of today to OPEC and high oil prices in the past, saying homebuilders need to start constructing homes. “I’m asking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get Big Homebuilders going and, by so doing, help restore the American Dream!” the president added.
Fannie and Freddie help provide liquidity to make the housing market go, but how the president envisions them being the next key to housing affordability is still TBD. Interest rates aren’t substantially different from a year ago, even despite the recent interest rate cut from the Fed and hopes for more. At some point the government shutdown will resolve itself, but the housing issue will still be here and likely persist.
3 Things to Know Today
1. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday said an independent Palestinian state is “not even a realistic thing right now.” The secretary’s comments come after Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007, said it could agree to parts of the peace plan Trump endorsed last week, leaving key areas open for negotiation.
2. President Trump called on Democratic Virginia attorney general nominee Jay Jones to drop out of his race after the release of leaked text messages from nearly a decade ago that showed Jones talking favorably about former state House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R) being killed. Jones has apologized for the texts, which have rocked the race.
3. The Supreme Court on Monday will open a new term. According to The Hill’s Ella Lee, the court is poised to review 39 argued cases so far, including Trump’s bid to keep his most significant economic initiative intact and a redistricting case that stands to upend a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. Decisions are expected by summer. Read more about it here.
Leading the Day
TRUMP VS. CHICAGO, PORTLAND & CALIFORNIA: The president’s battle over crime in Democratic cities took new and unexpected turns over the weekend as California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said guard members from his state were being sent by the Trump administration to Oregon’s largest city.
Meanwhile, tensions are also on the rise in Chicago, where Trump is opening a new front in the crime-and-cities battle with a second Democrat, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who like Newsom is widely seen as a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028.
The drama was building from coast to coast, particularly after a woman was reportedly shot in Chicago by federal troops who said they had been boxed in by demonstrators.
But some of the more important flare-ups on Sunday came from Sacramento.
Newsom said Trump was now seeking to take California National Guard troops and deploy them to Portland, something he called a “breathtaking abuse of power.” He also said his state would sue over the matter.
“The Trump Administration is unapologetically attacking the rule of the law itself and putting into action their dangerous words — ignoring court orders and treating judges, even those appointed by the President himself, as political opponents,” Newsom stated.
“This isn’t about public safety, it’s about power,” Newsom added. “The commander-in-chief is using the U.S. military as a political weapon against American citizens. We will take this fight to court, but the public cannot stay silent in the face of such reckless and authoritarian conduct by the President of the United States.”
In a statement to The Hill, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said the president “exercised his lawful authority to protects federal assets and personnel” in Portland.
“For once, Gavin Newscum should stand on the side of law-abiding citizens instead of violent criminals destroying Portland and cities across the country,” Jackson added, utilizing the nickname Trump often uses for the California governor.
Trump previously sent the National Guard to California in response to sometimes violent immigration demonstrations in that state.
The president’s effort in Portland appeared to take a sizeable hit on Saturday after Judge Karin Immergut, whom Trump appointed, issued a temporary restraining order preventing the president from mobilizing Oregon troops to be deployed to Portland.
“This is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law,” Immergut wrote, as reported by my colleague Ella Lee.
The battle stems from Trump’s insistence that there is a need for the federal government to respond to demonstrations that have been held at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement building in Portland.
In her Saturday ruling, Immergut agreed that the president is “certainly entitled” to a great level of deference but said that is not equivalent to “ignoring the facts on the ground.”
“The President’s determination was simply untethered to the facts,” the judge wrote.
Immergut, in rejecting the administration’s bid, wrote that she believed a trial court would agree with the state of Oregon that Trump was exceeding his constitutional powers by sending in the state’s National Guard troops over the local objections.
In an emergency hearing Sunday, the judge broadened her restraining order to cover “relocation, federalization or deployment of members of the National Guard of any state or the District of Columbia in the state of Oregon,” The New York Times reported. The judge told administration lawyers that Trump was “in direct contravention” of her order.
▪ CBS News: Federal agents shoot woman in Chicago neighborhood after allegedly being rammed, boxed in by cars, DHS says
▪ KTLA: Newsom says Trump sending California National Guard after Oregon judge blocks move
Where & When
The president has no public events on his schedule, but the White House will hold a press briefing at 1 p.m.
The House is not in session on Monday.
The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. and is expected to hold votes at 5:30 p.m. related to ending the government shutdown.
Zoom In
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.). (AP Photo / Noah K. Murray)
POLLING UPDATE: It’s a big week in the only two places holding major statewide races in 2025 — with just one month left before voters go to the polls.
On Thursday, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) will debate Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in that state’s gubernatorial debate. The debate will air exclusively on Nexstar’s local Virginia stations. Nexstar also owns The Hill.
On Wednesday, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) will meet Republican Jack Ciattarelli for their second debate of the New Jersey gubernatorial contest.
The two Democrats are each favored in their respective races, with Spanberger generally seen as a bigger favorite than Sherrill. One thing to note in Virginia is whether the news about the offensive texts sent by Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones has any effects on the gubernatorial race.
Spanberger quickly expressed disgust with his texts and said she had spoken to Jones.
“I made clear to Jay that he must fully take responsibility for his words. What I have also made clear is that as a candidate — and as the next Governor of our Commonwealth, I will always condemn violent language in our politics,” Spanberger told NBC.
The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average shows both Spanberger and Sherrill in the lead, with Spanberger’s edge appearing more comfortable than Sherrill’s.
Spanberger has led Earle-Sears consistently in every poll that has come out, usually by at least mid-to-upper single digits but sometimes double digits. The average has narrowed somewhat recently, but she still leads on average by 6.4 points.
While New Jersey has generally been seen as a more reliably blue state, Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli seems more tentative. She has led in most polls by low-to-mid single digits, but a few surveys have found the race essentially tied.
That includes an Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey from late last month. Ciattarelli led by 1 point in an internal poll released shortly before that.
Sherrill leads by 4.8 points in the DDHQ average.
Ciattarelli is hoping to pull off an upset win over Sherrill as he leans into affordability issues and the high cost of living in the Garden State. New Jersey has been somewhat more of a purple state in governor’s races, and Republicans have been more optimistic about the state given the inroads the party made in the governor’s race four years ago and Trump made in the 2024 election.
In recent decades, the opposite party to the president has mostly won the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, potentially giving Democrats the historical advantage this year. But both races are still expected to be competitive, and New Jersey in particular seems increasingly like it will be.
— Jared Gans and Ian Swanson
▪ Politico: Democratic candidate’s ‘abhorrent’ texts threaten to shake up bellwether Virginia elections
▪ New York Post: NJ governor’s race spending to shatter records — with $72M spent already — as Ciattarelli gains on Sherrill
Elsewhere
STUDENT VISA CHAOS: A review of court documents by The Hill reveals more than 200 international students caught up in the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown are suing to get their visas reinstated.
Surina Venkat of The Hill reports that the students are locked in a difficult situation because the government is withholding visas even after judges ruled in their favor in past lawsuits.
Student Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) records allow students to stay in the United States after entering, but the visas are needed to freely leave and return to the U.S.
That means the students in question, who don’t have their visas, are stuck — no matter the family emergency that might rise.
“You can’t go home to see your mom who’s dying, you can’t go home for your sister’s wedding, you can’t go home for break, you can’t study abroad,” Charles Kuck, an attorney heading a lawsuit challenging visa terminations against the government, told Venkat.
Some students, who under SEVIS can legally study in the U.S., have left the country despite the visa issues. Lawyers told The Hill that some of those students are having problems returning to the U.S., and that several have seen their visa reapplications denied.
Immigration lawyers representing 217 students in total have filed two lawsuits against Secretary of State Marco Rubio challenging their visa terminations in the past two months.
The suits argue that the State Department’s revocation of students’ visas was unlawful. Lawyers plan to seek class-action status for the lawsuit filed in August.
In some cases, lawyers said, it appears students’ visas were terminated only because their SEVIS status was terminated — a move that was eventually blocked by courts.
The State Department said in August that it had revoked more than 6,000 visas since Trump entered office.
“We will not tolerate people here on visas who break our laws or support terrorism,” State Department principal deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement to The Hill. “That is not only common sense, it’s an essential component of our national security.”
“Unlike the past administration, the Trump Administration puts the safety of American citizens first,” he continued. “We will continue to revoke the visas of those who put the safety of our citizens at risk.”
Neither the Department of Homeland Security nor Immigration and Customs Enforcement responded to The Hill’s requests for comment. The White House referred The Hill to the State Department for comment.
▪ The New York Times: Groups File Suit Over Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
▪ ABC News: Passports, Visas should not be impacted by government shutdown
Opinion
Long overdue: EPA at last abandoning the endangerment finding, H. Sterling Burnett writes in The Hill.
Trump’s ‘compact’ with universities is just extortion, University of California, Berkeley law school dean Erwin Chemerinsky writes in The New York Times.
The Closer
And finally … Craft brewers are having problems: 21st Amendment Brewery, a huge craft brewer that got big in the 2010s, is now closing, the victim of fierce competition in the industry and changing patterns in the post-COVID era.
It’s a tough time for craft beer, The New York Times reported in a piece on Sunday that highlighted the San Francisco brewer’s challenges.
Craft beer sales were down 4 percent last year, and the issues have extended to local brewers in Washington, D.C.
Justin Cox, the founder of Atlas Brew Works, a big craft brew seller in Washington, D.C., is quoted in the Times’s story. He said “office workers and such” coming into D.C. “never really came back after COVID,” and Atlas has seen a slowdown in its wholesale side, which includes sales to local bars and restaurants.
But the makers of Ponzi IPA are expanding, Cox told the Times. He said higher margins on the restaurant are propping up the downturn on the beer production side.
