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Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter

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Table of Contents

Business & Economy

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The Big Story

BLS to issue first jobs report since Trump sacked chief

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday will deliver its first jobs report since President Trump fired its leader in response to disappointing employment data for July.

Economists are predicting more weakening in the labor market for August, which could prompt further reprisals and criticism from Trump.

“August’s employment report is likely to confirm that a marked slowdown in labor market conditions is underway,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a preview of the report.

Daco expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by just 40,000 in August, following the modest 73,000 jobs that were created in July. He sees the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3 percent, which would be the highest level since October 2021.

Financial media company Bankrate also sees unemployment rising to 4.3 percent, citing a consensus forecast of 80,000 jobs added to the economy for August. The Wall Street Journal is estimating a middling 75,000 jobs to have been added. The economy needs to add between 80,000 and 100,000 new jobs per month to keep up with population growth.

The July jobs report showed an average of just 35,000 jobs being added to the economy across May, June and July.

The Hill’s Tobias Burns goes further here.

Welcome to The Hill’s Business & Economy newsletter, I’m Aris Folley — covering the intersection of Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Essential Reads

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