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Real Clear Politics

Trump Stronger Than in His First Term, Dems Have Lost Ground

by The editor•29 July 2025•Posted inReal Clear Politics

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The Guardian

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Zohran dominates in new poll
With help from Amira McKeeCUOMO CONUNDRUM: Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani looks to be cruising toward victory, capturing 50 percent of the vote in a new general election poll of the mayor’s race paid for by his allies. In the five-way contest, Andrew Cuomo trailed him with 22 percent, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa came in third at 13 percent and Mayor Eric Adams captured 7 percent of the vote among likely voters. Attorney Jim Walden received 1 percent. “Our independent poll — the first in this cycle to be offered in four languages and to drill down into national origin and religious denomination — makes one thing clear: Black union households, young Jews, South Asians, East Asians, Latinos, and New Yorkers in every income bracket are all on the same Zohran Mamdani bus, and it’s headed in the direction of the Democratic Party’s future,” said Amit Singh Bagga, the principal of Public Progress Solutions and a veteran of federal, city, and state government. Bagga’s firm designed and analyzed the poll along with Adam Carlson’s Zenith Research. It was funded through private donations to Bagga, who advised Mamdani’s campaign during the primary on a variety of city government issues, and was fielded by Verasight. It quizzed 1,453 registered voters — 1,021 of whom were “likely” voters — and was conducted between July 16 and 24, concluding four days before a gunman walked into a Midtown Manhattan office building on Monday and killed four people, including one NYPD officer. Mamdani was celebrating his wedding in Uganda at the time. He’s scheduled to be back in the city Wednesday morning. According to the poll, even if the former governor could achieve his unlikely goal of neutralizing the rest of the field to face Mamdani one-on-one, the democratic socialist assemblymember is still up 52-40 in a head-to-head matchup with likely voters. But Mamdani’s head-to-head lead shrinks to just 3 points with registered voters. And it’d be worse for Adams — Mamdani clocks him 59-32 with likely voters and 55-32 with registered voters. Three months out from the Nov. 4 election, Mamdani is in a commanding position. Just 32 percent of likely voters say they would not consider voting for him, while Cuomo is at 60 percent and Adams at 68 percent. “With a majority of voters saying they wouldn't even consider voting for Cuomo, Adams' net favorability being lower than Trump's, and Sliwa mired in the low teens, it's hard to see how anyone can put a serious scare into Mamdani in a split field,” Carlson said in a statement. The survey is the first significant public poll after the ex-governor announced he’d mount a campaign after losing the primary. Respondents were surveyed via a hybrid online panel, the firms said. The poll had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error. Cuomo took issue with the poll’s model assumption that Mamdani’s campaign would boost turnout among younger and college-educated voters as it did in the primary. “The only thing that I think is material for accuracy is what the poll says about the registered voters,” Cuomo told Playbook. “As we learned in the primary, when you’re assuming turnout levels, there are many variables. In the primary, they underestimated the number of young people. You have to make another set of assumptions on the general. Some people will assume you’re going to see a young voter surge. Some people believe you’re going to see an anti-socialist surge. Some people think you’re going to see a pro-Israel surge. So who knows?” Mamdani still holds a 16-point lead over Cuomo among registered voters, according to the poll. Mamdani gets 42 percent in a five-way race, followed by Cuomo at 26, Sliwa at 12, Adams at 7 and Walden at 1. — Jeff Coltin & Jason BeefermanHEASTIE WILL VOTE DEMOCRAT (WE ASSUME): Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie implied he is likely to vote for Mamdani — but continues to avoid explicitly saying the democratic socialist will earn a spot on his ballot. “Do we ask people who they vote for?” Heastie quipped when a reporter asked him this afternoon who he would vote for in the general election. “Listen, I'm a Democrat, and I support Democrats. I've never voted for someone that’s not a Democrat.” The speaker was in Schenectady today for a visit to a local musical theater in need of state investment. When asked if his record of voting strictly along the Democratic line could change for the upcoming mayoral election, Heastie chuckled. After a brief silence, his press aide cut in to solicit other questions from reporters. The speaker did say he is in frequent contact with the mayoral nominee. “Zohran and I have had loads of communications,” Heastie said. “What people have to understand is that when I'm the speaker of [a] body, I have to communicate concerns of the body, and Zohran and I have communicated what I think he needs to do to get me there.” — Jason Beeferman GUN CONTROL PLEAS: New York Democrats pleaded for Congress to approve tighter gun control laws in the wake of a Midtown shooting that left six people dead — including an NYPD officer. There’s little chance any measures will pass given Republicans holding all levers of power in Washington. Yet Gov. Kathy Hochul and Heastie on Tuesday urged national action — a tacit acknowledgement that the state’s comparatively strict gun laws can’t stop someone obtaining a weapon in another state. The alleged shooter reportedly traveled to New York from Nevada. “We need a national awakening here. People need to be talking about this once again and it shouldn't just happen in the wake of a tragedy like this. It should be an ongoing conversation where we force the Republicans to understand lives could be saved if we only do what's smart and common sense,” Hochul told CNN. The governor pushed through a package of gun law changes after the U.S. Supreme Court determined New York’s concealed carry measure was unconstitutional. In the wake of a Buffalo mass shooting in 2022, Hochul won approval of tighter restrictions on gun ownership, including raising the age to buy a firearm from 18 to 21. Heastie echoed Hochul’s sentiment with reporters in Schenectady. “When is this country going to wake up on allowing citizens to have these military-style weapons?” he said. “No other industrial nation in this world allows the citizens to do it.” — Nick Reisman AMEND TO THAT: Heastie is ready to change New York’s redistricting laws as red states move this year to redraw their House lines. “At this point we should look to try to see what we can do to counteract Republican actions,” Heastie told reporters today. There are very few options for New York Democrats to impact next year’s election, though, even as Hochul last week signaled she is open to making changes to the state’s House lines. One potential long-term response is a constitutional amendment — a multi-year effort that ends with a voter referendum — that would allow New York to redistrict in the middle of the decade if another state undertakes the process. Heastie said he is open to passing the measure, which was introduced by state Sen. Mike Gianaris and Assemblymember Micah Lasher, POLITICO first reported on Monday. “It doesn’t have to be done now; it can be done in the following year,” he added. — Nick ReismanDELGADO WANTS SPECIAL SESSION: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, a gubernatorial primary candidate, is calling for the state Legislature to hold a special session to protect against incoming federal cuts — but Heastie indicated an early return to Albany for lawmakers is unlikely. Delgado is slated to appear with Assemblymembers George Alvarez, Amanda Septimo, Phara Souffrant Forrest and Claire Valdez on Thursday in Manhattan to make a public plea for a special session. It’s a sign of support from the group of lefty lawmakers even as the vast majority of Democratic lawmakers are leery of backing the lieutenant governor over Hochul. The event is organized by Citizen Action, VOCAL-NY, Make the Road and other left-leaning advocacy groups. Still, Heastie indicated this afternoon a special session is unlikely. “We haven't had any discussions about that,” he said. While it’s early, Heastie said his “biggest priority” for the upcoming legislative session will be to “limit as best we can the damage that Republicans have done to us that they keep trying to sugarcoat.” — Jason Beeferman— SINCE 2000: The mass shooting in a Midtown building Monday night was New York’s deadliest shooting in 25 years. (New York Times) — CONTESTED BALLOTS: The New York City Board of Elections is set to certify the results of a GOP primary for a Brooklyn City Council seat Tuesday amid allegations of voter fraud. (New York Daily News) — ‘YOU AND YOUR EGO’: Cuomo slammed Adams as a “spoiler” driven by his own ego while speaking with reporters at the Columbian Day Parade. (New York Post) — MTA OUTAGE: A slew of subway lines were delayed and suspended today as a power outage wreaked havoc on the system. (Gothamist) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here. NOTE: This article has been updated to accurately reflect the elected officials planning to attend Thursday’s rally with Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. POLITICO was informed following publication that Sen. Kristen Gonzalez did not plan to attend. In addition, an earlier version of this newsletter misstated the subject of Bagga's advising for Mamdani. He advised on city government issues.
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