Iran’s secretive Fordow nuclear site, hidden in a mountain south of the country’s capital, has become a focal point in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, as the U.S. weighs stepping in to help Israel topple Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
The Fordow site, formally known in the international community as the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and in Iran as the Shahid Ali Mohammadi Nuclear Facility, is located under more than 300 feet of rock, necessitating the use of heavy weaponry to strike it.
The U.S. has the capability to deploy massive bombs known as bunker busters to hit the facility, but Israel does not.
What Iran has at Fordow
The U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) last verified Fordow’s enrichment capabilities on May 28, according to its most recent report on Iran’s nuclear activities.
An analysis from the independent Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists based on the IAEA report concluded that Iran has enough centrifuges and uranium hexafluoride gas at the site to produce several nuclear weapons.
“They could probably produce enough weapon-grade (90 percent) enriched uranium for one nuclear weapon within five to six days,” the Bulletin reported.
The Bulletin’s analysis noted that Fordow’s underground location means “it could — in theory — continue to operate even after other nuclear facilities in the country have been destroyed, with its material then fueling nuclear weapons to be produced clandestinely.”
“Fordow is, therefore, a crucially important place if one attempts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,” the Bulletin’s analysts wrote. “If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran’s nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.”
History of Fordow
Former President Obama publicly revealed the existence of the Fordow facility in September 2009.
“It was designed and built over the past several years in direct violation of resolutions from the Security Council and from the IAEA,” Obama said at the time, noting that “the size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.”
Iran had disclosed its above-ground Natanz enrichment site, but Fordow’s existence was a secret.
“Iran’s decision to build yet another nuclear facility without notifying the IAEA represents a direct challenge to the basic compact at the center of the nonproliferation regime,” Obama said.
The IAEA was granted daily access upon request to monitor the Fordow enrichment facility under the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but President Trump upended the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 during his first administration, and Tehran gradually moved away from allowing strict international oversight.
Iran removed all of the agency’s surveillance and monitoring equipment at Fordow in 2022.
What’s next?
Trump’s second administration was attempting to hash out a new nuclear agreement with Iran that would prevent it from developing a weapon, but Israel’s surprise strikes against Iran last week stopped the ongoing negotiations.
Experts also question what Iran would do if Fordow isn’t demolished.
“A deal could be constructed that would permit inspectors of the IAEA access to the site, just as was the case until June 13. But Israel’s attack has most probably changed Iranian strategic calculus fundamentally,” the Bulletin’s analysts wrote.
“Even if there were to be a deal in which Fordow remained in existence as a uranium enrichment site, the risk of an Iranian breakout scenario to produce nuclear weapons is probably greater today than it was a week ago: Iran has been shown that its conventional military cannot deter an Israeli attack, and therefore it is far likelier to have difficulty restocking its missile and other military forces (especially air defense) than Israel will.”