Virginia voters will head to the polls on Tuesday to choose a replacement for the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) in the special election for the commonwealth’s 11th Congressional District.
The Democratic candidate, James Walkinshaw, was Connolly’s chief of staff as well as a Fairfax County supervisor. He is facing off against Republican Stewart Whitson, an Army veteran and former FBI special agent.
The seat was vacated in May after Connolly died following a battle with cancer. Here’s what to know about Tuesday’s special election:
Walkinshaw is the heavy favorite
Walkinshaw is considered the hands-on favorite to win the seat. The deep-blue district is reflective of the rest of Virginia’s suburbs of Washington, D.C., which tend to lean Democratic. The district makes up most of Fairfax County, including the entire city of Fairfax.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report places the district firmly in the Democratic category. Connolly won reelection in the district by more than 30 points in November, while former Vice President Kamala Harris and incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) won it by roughly the same margin in their respective races.
Walkinshaw has been a clear leader in the fundraising race, bringing in roughly $1.1 million. Whitson, by comparison, has raised around $225,000.
The race garnered some attention in June after social media accounts for Connolly urged supporters to vote for Walkinshaw in the special Democratic primary, which took place after the congressman’s death.
Prior to his death, Connolly had represented the district since 2009. Walkinshaw served as Connolly’s chief of staff from 2009 to 2019. He was elected to the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors in 2019.
Walkinshaw launched his bid for Connolly’s seat in May after his former boss announced he would not be seeking reelection in 2026.
In his campaign announcement, Walkinshaw said the U.S. is in a “five-fire alarm moment” for democracy and pledged to help Virginia Democrats running up and down the ballot in this year’s off-year elections.
“There is no candidate who can replace Gerry Connolly. But I was by his side during the toughest fights, including during Trump’s first term, and I’m ready to fight for Fairfax on day one,” Walkinshaw said.
Whitson’s campaign has zeroed in on cultural issues that other Virginia Republicans have focused on in recent weeks, including abortion and transgender rights.
The federal Department of Education announced last month that the Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Loudoun County and Prince William County school boards were at risk of losing their federal funding after rejecting an agreement with the department on resolving investigations into transgender student policies.
“The problem in our district is that we have single party control at the local school board and every elected official across the district,” Whitson told “Fox & Friends” on Monday. “We need to have a representative that comes from the other side, who can push back on that.”
Race could gauge Democratic enthusiasm
Tuesday’s special election will take place just two months before Virginia’s highly anticipated gubernatorial and House of Delegate races.
The environment in the commonwealth, particularly outside of Washington, is highly favorable for Democrats. The district has long had a blue lean, but the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts to the federal workforce have greatly impacted Virginia. Democrats believe the issue will be especially animating for their voters, driving turnout during a special election.
Walkinshaw, as well as gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger, have leaned into the issue.
“I’m running for Congress because our community is under attack by the Trump administration,” Walkinshaw said at a debate against Whitson in July. “The reckless, indiscriminate DOGE job cuts are impacting our friends and neighbors every day.”
Other special elections this year have reflected enthusiasm from the Democratic base, leading to victories. Democrats have won two state Senate elections in Iowa, as well as one in Pennsylvania. Earlier this year in Virginia, Democrats came out on top in two special state Legislature elections.
However, in an interview on Monday, Whitson said he believed Republicans have an opportunity to take back the seat, pointing to lower turnout.
“You’ll have record low turnout. We have another election in November, and so this biggest challenge is which side can get the most folks on their side energized and actually out to the polls,” Whitson told “Fox & Friends.”
Turnout will likely be lower than most elections, but data shows it has been up in the district in recent years.
According to The Associated Press, turnout for registered voters in the district was 52 percent in 2022, while it was up to 71 percent in last year’s presidential election.
Early voting kicked off in the district in July and wrapped on Saturday. According to The Associated Press, as of last Wednesday, more than 48,000 ballots were cast before Election Day. There are roughly 568,000 registered voters in the district.
Ballots sent in prior to Election Day in 2022 made up 34 percent of the total votes cast, and 57 percent of the total votes cast in 2024, according to The Associated Press.
A Democratic win would narrow GOP’s majority
Arguably the biggest national takeaway from tomorrow’s special election will be how it ultimately impacts the margins in the House. Connolly’s seat has been vacant since May, leaving Republicans with a 219-212 majority in the lower chamber. Additionally, there are two other Democratic vacancies in the House and one Republican vacancy.
The vacancies have likely helped Republicans during crucial votes this year, including the vote to pass the GOP spending megabill, also known as President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” in May. The legislation passed by one vote.
“It’s the first opportunity voters in the country will have to express their views on that so-called Big Beautiful Bill, so I think a strong turnout and a strong margin will send a powerful message across the country that Virginians are rejecting the Trump administration’s policies and approach,” Walkinshaw told Newsweek in an interview published Monday.
A Walkinshaw victory would make the Republican majority narrower, giving Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) a little less breathing room.
“This is a Democrat stronghold,” Whitson told Fox News on Monday. “And so a big victory here sends a loud and powerful message across the country that we’re fed up.”
