Morning Report is The Hill’s a.m. newsletter. Subscribe here.
In today’s issue:
▪ White House applies shutdown pressure
▪ Democrats call for perseverance
▪ Supreme Court to review Cook firing
▪ Trump signs Qatar protection order
Republicans appear set on ratcheting up the pain on Democrats in a push to force them to bend and back a bill to reopen the government.
The administration signaled Wednesday it would follow through on its threat, first issued last week, to lay off federal workers during a shutdown.
White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell Vought told House Republicans that federal layoffs would come in the next day or two. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that layoffs are “imminent.”
A government shutdown regularly causes many federal employees deemed nonessential to be furloughed and other essential employees to work without pay until funding resumes, but the administration has shown an interest in permanently laying off some nonessential workers.
The White House has offered mixed messages on the firings, with Trump earlier in the week suggesting they could increase the pain on Democrats.
“We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them. Like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like,” he said.
Vice President Vance on Wednesday portrayed the looming layoffs as not what the administration wants but what it feels is necessary.
“We’re not targeting federal agencies based on politics, we’re targeting the people’s government so that as much as possible of the essential services can continue to function,” he said at a White House press conference.
“Let’s be honest. If this thing drags on for another few days or, God forbid, another few weeks, we are going to have to lay people off,” he added.
The warnings about possible layoffs came after the OMB issued its memo last week, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) brushed off the threat.
They called it a scare tactic in the funding fight and expressed confidence that any mass personnel cuts would be blocked in court or reversed, as the administration has done in hiring back some laid-off workers.
But in many cases, the courts have at least temporarily allowed the administration’s firings to continue, suggesting the judiciary may not provide the relief many Democrats are hoping to see.
Some more moderate Democrats like Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) expressed interest in finding a way to avoid a shutdown and the promised layoffs ahead of Tuesday night’s deadline, though almost all Senate Democrats ultimately voted against the House-passed continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded at current levels through Nov. 21.
The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports that senators expect the shutdown to drag on at least until the middle of next week, or perhaps longer, as Senate Democrats say they’re prepared to oppose the GOP-backed CR as it keeps coming up for a vote.
The Senate will not vote on the CR on Thursday because of the Yom Kippur holiday, but another vote is expected on Friday. Regular votes are likely to be held going forward to force Democrats to keep going on the record about maintaining their demands for extending Affordable Care Act enhanced premium tax credits or quickly reopening the government.
Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Angus King (I-Maine) notably defected to vote for the CR on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday when it came up for another vote.
And those votes were eye-opening for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who is now trying to ramp up pressure on more Democrats to break off and back the CR, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports.
Five additional Democratic votes would be needed in the Senate to reach the 60-vote threshold to overcome the filibuster. The GOP holds a 53-seat majority, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has voted against the CR.
In the meantime, the administration is embracing the shutdown as a vulnerability for Democrats and an opportunity to slash government jobs and roll back programs.
The administration also may seek to take steps outside the public’s radar. It announced on Wednesday that it’s pausing about $18 million in federal funding for infrastructure projects in New York City, citing concerns about diversity, equity and inclusion policies.
The White House said it’s reviewing whether any practices violate race- or sex-based contracting requirements, but the review may take longer than expected because many workers are furloughed.
While the administration has shown a willingness to place restrictions on federal funding based on state and local policies it disagrees with, the timing illustrates another method by which Trump can exercise power while the government is shut down.
▪ The Hill: Democratic leaders hold firm in face of mass firing threat: “Cruelty is the point.”
▪ The Associated Press: Democrats embrace shutdown fight in rare moment of unity against Trump.
▪ ABC: Accusations fly over who is responsible for the shutdown.
The effects of the shutdown are already being felt.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 750,000 employees are being furloughed while the shutdown continues, which will affect services at a wide range of agencies.
National parks, which often close during shutdowns, will generally remain accessible to visitors, but The Hill’s Rachel Frazin reports that the furloughing of almost two-thirds of their staff will present significant challenges, including maintenance and public safety issues.
The Hill’s Joseph Choi reports that critical health programs will operate during the shutdown, but many services will pause or be significantly less efficient given the furloughs.
Transportation Security Administration workers and air traffic controllers are deemed essential so they’re still working but without pay. Delays could quickly mount as the shutdown goes on, given the number of absences and sick days that workers take has increased during past shutdowns.
The Smithsonian Institution said its museums, research centers and the National Zoo will remain open at least until Monday. But keeping them open could become increasingly difficult if the shutdown extends past a week.
▪ The New York Times: How the shutdown is affecting federal services, workers.
▪ The Hill: “FAFSA forms, launched ahead of shutdown, could be in position for ‘record high’ season.”
▪ The Hill: White House dismisses majority of National Council on the Humanities.
Smart Take with Blake Burman
As the government shutdown now enters its second day, one of the questions going forward will be just how deep government layoffs will go. “If this thing drags on for another few days or God forbid another few weeks, we are going to have to lay people off. We’re going to have to save money in some places so that essential services don’t get turned off in other places,” Vance told reporters in a rare appearance in the White House briefing room.
As this conversation around layoffs takes place, we received another warning sign of a shaky labor market outside of the government. The payroll firm ADP said private employers reported a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September and revised the August number to –3,000. (Federal data is expected to be delayed due to the shutdown.)
This much we know: There are both talks of government layoffs and real layoffs occurring in the private sector. We could be witnessing a cracking labor market.
Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.
3 Things to Know Today
1. Trump received his lowest approval rating yet in a Marquette Law School poll, falling 14 points underwater with 43 percent approving of his job performance compared to 57 percent who dissapprove.
2. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents will attend the Super Bowl in February, where Bad Bunny is set to headline the halftime show, Department of Homeland Security adviser Corey Lewandowski said.
3. A civilian employee with the Navy admitted Wednesday to falsely reporting a shooting at a base in New Jersey the day before.
Leading the Day
SHUTDOWN POLITICS: Democratic operatives are calling on members of their party to hold the line despite some pressure to cave and vote to reopen the government.
The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that operatives felt bullish that the shutdown won’t have negative ramifications for them for next year’s midterm elections and could potentially help.
“This is a concise argument that we can take back to voters and say, look, here’s the evidence. You decide,” one strategist told Parnes.
Early polling data has been mixed on which side the public will blame for the shutdown. A New York Times/Siena poll showed two-thirds of respondents said Democrats shouldn’t shut down the government if Republicans don’t agree to their demands, including almost 60 percent of independents and more than 40 percent of Democrats.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showed more respondents would blame Republicans for a shutdown, while almost a third would blame both sides equally.
They suggest the public isn’t clearly putting the blame on one side, a possible argument against concerns of the shutdown being much of a vulnerability for Democrats or Republicans.
Strategists told Parnes that Democrats shouldn’t fold as Schumer did in March the last time the government was about to run out of money. Schumer greatly frustrated many Democrats for his willingness to vote for the GOP stopgap at the time.
One consistency in polling has been Democrats wanting to see their party leaders fight back against the Trump administration and show they won’t surrender so easily in the face of the White House’s actions.
“I think the biggest risk for Democrats is being risk-averse,” another strategist said. “At some point, Democrats probably will have to make a deal, but they have to get caught fighting and they need to deliver something to show.”
▪ USA Today: Polls show nation divided on shutdown blame.
INSULTS & ATTACKS FLY: Politics can often get intense in times of such fierce polarization, but insults and personal attacks between Republicans and Democrats have entered new terrain in recent days.
Trump’s artificial intelligence-generated video of Schumer and Jeffries has drawn the most attention this week. The president doubled down Tuesday, posting a second video despite accusations from Democrats of racism.
In both videos, Jeffries is depicted wearing a sombrero while mariachi music plays in the background. The imagery has since been adopted by other Republicans to attack Democrats.
The attack centers on a misleading message accusing Democrats of demanding free health care for immigrants in the U.S. illegally in return for their support for the GOP’s federal funding bill.
After Vance pledged “the sombrero memes will stop” if Democrats vote to reopen the government, Jeffries hit back with his own video adopting a meme that portrays the vice president with exaggerated baby fat.
Meanwhile, Schumer laid the blame for the shutdown on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), calling him the “real bad guy” in the situation.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who has taken to imitating Trump recently on social media with posts that read similarly to ones made by the president, mocked Trump’s weight after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he didn’t want to see “fat generals” in the military anymore.
“I guess the Commander in Chief needs to go!” Newsom wrote on social media.
Newsom also recently labeled Vance a “dips—” while rejecting a claim the vice president made about health care spending for migrants.
Vance used the same word in a heated back-and-forth with “Pod Save America” co-host Jon Favreau over last week’s shooting at an ICE facility in Dallas.
SPANBERGER LEADS: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) leads Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by 10 points in the Virginia gubernatorial race with just more than a month before the election.
A survey from The Hill and Emerson College Polling found Spanberger leading with 52 percent support to Earle-Sears’s 42 percent, with 6 percent of respondents undecided. Spanberger has a larger lead among those who have already cast their votes a week into early voting, up 22 points, 60 percent to 38 percent.
Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Spanberger has improved her margin among independents, men and younger voters.
The results add to the picture being painted of Spanberger consistently leading in the race. She has led in every poll released from the race and leads Earle-Sears by 7 points in the Decision Desk HQ polling average.
The results of the state’s gubernatorial race, along with the one in New Jersey, will be viewed as key indicators of each party’s strengths ahead of next year’s consequential midterm elections.
▪ CNN: Shutdown shakes up politics in Virginia, home to many federal workers.
▪ WSET: Spanberger outspending Earle-Sears in governor race.
When and Where
The president receives his daily intelligence brief at 11 a.m. He has no public events scheduled.
The Senate willmeet at noon but no votes are scheduled for Yom Kippur.
The House willnot convene Thursday.
Zoom In
COOK IN COURT: The Supreme Court decided to take up Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve board of governors member Lisa Cook, setting up potentially a final battle as Trump seeks to exert greater influence over the agency.
The court agreed to hear the case in January in a short order without any noted dissents. It pauses Trump’s order and allows Cook to remain in her role at least until the court issues its decision.
The Trump administration filed an emergency appeal to request that the court allow Cook to be ousted after lower courts rebuffed the effort. Emergency appeals usually are resolved within weeks without oral arguments, but The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld note that this is the second time that the court has chosen to hear arguments related to an emergency appeal during Trump’s second term.
The first one was the legal battle over Trump’s attempt to restrict birthright citizenship, which resulted in the court ruling in a 6-3 decision that judges couldn’t issue universal injunctions blocking the policy.
Arguments around Cook’s firing will be heard weeks after the court hears arguments related to Trump’s firing of Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter. The court in a split decision approved Trump’s firing of Slaughter for now and will revisit its 90-year-old precedent protecting independent agency leaders from being fired at will.
Trump has taken distinct interest in influencing the Fed, repeatedly criticizing Chair Jerome Powell over his hesitance to back lowering interest rates. He also appointed a close ally who served as his top economist, Stephen Miran, to fill a vacant spot on the Fed’s board.
Miran has called for lowering interest rates as Trump has, and he was the only member of the board to vote for a half-point drop in rates at the board’s meeting last month rather than the quarter-point cut the other governors backed.
▪ Bloomberg: Where Trump’s effort to fire Cook stands now.
CUOMO AI AD: Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) became one of the most high-profile candidates yet to use AI for an ad when he rolled out his first general election spot for the New York City mayoral race.
The ad depicts him performing various jobs as he says “I could pretend to do a lot of jobs, but I know what I know, and I know what I don’t know. And I do know how to make government work.”
It includes a disclaimer during the AI-generated portions that states AI was used to create it.
The ad’s release comes as candidates have increasingly used AI for their promotional materials and gone around the traditional method of how candidates produce ads for themselves.
Trump used AI-generated content throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, posting images that depict him as a pope and as a Jedi from “Star Wars.”
Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor, slammed Cuomo’s use of AI.
“In a city of world-class artists and production crew hunting for the next gig, Andrew Cuomo made a TV ad the same way he wrote his housing policy: with AI,” he wrote on the social platform X. “Then again, maybe a fake Cuomo is better than the real one?”
Mamdani also released his first general election ad on Tuesday, leaning into his message of addressing the high cost of living. (He later released a “Bachelor”-themed ad too.)
The Democratic nominee is the frontrunner for mayor in a three-person race with Cuomo, who is running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
▪ NBC News: Mamdani, Cuomo escalate attacks after Eric Adams exits race.
Elsewhere
QATAR PROTECTION: Trump has signed an executive order vowing to protect the Middle Eastern country Qatar after an Israeli strike that killed six people last month.
The order states that the U.S. will consider “any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.” It states that the U.S. would take “diplomatic, economic, and if necessary, military” action to defend the countries’ interests and restore peace and stability.
Israel’s strike in Doha targeted senior Hamas leaders, killing five of the militant group’s members and a Qatari internal security force member. It was unable to eliminate Hamas’s top leaders there.
Trump said at the time that he wasn’t pleased with the strike occurring, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the Qatari prime minister to apologize for the strike while he visited Trump at the White House. Netanyahu also promised a strike on Qatari territory wouldn’t happen again.
The apology and Trump’s order are designed to smooth over relations with Qatar, which has been a key facilitator in negotiations between Israel and Hamas to try to reach a ceasefire in the war in Gaza. Qatar is also a critical U.S. ally in the region.
▪ CNN: “Why Trump’s pledge to defend Qatar is so extraordinary.”
▪ Axios: How Israel’s attack inadvertently launched Trump’s peace plan.
Opinion
With Eric Adams gone, New York politics is up in the air, writes former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.) in The Hill
Is James Talarico the answer to Democratic prayers? writes New York Times opinion columnist Michelle Goldberg
The Closer
And finally … Legendary conservationist Jane Goodall died on Wednesday at the age of 91, ending a lifelong career of research and environmental advocacy.
Goodall became well known for her groundbreaking research on chimpanzees in which she documented their behavior and use of tools in Africa in the 1960s. The Associated Press reported that it changed both how humans view their closest biological relative and the emotional complexity of all animals.
The Jane Goodall Institute stated that she died from natural causes while in California on a speaking tour. The institute called her a “tireless advocate for the protection and restoration of our natural world.”
