We have all had too much practice in this still-young century in determining what should and should not be said in the wake of political violence. We’re getting too good at this.
One of the most popular and least objectionable responses has been to say that Americans need to “lower the temperature” in our political discourse. This is, of course, far better than the nakedly partisan calls for retribution and vengeance. Whether those people are sickened by grief and rage into a kind of temporary insanity, genuine lunatics, hustlers looking to milk a little more engagement or some combination of the three doesn’t really matter. The difference between stoking a civil war and pretending to stoke one is ultimately immaterial. The harm is the same, whatever the intention.
So, yes, lowering the temperature is definitely an improvement over turning up the heat. It’s also better than the facile, self-serving efforts to pretend that this is a one-sided problem. Listening to and watching people hurling the names of atrocities back and forth at each other like rhetorical grenades — “Oh yeah, well what about …” — reminds us of our species’ powerful gifts of self-deception.
It is understandable that we would like for political violence to be a problem of the right or a problem of the left rather than what it is: a problem of human nature. Murder is no more the province of one of our political parties than any other violations of the Ten Commandments. We would all like to think that our tribe is the noblest one, but human frailty is apolitical. Bipartisanship may be a virtue, but it is vice that really reaches across the aisle.
“Unfortunately the truth about atrocities is far worse than that they are lied about and made into propaganda,” George Orwell wrote. “The truth is that they happen.”
By all means, then, it is good to tell people to “bring down the temperature” rather than pretending that political violence is a one-sided problem. But it is still a pretty empty sentiment.
For a couple of seasons, the NFL had the words “end racism” painted into the backs of its endzones. Did the NFL suppose that an actually racist person — an American who understood their own actions and beliefs to be rooted in race hatred — was going to be watching the Packers and the Dolphins and say, “Hey, wait a minute … I’ve been thinking about white supremacy all wrong. Honey, throw my robe and hood away.”
The person who is raising the rhetorical temperature probably doesn’t think she or he is doing anything of the kind, or if they do know, they believe it is justified. Meanwhile, the decent people who are likely to pay attention to calls for calm and cool aren’t the ones raising the temperature anyway. Like racists, the hot heads who do the most widespread harm are the ones who don’t know they’re doing it.
We get the word “bromide” for such platitudes as these from the chemical family of bromine salts, which became popular sedatives in the late 1800s, before scientists discovered their toxic qualities. A rhetorical bromide is a little like that. It can calm the user temporarily but may cause lasting damage.
So let me instead offer a disclosure against my own self-interest: It doesn’t matter that much which party wins the midterm elections next year.
Yes, I want you to subscribe to this note and hang on my every word about the big battle for control of Congress next year. My children and their college funds will thank you for watching every episode of “The Hill Sunday,” downloading every podcast, retweeting every tweet. Smash that “like” button, folks.
But in truth, I would be obsessively following the current election cycle even if it wasn’t my vocation. I am, and have always been, a political obsessive. This history, demography, rhetoric and artful practice of politics has been my fascination since I was a very odd little boy. I can’t tell you why it interests me so much any more than I can tell you why I like toffee ice cream or George Jones records. I just do.
But I don’t care very much at all which party wins the elections I cover. That’s gotten easier as both of our once-great parties have faltered, but even more so as I have gotten older and taken a broader view of history.
Every four years, we are told that this is the most important election in history, which is a lot of errant nonsense. The most important election in the American system is always the next election. The fact that we will have another contest after the current one is an essential promise of the Constitution. Come pandemic, or earthquake, or civil war, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in every fourth November is a presidential election. Similarly, the promise that we get to choose new members of Congress every other year is a safeguard against tyranny.
But when we are told that the next election could be the last election or that our democracy won’t survive a victory by the party of these 65 million Americans or these 65 million Americans, we open the door to destructive violence.
American democracy is iterative. We don’t do anything all at once and frequently backtrack on the courses we do undertake. It’s a kind of dead reckoning navigation. Our leaders set out on a course for two years, and then get another sounding from the electorate. A new direction in hand, they set off again. It’s a zig-zagging way of governance that can be frustratingly slow, but it’s worth it to have a safeguard against plowing the whole ship of state into the rocks.
Politicians, though, aren’t going to tell their potential voters, “Hey, we hope you back us this time, but it’s cool if not. We’ll check back next time.” It is in their interests for the sake of contributions and electoral engagement for you to believe that we have arrived, as populists from Teddy Roosevelt on down have told us, at the battle of Armageddon.
This kind of apocalypticism isn’t just effective because it scares people, but also because it imbues their lives with purpose. They’re not just watching a video or making a $5 donation with a click, they’re fighting for the very existence of the nation. It’s not just the next election, it could be the last one.
Here, we reject that kind of thinking entirely. If the fate of the nation hinges on the outcome of the next election, then the nation is already lost. If which of the two parties — which agree on about 80 percent of things — controls Congress is the question on which the future of the republic hangs, then the republic has no future.
Which party wins the 2026 election will matter a great deal in how some policies are set and how certain disputes are resolved, but in our long, messy and glorious history, it will just be another little zig or zag in a long voyage. But when we buy into the rhetoric that says otherwise, not only are we undermining the republic, we are sustaining an atmosphere in which political violence makes too much sense.
If you want to lower the temperature, start by lowering the stakes.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 41.4 percent
Average Disapproval: 54 percent
Net Score: -12.6
Change from last week: No change
Change from one month ago: ↓2.4 points
[Average includes: Reuters/Ipsos 42 percent approve – 56 percent disapprove; Emerson College 45 percent approve – 47 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac University 37 percent approve – 55 percent disapprove; AP/NORC 45 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove; American Research Group 38 percent approve – 59 percent disapprove]
Republicans show biggest jump in support for socialism
Would you say you have a positive image of socialism?
Now 2019
Republicans 14 percent; 9 percent
Democrats 66 percent; 65 percent
Independents 38 percent; 41 percent
[Gallup survey of 1,094 adults, Aug. 1-20]
ON THE SIDE: ‘THE WORST AIR DISASTER YOU’VE NEVER HEARD OF’
Longreads: ”It would be the greatest day in the history of Akron, Ohio. Forget the opening of the Ohio and Erie Canal, which allowed the budding metropolis to become an industrial center. No, the Rubber City—so-called because of the factories established there by Goodrich, Firestone, General Tire, and Goodyear—had never seen anything like this. Akron means “high” in Greek, and now, fittingly, the future was up in the sky. Before the sun rose on August 8, 1931, people poured into the streets. Lloyd Weil, Akron’s mayor, had declared a holiday, freeing from their desks and assembly lines those workers lucky enough to have jobs during the depths of the Great Depression. Cars converged from all directions, carrying people from Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Erie, Toledo, and farther afield. Many navigated epic traffic jams en route to their destination: the Goodyear-Zeppelin Airdock, where the day’s action would take place.”
PRIME CUTS
Top pollster says Cuomo can hold his own one-on-one with Mamdani: The New York Times: “If Andrew Cuomo gets a one-on-one race for New York mayor against Zohran Mamdani, would he have any chance of winning? He would have a real shot, according to this morning’s New York Times/Siena poll of New York City. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mr. Mamdani leads Mr. Cuomo by four percentage points, 48 to 44, among likely voters. The race isn’t likely to be so close if Curtis Sliwa, the Republican, and Mayor Eric Adams, running as an independent, remain candidates despite President Trump’s effort to persuade them to exit the race. With all the candidates in the running, Mr. Mamdani holds nearly a two-to-one lead, 46 percent to 24 percent, over Mr. Cuomo. A head-to-head matchup between Mr. Adams and Mr. Mamdani wouldn’t be much closer, with Mr. Mamdani leading, 55 to 36.”
Earle-Sears closes gap, but still trails widely with less than a month to go: WTKR: “A new poll conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University’s Wilder School reveals that the governor’s race is becoming more competitive as Election Day approaches, now two months away. … In the governor’s race, Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger still leads Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by nine percentage points in a 49% to 40% split. The Republican candidate gained three percentage points while Spanberger’s polling results were unchanged, this is in comparison to the last Commonwealth Poll, which was conducted in June. Previously, Earle-Sears had trailed Spanberger by a 12-point margin of 49% to 37%. … These races have tightened across the board. So, winning over independent voters would be quite the prize for either party, as VCU’s poll reported that 48% of independents remain undecided.”
Crystal Ball moves race from ‘lean’ to ‘likely’ Dem win: The Hill:“Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecaster, moved its rating of Virginia’s gubernatorial race from ‘lean Democratic’ to ‘likely Democratic.’”
Another special election, another Dem blowout: The Downballot: “Democrats won a special election for a vacant House seat in Northern Virginia in a landslide on Tuesday night, while Boston’s mayor turned in a similar dominant showing—though she’ll have to face off against the same opponent once again in November. In Virginia’s 11th District in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, Democrat James Walkinshaw crushed Republican Stewart Whitson by a 75-25 margin. His showing amounted to a 16-point overperformance compared to Kamala Harris’ win in the district last year. Walkinshaw will reclaim the seat held by the late Rep. Gerry Connolly—his one-time boss—until his death following a battle with esophageal cancer earlier this year. Once he’s sworn in, Democrats will have 213 members seated in the House, versus 219 for the GOP. Three other seats are still vacant, two previously held by Democrats and one by Republicans.”
Dems delight at news that Maine governor staffing up for Collins bid: Politico: “Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills is interviewing staff for a potential Senate bid, a person familiar with the process confirmed on Wednesday. The news was first reported by Punchbowl. The interviews come as Mills is “seriously considering” a run against longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins and will have a decision by November, according to local news reports. Maine is a top offensive target for Senate Democrats this cycle, the only one in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in November. … Mills, who is 77 and term-limited as governor, would join a growing Democratic primary field. So far, oyster farmer Graham Platner, Maine Beer Company owner Dan Kleban and former chief of staff to Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Jordan Wood, have already entered the race. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has worked to recruit Mills in the race, citing her track record of winning statewide.”
Trump looks to clear field for Ernst replacement: The Hill: “President Trump on Friday endorsed GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson (Iowa) for retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (Iowa) seat. … The president’s endorsement came hours after Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said he was backing the three-term Iowa lawmaker, who announced her bid the same day Ernst said she would not be seeking reelection. … Hinson’s campaign already has $2.8 million in funding as she prepares to run against former state Sen. Jim Carlin (R), who challenged Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) in the 2022 GOP primary, for the party’s nomination in the 2026 race. Democratic leaders are hoping to win the seat vacated by Ernst, claiming the Senate’s GOP majority is in trouble with her departure.”
Cornyn claws back into race with Paxton: The Hill: “Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has closed the gap in recent polling as he squares off against state Attorney General Ken Paxton in a bitterly fought primary, though observers acknowledge he still faces a tough reelection bid. A Texas Southern University poll released in August showed Paxton holding a 5 point lead over Cornyn among likely primary voters, down from 9 points in the same poll released in May. Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll also released last month showed Cornyn leading Paxton by 1 point. … The polls come as Cornyn’s allies have ramped up their spending in recent weeks. … Paxton has also faced scrutiny over his divorce, as well as news that he and his now-estranged wife claimed three houses as his primary residence in mortgage documents. The tightening polls also came after Cornyn leaned into the Texas redistricting fight, garnering attention for calling on the FBI to help bring back Democrats who had fled the state in protest against efforts to redraw the maps. Paxton, meanwhile, faced criticism over being in Europe as the redistricting efforts kicked off.”
Dem upstart roils Texas Senate primary: The Texas Tribune: “Texas Rep. James Talarico launched his bid for U.S. Senate on Tuesday. … He has emerged as one of Texas Democrats’ most effective communicators — a skill he attributes in part to his two years as a middle school teacher — and he more recently helped lead the caucus’ messaging efforts against Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting. Talarico joins a Democratic primary field that so far includes Colin Allred, a former Dallas congressman and NFL linebacker who fell short of unseating U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by 8.5 percentage points, and former astronaut Terry Virts. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke and U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio are also considering running. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.”
Close race to replace McConnell: Semafor: “A new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of a super PAC tied to Rep. Andy Barr shows the Republican building momentum in his bid for Kentucky’s open Senate seat — though he’s still trailing former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. The survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters, shared first with Semafor, found 37% favor Cameron; 29% favor Barr; and 8% favor businessman Nate Morris. Six in 10 voters saw Cameron favorably, while four in 10 saw Barr favorably and one in 10 saw Morris favorably. It was a different story earlier this year, when a different internal poll found 39% favored Cameron; 18% favored Barr; and 3% favored Morris. Representatives for Cameron and Morris separately called the new poll ‘fake’: Morris spokesperson Conor McGuinness said ‘Barr knows full well that Nate is surging,’ and Cameron campaign manager Taylor Zanazzi said ‘Cameron is dominating the field.’”
Republicans tout new numbers in New Hampshire: Punchbowl News: “A poll commissioned by a top Senate Republican outside group shows former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) in a competitive race with Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in a potential New Hampshire Senate matchup. Pappas leads Sununu, 45% to 43%, in an initial head-to-head contest in the Granite State, per a memo circulated by One Nation — the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned group. ‘If Sununu runs, Chris Pappas will be in for the fight of his political career,’ the memo touts. … For the opening months of the 2026 cycle, Senate Republicans seemed content with [Sen. Scott] Brown. But Sununu has emerged as the new favorite of Senate Republicans. … Sununu has a last name that’s priceless in New Hampshire politics. But he’s been out of office since 2009 when he lost to Shaheen, and his profile is seen as less moderate than that of his younger brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu.”
SHORT ORDER
Trump pads Vance’s political fund as 2028 looms — NBC News
Wes Moore launches reelection campaign, tamps down presidential speculation — CNN
Legal challenges leave redistricting consequences in doubt — The Hill
California Republicans fear extinction as redistricting fallout hits — Politico
The numbers behind the crime debate — The Liberal Patriot
Dem N.J. mayor switches to GOP, backs Jack Ciattarelli — New Jersey Globe
Milwaukee County executive joins crowded Wis. gubernatorial field — AP
TABLE TALK: SO YOU’RE SAYING THERE’S A CHANCE
“No, no, no. A thousand times no.” — New York mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa in response to being asked if he would exit the race to clear the field
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FOR DESSERT: HE BET THE OVER
NBC News: “A cruise ship passenger faces a federal charge after he jumped overboard with thousands in cash on him over the weekend in Puerto Rico after he incurred about $16,000 in gambling losses on the high seas, federal prosecutors said. Jey Xander Omar Gonzalez-Diaz was arrested Sunday after he jumped off Royal Caribbean’s Rhapsody of the Seas when it docked in San Juan. … Gonzalez-Diaz was fished out of the water by passersby on jet skis and taken to shore, where Customs and Border Protection officers found $14,600 cash on him, the complaint said. … The criminal complaint alleges Gonzalez-Diaz owed Royal Caribbean $16,710.24 in debts that were ‘almost exclusively associated with Casino and Gaming expenses.’”
