It took Democrats until the spring and summer of 2024 to get serious about unwinding the excesses of the opening phase of Joe Biden’s presidency.
And they unwound as hard and fast as a deep-sea fisherman’s reel after a tarpon hit the line. The administration changed course on fossil fuels, student loans and, most notably, immigration. Democrats even went so far as to give their own nominee, the sitting president, the heave-ho.
It was, of course, too little, too late.
Think back to the heady days of 2021 and early 2022 when pandemic-fueled “this time is different” thinking led many Democrats to believe that Donald Trump’s effort to steal a second term and the Jan. 6 riot had so disqualified Republicans in the eyes of voters that the blue team had stumbled into a large, lasting majority.
Certainly, there were warnings. Notably Democratic strategist David Shor, who cautioned his party against its evident capture by very young, very online activists who made up the backbone of the party’s organization: “I think that this is pushing them to use overly ideological language, to not show enough messaging or policy restraint and, from a symbolic perspective, to use words that regular voters literally don’t understand — and I think that that’s a real problem.”
You can quibble with Shor’s prescriptions for the party as relying too much on messaging and not enough on policy changes. You can say he harmed Democratic chances by giving this critique such a public airing. But you cannot say that he was wrong in his diagnosis.
Captured by click-conscious radicals in their own ranks, Democrats neglected the swing voters who had given them power in the previous presidential election. Sound like anyone else you know?
What should have happened is that Democrats would have gotten clobbered in 2022 and started the journey back to moderation. But then, as so often has been the explanation for so long, Trump crashed into the scene.
Eager and ambitious Democratic prosecutors in New York and Atlanta made Trump a martyr in the minds of many Republicans who in 2021 were ready to be done with his roller-coaster ride. This rally-round-the-flag effect gave Trump even greater clout heading into the 2022 GOP primaries, in which he saddled his party with a bunch of weak candidates in key races. That, combined with Democrats’ natural advantage with high-propensity voters, broke up the red wave before it could reach the shore.
Rather than concluding that they had narrowly escaped the full consequences of their bad decisions, Democrats generally, and Biden particularly, concluded that they could plow ahead. Biden declared for a second term in contravention of most available evidence about his condition personally and politically and made no significant post-midterm pivots.
By the end of 2023, as inflation continued to batter American families and mass migration produced miseries, Democrats were waking up to the possibility that even Trump might not save them. But the major policy fight that followed among Democrats wasn’t about whom to nominate or whether to temper stances on issues that were aggravating independents, but rather a knock-down-drag-out over support for Israel, an abstract and low-priority issue for the less partisan voters who decide every national election.
The story of almost every newly elected presidential administration includes similar elements of overreach, rebuke and correction. But what about when the new president is a lame duck, as we have now?
For Republicans these days, overreach isn’t a side effect, it’s the prescription.
On every front of American life, the Trump administration is making its presence felt. Almost every day, the big story is about the president doing something big, controversial and often of dubious constitutional authority. Undertaking the overhaul of the American economy with tariffs issued, revoked or altered by executive order, for example.
Killing suspected drug runners on the high seas, bombing Iran’s nuclear program; shuttering whole government agencies; mixing personal and official business; taking over the police in Washington, D.C.; sending masked ICE agents on raids across the country; muscling the Federal Reserve; re-renaming military bases; cutting off research money for colleges; reprogramming the Kennedy Center; making the Smithsonian politically “correct”; upending the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; taking ownership shares in private companies; squeezing broadcasters for unfavorable content and on and on… All of those things are very popular with some voters. Most of those things are popular with Republicans as a whole. But every one of those things upsets some significant number of people. Mostly Democrats, but plenty of independents and even lots of Republicans.
This is a level of overreach that the Biden administration and the Democrats of 2021 couldn’t have imagined, even in their wildest Green New Deal fever dreams, but there is no sign of any letting up anytime soon.
The temptation for Republicans is in the eternal self-deception that afflicts almost every party with a new majority. America doesn’t do much in the way of permanent majorities these days, but it is alluring always to believe that, again, this time is different and that the fragile coalition pieced together for the previous contest is now durable. It wasn’t an election, they think, it was the start of a movement.
But that’s what happens when you’re only talking to yourselves, which is what Shor was trying to tell Democrats to stop doing four years ago, a warning his party did not heed. It doesn’t appear that there is even that kind of modest pushback coming from inside the current Republican Party. Instead, Republicans seem to believe that some combination of gerrymandering and a frenzied base will spare them from the normal boom-and-bust cycle that afflicts parties that ignore the middle.
The danger signs are very much present, especially with the swing Hispanic voters who were so crucial in 2024, but there’s little indication that anyone in the White House or in Congress is paying much attention. One suspects that when their unwinding begins, it will be a doozy.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump Job Performance
Average Approval: 43%
Average Disapproval: 53%
Net Score: –10
Change from last week: ↑ 2.6 points
Change from one month ago: ↑ 3.2 points
[Average includes: Fox News 46% approve – 54% Disapprove; Reuters/Ipsos 42% approve – 56% disapprove; Emerson College 45% approve – 47% disapprove; Quinnipiac University 37% approve – 53% disapprove; AP-NORC 45% approve – 53% disapprove]
Schools flunk with Americans after postpandemic bounce back
Overall, how satisfied are you with the quality of education students receive in kindergarten through grade 12 in the U.S. today?
2023 / 2024 / 2025
Completely/somewhat satisfied: 63% / 55% / 62%
Completely/Somewhat dissatisfied: 36% / 43% / 35%
[Gallup survey of U.S. adults, Aug. 1-Aug. 20]
ON THE SIDE: MAYBE STONEHENGE WAS A BBQ PIT
[London] Times: “At the end of the Bronze Age, the people of southern Britain gathered for vast ceremonial meals, where pigs, cattle and sheep were roasted, eaten and tossed aside in such numbers the leftovers still rise from the landscape as grassy mounds. An analysis of these animal bones has revealed just how far people and their livestock travelled during this ‘age of feasting’ 2,900 years ago, to take part in what may have been the biggest communal meals in British history until the Middle Ages. Archaeologists from Cardiff University studied six giant middens — prehistoric rubbish heaps — in Wiltshire and the Thames Valley. These mounds of broken pottery and discarded bones, some as large as five [soccer fields], were the refuse of an extraordinary feasting culture. By analysing the chemical signatures preserved in the bones, the researchers have shown that some animals were raised hundreds of miles away before being slaughtered for the festivities.”
PRIME CUTS
Dems push big bucks into New Jersey race: The Hill: “The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is making a second $1.5 million investment in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, bringing its total to $3 million devoted to electing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) in November. The total is the most that the DNC has ever spent in New Jersey during an off-year election cycle, the organization said in a release Tuesday. The investment will contribute to hiring more regional directors, organizers and staff, funding voter contact efforts, testing new tactics and tools to ensure messaging is resonating with voters and expanding the party’s reach with key groups it lost ground with in November, including Black, Latino and Asian American voters. … The announcement from the DNC comes after a super PAC tied to the Republican Governors Association revealed plans for an initial $1 million ad buy for [nominee Jack Ciattarelli].”
Sherrill holds 9-point edge in new poll: The Hill: “Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) is ahead of Republican New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points, according to a new poll. The Quinnipiac University poll found Sherrill garnering 49 percent support to Ciattarelli’s 41 percent among likely voters. … Sherrill and Ciattarelli both recently put out their first general election television ads for the upcoming governor’s race. Ciattarelli locked down the Republican nomination this year for a second time after a close loss to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in 2021. He is seeking an upset over Sherrill, the Democratic nominee. New Jersey has a history of leaning Democratic, but Republicans in recent years have found success in state-level races and encouragement in strides made during the 2021 governor’s race and 2024 presidential race. Murphy, meanwhile, had a job approval rating of 48 percent from likely voters, while 44 percent disapproved in the poll.”
Dems dominate on campaign cash for closing leg of Virginia race: Washington Post: “Democrat Abigail Spanberger continues to hold a significant fundraising advantage over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the Virginia governor’s race, entering the final stretch with more than double the amount of cash on hand, recent campaign finance filings show. Spanberger raised $14 million during July and August and has $12.2 million left in the bank, compared with $5.2 million raised by Earle-Sears, who has $4.9 million in cash, according to an analysis of campaign finance reports by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.”
Cost of living top concern for Virginia voters: The Hill: “The rising cost of living is the most pressing issue for nearly a third of Virginia voters as they cast their ballots in the upcoming state elections, which will decide a new governor, a new poll found. The Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) poll at the end of August found that 28 percent of registered voters said cost of living is their top issue, followed by reproductive rights (13 percent) and immigration and education (12 percent each).”
Former Republican members of Congress back Spanberger: CBS News: “Democrat Abigail Spanberger is heading into the final stretch of her campaign to try and become the next governor of Virginia with vocal support from two former Republican members of Congress. In a new development first reported by CBS News, Spanberger’s campaign is set to tout endorsements from former Reps. Barbara Comstock and Denver Riggleman. The show of support from the two, who both backed Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential race, also includes an advertisement.”
Stefanik looks to make rival Hochul pay for Mamdani boost: The Hill: “Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) spoke out against New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) endorsement of New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani … calling the governor the ‘worst’ in the U.S. as the congresswoman prepares to jump into the race for the state’s top executive role. … Hochul formally endorsed Mamdani in a New York Times op-ed to be the city’s next mayor on Sunday, roughly two months before the city’s mayoral elections. … Stefanik’s criticism of Hochul comes as political observers expect her to soon formally challenge the governor ahead of next year’s election. Multiple sources confirmed to The Hill in June that Stefanik would enter the race, with one source saying: ‘It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when.’”
Mamdani margin matters: Silver Bulletin: “To the extent Democrats draw lessons from the New York race, Mamdani’s margin should he win, and whether he ultimately commands an outright majority of the electorate, probably ought to matter. He’s clearly a very talented candidate, but he’s also benefitted from running against a trio of deeply flawed opponents. Still, a lot of electoral politics is simply making the most of one’s opportunities. And as New York City returns to its hustle-and-bustle after its lazy late summers, the opportunity for Cuomo and the other candidates is slipping away.”
SHORT ORDER
North Carolina contest may be first billion-dollar Senate contest — Politico
Alabama A.G. Steve Marshall the early Senate front-runner in Senate race — Alabama Daily News
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) moves closer to Texas Senate bid, complicating Cornyn-Paxton showdown — Punchbowl News
Raffensperger jumps in hot Georgia governor race — WSB-TV
Lombardo looks to hold Nevada governor’s mansion for GOP — KLAS
After some hedging, Walz opts in for third term as Minnesota governor — The Hill
GOP front-runner Donalds outpacing Democrat Jolly for Florida governor — Florida Politics
Pelosi a driving force behind California’s redistricting counterstrike — New York Times
Battle to gerrymander in Missouri only just begun — Cook Political Report
TABLE TALK: PRIDE PARADE
“But we were already asking a lot of America: to accept a woman, a Black woman, a Black woman married to a Jewish man. Part of me wanted to say, ‘Screw it, let’s just do it.’ But knowing what was at stake, it was too big of a risk.” — Former Vice President Kamala Harris in a forthcoming book lamenting that then-Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was her first choice for a 2024 running mate but she didn’t pick him because he is gay
It’s good to be the king
“Some of them had bad names like ‘XYZ-Q3,’ and he knew every one of ’em — or at least I think he did, because nobody was complaining.” — President Trump toasting King Charles III at a state dinner in Windsor Castle in Trump’s honor
MAILBAG
“I just finished reading your Whole Hog [of Sept. 12] and it made me step back, take a breath and realize it will be ok. I am a 62-year-old woman who has always said ‘It doesn’t really matter who the president is, it is Congress who has all the power.’ These past few months have proved me wrong and actually had me in tears a few times and considering moving to another country. Your email this morning made me stop and think we are bigger than all of this and I think we will be ok. I have never considered myself political and rarely paid attention to the news so these past few months have been a bit stressful. Your newsletter convinced me to take a day or month off from thinking this may be the last time I ever vote and to go walk my dog and enjoy my Friday instead.” — Meg Bradley, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Ms. Bradley,
I wish I could say with certainty that “it will be OK,” but I don’t know that for sure. I commend to you the sage advice of my boss at the American Enterprise Institute, Yuval Levin, who talked with our TV audience about the difference between optimism and hope. Optimism and pessimism are dangerous because they assume the inevitability of outcomes.
Brother Yuval counsels instead toward hope. Hope is better because we are part of it, not bystanders. “Hopeful doesn’t mean everything is going to be perfect. Hopeful means we can overcome the biggest problems we have,” he said. “Hope says to you: ‘If you work at it, if you make yourself worth it and worthy of it, then you can achieve a better life.’ And I think that is the promise of America.”
How our nation gets out of its current strait, I don’t know. But I do know that it will take people of goodwill who are committed to constitutional principles from the left, right and center to solve the problem. I hope we find each other and work together on the issues larger than the day-to-day fights and secure again what Abraham Lincoln rightly called the “last, best hope of earth.”
Your point about Congress is spot on, though. Of all the things that have contributed to this rotten moment in American political history, I don’t imagine any are more consequential than the decades-long self-abnegation of Congress.
Our system depends on Congress being the entity that resolves the major disputes that divide us, which demands that members of both parties work in a constructive way to forge compromises that can produce lasting, predictable frameworks for Americans to live their lives. For many reasons, particularly the perverse incentives of low-turnout primary elections, Congress has abandoned its position as first among equals of the three branches. What we have now is more like a parliamentary system in which Congress only acts when it is controlled by the same party that controls the White House. When action and executive accountability are so strictly coded for partisanship, the power of Congress vanishes.
But by all means we should all enjoy our Fridays, especially if we have dogs to walk! It is so easy to become discouraged and throw our hands up at a politics that elevates the voices of the radical few over the moderate many. It is important then that we all learn to tune out the catastrophizing about the future and live in the present moment, particularly its joys and encouragements. The future does not depend on any one of us alone, nor is worry ever productive. I can only do the work that is in front of me, love the people God has given me to love, and, of course, dogs. If optimism is dangerous, pessimism is even worse.
All best,
C
“Thank you for the dispassion and clarity. Are you on another podcast I can now listen to? Haven’t heard you since you stopped Ink-Stained Wretches!!”
— Marc R. Jones, Franklin, Tenn.
Mr. Jones,
There are a couple of podcast projects in the works that I hope you will find delightful. But in the meantime, may I commend to you the weekly video version of Whole Hog Politics? Here’s a link to last week’s episode, but the general idea is that I talk about the note and whatever else intrigues us with Bill Sammon, my boss, mentor and old friend. Check us out today.
All best,
c
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FOR DESSERT: FRÈRE JACQUES, DORMEZ-VOUS?
Agence France-Presse: “Passengers on a flight from Paris to Corsica were left hanging mid-air after an air traffic controller on the ground took a mid-shift snooze, France’s civil aviation authority said Wednesday. After the worker dozed off on Monday, the Air Corsica flight from Paris Orly airport to Ajaccio was forced to fly around in circles above the Mediterranean Sea for ‘18 minutes,’ the authority told AFP, confirming a report in Corse Matin. ‘The intervention of the airport fire department at the control tower revealed that the air traffic controller on duty had fallen asleep at his post,’ the aviation authority added. After the controller was woken up, ‘the flight landed safely,’ the authority said, adding that it had opened an investigation into the ‘unusual situation.’ Though the controller had tested negative for alcohol, ‘a possible sanction is under consideration.’”
