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Why Peak China May Finally Have Arrived

by The editor•13 August 2025•Posted inReal Clear Politics

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The Atlantic

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The Guardian

‘Get off our streets’: DC residents protest federal law enforcement installed by Trump – live updates
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Politico

Adams’ fiscal legacy, his successor’s likely inheritance
BORED MEETING: Mayor Eric Adams is leaving a financial predicament for his successor — who, as of now, is looking more and more like Zohran Mamdani. A board of the state’s top fiscal authorities this morning slammed Adams’ $115.9 billion “Best Budget Ever” for rendering New York City unprepared for hard financial realities and looming federal clawbacks. The New York State Financial Control Board, chaired by Gov. Kathy Hochul and tasked with overseeing the city’s fiscal planning, raised its concerns at a perilous moment for the city’s financial future. The Trump administration is looking to cut federal funding for expensive social services as the city is already facing its slowest jobs growth outside a recession in decades, per a New York Times report. But New York’s financial leaders, including State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli and City Comptroller Brad Lander, warned the city’s financial woes predate Trump’s second term. “Instead of planning for uncertainty, the Adams Administration has continued the opaque fiscal practice of underbudgeting of key services like shelter, special education, rental assistance, and overtime,” Lander wrote in his report. “Our estimates suggest that the June Financial Plan underestimates expenditures by $5.15 billion annually. That is not fiscal discipline — it is fiscal denial.” The Citizens Budget Commission, a watchdog group that generally advocates for more conservative budgeting, also worried that Adams has left New York City ill prepared to backfill massive federal funding cuts. “Rather than wisely save resources, control spending, and focus on efficiency, the city drove up spending by 7 percent, continued to underbudget programs, and added unaffordable spending during the budget process,” said Ana Champeny, CBC vice president for research. Still, the FCB broadly approved of Adams’ budgeting and determined the city was in compliance with its standards — once again avoiding the stricter state oversight that was first implemented during the city’s fiscal crisis 50 years ago. Adams acknowledged that sweeping funding cuts could produce a financial shortfall the city would struggle to bridge. Still, he appeared confident he’d be leading the legal fight against the White House, a battle that would likely outlast his first term. “If dollars related to individual grants are clawed back, we'll make a determination about how to proceed,” said Adams. “Along with other impacted cities and states, we will keep fighting in the courts for every dollar that has been awarded to the city.” For Lander, who’s winding down his final months as the city’s money manager after losing in the mayoral primary, the opportunity to once again criticize Adams’ fiscal management comes as he’s viewed as a top contender to join the Mamdani administration, should the Democratic nominee maintain his lead in the polls. The democratic socialist is not exactly running on fiscal restraint, and his plans for new spending are complicated by the $4.2 billion gap that’s been left for the next fiscal year, according to the city comptroller’s office. Mamdani has said he would defend against likely federal cuts by raising revenue, primarily by increasing taxes on corporations and the ultra-wealthy. But Mamdani’s plans for building housing and rehabbing schools likely undercount their costs, and his tax plan is likely to face serious opposition in Albany, as POLITICO has reported. Mamdani’s campaign declined to comment. In his response to the bevy of concerns raised by the board, Adams kept his remarks brief, thanking the members for their “informative” comments. — Amira McKee & Jeff ColtinLOCKED OUT: Rep. Dan Goldman said today the Trump administration is once again violating the law by blocking him from visiting a federal jail in Brooklyn where ICE is detaining immigrants. “I have a very specific statutory right under the law,” he said. “It’s a blatant violation of the law. We are in court right now suing the Department of Homeland Security for that purpose.” Goldman was referring to his right to conduct oversight visits wherever the Department of Homeland Security is housing immigrants. The Democrat waited outside the front gate of the Metropolitan Detention Center for 45 minutes this morning. He requested a visit last Friday, he said, but a spokesperson for the Bureau of Prisons told him Tuesday night they wouldn’t be able to accommodate him, without providing a specific reason. He came anyway to make a point and speak to the press. Goldman as well as Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Nydia Velázquez were denied entry for an unannounced visit last week. DHS didn’t respond to a request for comment. The visit today came a day after a federal judge ordered ICE to improve conditions for detained immigrants at 26 Federal Plaza in Manhattan — a site where Goldman and fellow members of Congress have also been blocked from visiting. With a nod to that, Goldman said congressional oversight is now more important than ever. “What are they hiding?” said Goldman. “Now we know.” — Jeff ColtinHOCHUL’S GOT HIS BACK: Hochul hasn’t endorsed Mamdani even though he’s her party’s mayoral nominee, but she still found a way to show a little love. As President Donald Trump escalates his attacks on the state lawmaker, Hochul insists she will be in Mamdani’s corner if he leads City Hall. “He’s worked very hard with affordability front and center, something I believe in, and focusing on solutions,” the governor told NY1’s Bern Hogan. “If he becomes the next mayor, I will stand up and defend him against Donald Trump. You’re not going to come in and walk over our elected officials. So I’ll make it work. Trust us, NYPD, they know what they’re doing." Trump today once again lit into Mamdani, calling the 33-year-old democratic socialist “a communist.” On Monday, the president announced he would deploy the National Guard in Washington to address crime — and hinted that other big cities like New York could get the same treatment. “I wish him well,” said Trump. “I may have to deal with him. I mean, it’s not even conceivable that could happen. Maybe he won’t win, but he won the primaries quite a bit. Shockingly, he won the primaries.” Hochul has maintained an unusually steady working relationship with the Republican president. They have met twice in the Oval Office to discuss energy policy and the controversial congestion pricing toll program in Manhattan. — Nick ReismanDELGADO CALLS OUT GOV: Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado took aim at Hochul today as he joined advocates at Foley Square to call for a special session in Albany to push back on the Trump administration. “Don't tell me that counties are acting as renegade counties, governor, when you have the ability to stop it, governor,” said Delgado. “Don't tell me that we can't close the loophole of making sure that ICE does not enter into agreements with the private prison industrial complex.” In March, Hochul blasted “renegade” counties for signing agreements with ICE to detain undocumented immigrants. Delgado appeared alongside state lawmakers, including state Sens. Julia Salazar and Jabari Brisport, at a rally organized by Citizen Action of New York, VOCAL NY and Make the Road New York. They called on Hochul to convene a special session to pass legislation to limit local law enforcement’s ability to collaborate with ICE and prohibit New York institutions from contracting with immigration detention centers. The lieutenant governor, who’s running against Hochul in the Democratic primary, also took aim at the Democratic Party for not representing the working class. “I'm so tired of my fellow Democrats talking about, ‘we're worried about the rich leaving our state,’" he said. — Mona Zhang— BROOKLYN DODGERS: New York isn’t collecting millions of dollars in penalties from a real estate firm that hasn’t built promised housing at Atlantic Yards because the company threatened to sue them if they tried. (Gothamist) — PAY UP: Attorney General Letitia James sued the operator of Zelle, accusing the bank-owned payment platform of facilitating widespread fraud and failing to protect consumers. (POLITICO Pro) — CAUGHT ON CAMERA: Newly released footage shows New York correctional officers beating a man in custody as the system has seen two high-profile deaths in the last year. (NBC News) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
Kings County kumbaya for Mamdani
With help from Amira McKeeTHE UNI-TEA: Brooklyn Democrats can be a fractious, feuding bunch. Today, for a short while at least, they buried the hatchet. Bitter rivals stood side by side in boisterous support of Zohran Mamdani at the Flatbush Gardens housing complex, the second stop of the Democratic mayoral nominee’s “Five Boroughs Against Trump” tour. The group included the leader of the Kings County Democratic Party and members of the New Kings Democrats faction, which sprung up as the reformist response to county bosses. It featured moderate Democrats as well as progressives and democratic socialists. “First of all, media, I need you to understand what’s going on right now because I don’t think this group of people agree about nothing,” Public Advocate Jumaane Williams observed to chuckles before he launched into his remarks. Williams said New York Democrats more broadly should follow their example in supporting the party’s nominee for mayor. Key party and Brooklyn leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Yvette Clarke, were not in attendance and have yet to endorse Mamdani. Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary seven weeks ago, but many in his party say they still don’t know the young Queens state assemblymember well enough to get behind him. Some say his proposals to freeze rent and make buses free are too unrealistic. Others cite his criticisms of Israel and his reluctance to condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada” as reasons for concern. Mamdani has struggled to shore up support among politically moderate Black and Jewish voters. For House Democrats focused on winning the majority next year, there’s additionally the concern that having a democratic socialist as the face of the party could hurt moderate Democrats in suburban battlegrounds. But their colleagues in state and city government said today in central Brooklyn that the party needs Mamdani to face President Donald Trump. State Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, chair of the county party, endorsed Eric Adams in 2021, Cuomo in this year’s primary and Mamdani immediately after he trounced the former governor in June by nearly 13 points. “People just don’t understand that we all want the same thing,” Bichotte Hermelyn told Playbook, referring to Brooklyn Democrats. “The little political fights, it’s just surface. But we all want affordability. We’re all fighting for a working class, we want equity, we want fairness.” The vibe had enough kumbaya to it that Bichotte Hermelyn and City Council Member Justin Brannan stood next to each other. Yes, the same two Democrats who waged one of the nastiest intraparty clashes in recent memory during Brannan’s 2023 campaign. (She revived bullying accusations against him, he won without party resources and concluded on election night that she’s “gotta go.”) Progressive New Kings members had praise for both Mamdani and Bichotte Hermelyn in explaining how a diverse cross-section of Democrats could get on the same page. “It’s indicative of his campaign and who he is,” Council Member Crystal Hudson said of Mamdani. “If all of us can come together behind him, he’s doing something.” Council Member Chi Ossé told Playbook, “I really do applaud Rodneyse on immediately getting into lockstep and showing that Democratic unity is important here. ... I think the entire party needs to continue doing what we’re doing in there.” — Emily NgoGOP SPLIT IN ASSEMBLY SPECIAL: Republicans are beginning to coalesce around a candidate for the looming special election to replace Democratic Assemblymember Billy Jones — but not the party leader with the most say in choosing a nominee. Malone Mayor Andrea Dumas locked down support from Rep. Elise Stefanik last week. She was endorsed today by the Conservative Party and Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay. But Stefanik put out a lengthy statement this afternoon calling on Clinton County GOP Chair Jerika Manning to resign for “threatening to tank” the special. “I am not going to let her torpedo Republican candidates in the North Country,” Stefanik wrote. Manning controls 53 percent of the vote as party leaders choose a nominee for the race that’ll likely be held on Election Day. Two individuals familiar with the situation said Stefanik’s statement came about after the county chair declined to join other Republican leaders in endorsing Dumas and continued searching for a new candidate. Manning did not return a request for comment. Plattsburgh Supervisor Michael Cashman has been widely seen as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Bridie Farrell, a Child Victims Act advocate and former speed-skater who briefly ran against Stefanik in 2022, formally joined the Democratic field today as well. — Bill Mahoney NOT SWEATING: Gov. Kathy Hochul shrugged at a Siena University poll released this morning that found Stefanik, a potential gubernatorial rival, running competitively in the suburbs and among independent voters. “I’ll let you all figure it out,” she told reporters. “I’m working hard every single day putting money back in peoples’ pockets, making streets safer and fighting the damn Trump administration.” The survey found Hochul with a 14-point lead over Stefanik, 45 percent to 31 percent. The gap between the Democratic governor and the House Republican, while comfortable, is smaller than the 23-point difference Hochul held in June. “I’ve been through countless polls and, guess what, team, there’s going to be a lot more between now and November,” she added. — Nick Reisman ADULT LEARNERS EYE FREE TUITION: More than 16,500 New Yorkers applied to a free community college program for older students, Hochul announced this morning. The City University of New York received about 7,000 of the applications from students seeking associate degrees in high-demand fields, CUNY Chancellor Félix Matos Rodríguez said. The remainder went to the State University of New York. The initiative — aimed at adult learners between the ages of 25 and 55 — applies to the 37 community colleges run by SUNY and CUNY. The program, set to begin this fall, is part of Hochul’s affordability push, as she faces a tough reelection bid next year. “I’m going to keep doing my part, focusing on families — my fight is for your family,” Hochul said during a press conference at LaGuardia Community College in Queens. “Focusing on affordability — this is a major part of it, but also putting more money back in people’s pockets.” Hochul insisted the state “has no limit” on the number of applicants because enrollment is still lower than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic. Some 4 million working-age adults in New York do not have a college degree or credential, according to the governor’s office. State lawmakers and higher education advocates told POLITICO earlier this year that community colleges don’t have enough money to implement the plan. The governor allocated $47 million in the state budget for the upcoming school year. When asked by Playbook about those concerns, Hochul pointed to record investments in SUNY and CUNY. — Madina TouréTAKEOVER TAKES: Trump’s unprecedented effort to take over law enforcement in Washington drew a reaction from Mayor Eric Adams today. Asked about Trump’s actions, Adams touted recent decreases in major crime categories to make the case that New York City does not need the type of federal intervention playing out in the nation’s capital. “I’m not part of the group that says we don’t want to work with the federal government, but we don’t need anyone to come in and take over our law enforcement apparatus,” Adams, who is running for reelection as an independent, said during an unrelated news conference. “We’ve got this under control." Rival independent candidate Andrew Cuomo claimed the turn of events in Washington is “exactly what will happen” if Mamdani wins the general election this fall, though Trump would be more limited in the control he could exert over the NYPD. “Trump will flatten him like a pancake,” Cuomo posted Monday on X. “In 2020, Trump sent the National Guard into other states. Not New York. There’s only one person in this race who can stand up to Trump: the one who already has, successfully and effectively.” Mamdani warned Trump against trying a similar militarization in New York City, as the president has repeatedly floated, while chiding Cuomo for comments he made during a June CBS interview where he warned federal immigration officers are “going to do things that are illegal and unconstitutional" but cautioned New Yorkers not to overreact. “Donald Trump is not above the law and if he comes for New York City, he will have to go through me,” Mamdani said in a statement today. “As Mayor, I will not downplay or enable his authoritarianism — and I certainly will not tell New Yorkers not to ‘overreact’ as Andrew Cuomo did when Trump’s militia tried to bulldoze Los Angeles.” — Maya Kaufman and Joe Anuta ENDORSEMENT WATCH: Former Gov. David Paterson is set to endorse Adams’ reelection bid during a Wednesday event at City Hall, according to a person with direct knowledge of the gathering. The nod comes a month after Paterson held a press conference that called for a united front to defeat Mamdani in the general election. So far, the former elected’s wishes are not playing out. Neither Cuomo, Adams nor GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa have expressed any intention of dropping out of the race. Paterson backed Cuomo in the primary, but his support has waned after Cuomo’s decisive loss to Mamdani in the June 24 primary. — Joe AnutaGUILTY PLEA: A former Adams aide pleaded guilty today to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, admitting to organizing a fundraiser for the mayor at which he knew money would be raised by illegal straw donations. Bahi’s plea in Manhattan federal court comes four months after Judge Dale Ho dismissed the related charges against Adams after Trump’s Department of Justice sought to drop the case. Bahi said that an unnamed “volunteer of the campaign” had told him Adams’ political operation would raise money by straw donations at a December 2020 fundraiser with Uzbek-American business leader Tolib Mansurov and would then seek to match the contributions with public funds. It wasn’t clear which volunteer Bahi was referring to, though Adams’ indictment suggests it was Ahsan Chugtai, another man who was later hired by Adams’ City Hall as a Muslim community liaison. Adams adviser Frank Carone did not respond when asked about it, saying the case has “no connection at all or relevance” to the Adams campaign. Adams’ lawyers have maintained that he was not aware of any of the numerous confirmed illegal contributions to his 2021 campaign. Bahi did not respond when reporters asked how he felt about pleading guilty when Adams got off. Turkish-American developer Erden Arkan also pleaded guilty to making straw donations in January, and his sentencing is scheduled for this Friday. Bahi was hired as a Muslim liaison in the Mayor’s Community Affairs Unit after Adams won. He resigned last October, the day before he was arrested and charged with witness tampering and destruction of evidence. He’s been in plea discussions with the government since at least February. Bahi agreed to pay $32,000 restitution, Ho said, and could face up to six months in prison and a $20,000 fine at sentencing, which is scheduled for Nov.ember 18. — Jeff Coltin— SPY-FI: The Adams administration is using its flagship broadband program to give police real-time access to NYCHA camera feeds — without telling anyone. (New York Focus) — AI, ESQ.: A Queens judge is fining a landlord’s attorney for using fake, AI-generated court cases to support his argument. (Hell Gate) — TEAM ZOHRAN: Mamdani is growing his inner circle, a group of trusted advisers that lean younger and farther left than that of his rivals. (New York Times) Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.
‘He's been explicit’: Black leaders say Trump is going after blue cities for a reason
Black city mayors fear what’s next from Trump as he rails against crime in urban centers that didn't support him.
Paxton urges Texas judge to jail Beto O’Rourke over fundraising related to redistricting fight
O’Rourke plans to seek sanctions against Paxton for ‘outright lie.’
Sherrod Brown to run for Senate
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NPR

Some Houston residents worry about changes under proposed redistricting plan
In one Houston neighborhood, residents worry their problems — and their votes — will go unheard if Republican state lawmakers go ahead with a redistricting plan to give them an edge in elections.
Trump is tightening the screws on corporate America — and CEOs are staying mum
Critics warn that Trump's demands for business leaders to step down, and for the government to take a cut of sales, threaten American-style capitalism.
The fight is on. How redistricting could unfold in 8 entangled states
State leaders in both parties say they're ready to redraw political lines ahead of 2026, but state laws and constitutions make mid-decade redistricting virtually impossible in many places.
Expectations for Trump-Putin summit. And, homeless people in D.C. at risk
The White House lowered its expectations surrounding the Trump-Putin summit on Friday. And, advocates worry about penalties for homeless people in D.C. during the crackdown on crime.
Letitia James' lawyer discusses DOJ investigation into New York attorney general
The Justice Department launched a grand jury investigation into New York Attorney General Letitia James. NPR speaks to James' lawyer, Abbe Lowell, who calls it a "dangerous escalation."

Five Thirty Eight

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Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly-ish polling roundup. It’s officially impeachment season again. On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he’s directing three House committees to start investigating whether President Biden benefited from his son Hunter’s business dealings overseas. McCarthy accused the Biden family of “a culture of corruption,” saying that the Biden administration
The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump
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The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans
On Wednesday, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney announced he would not run for reelection in 2024. On the surface, the electoral impact of Romney’s decision is minimal — his seat should stay safely in Republican hands. But it’s still notable because it represents the departure of one of the few remaining Republican senators who had a
Why ‘Bidenomics’ Isn’t Working For Biden
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Why Biden Is Losing Support Among Voters Of Color
Among the most politically tuned-in, last week saw the kind of hand-wringing and accusations of bias surrounding the polls that you’d usually expect from the final two months of a campaign, not the final year and two months of a campaign. The focus was largely on general election polls: Whether a Wall Street Journal poll

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