President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum is apparently the new two-week deadline. And now it is the latest White House demand to Moscow to fall flat.
Last Tuesday, Russia rejected Trump’s ultimatum. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said “any attempts to make demands, especially ultimatums, are unacceptable to us. If we cannot achieve our goals through diplomacy, then the [war in Ukraine] will continue.”
The Kremlin then promptly returned to its terror tactics of bombing Ukrainian cities with ballistic missiles and drones. The White House and mainstream media seem to have moved on.
Ultimata from U.S. presidents do not seem to carry the same weight today as they once did.
Words like “Don’t,” uttered by both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, had no deterrence on Iran. Nor did Trump’s demand for an unconditional surrender. Tehran simply “did,” then declared victory.
President Theodore Roosevelt’s “walk softly and carry a big stick” proverb only carries weight if that big stick is used in a convincing manner. What the Kremlin needs right now is a punch in the face — not another 50 days to attack Ukraine.
Trump’s 50-day grace period essentially gives Russian President Vladimir Putin a license to kill and sets conditions for him to mount another offensive to dethrone Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Reports suggest that 160,000 Russian troops are massing along the frontlines and another 30,000 North Korean soldiers are preparing to deploy to Russia.
It is not the American military that our adversaries have a lack of respect for — they know all too well what its capabilities are. No, it is the American commander-in-chief, who needs to be much harder on our adversaries than our allies.
Trump may authorize more strikes but has yet to finish the task. The man who authored “The Art of the Deal” needs to start removing threats from the battlefield.
Missing is the bold determination and sheer will to win that Generals Ulysses S. Grant and George S. Patton brought to the battlefield. De-escalation has become a principle of war for the White House, Foggy Bottom, and the Pentagon. Concerns over possible outcomes and counteractions have overcome the necessity of doing the hard right.
Diplomacy has its place — just not with evil. Evil needs to be dealt with directly or it will come back stronger. We see the cost in Ukrainian civilian lives.
Unenforced red lines are neither compelling nor convincing. Neither are two-week extensions, ransom payments, lifting of sanctions, or airstrikes on targets not posing threats. Our adversaries see these as examples of weakness, and they exploit them.
Trump has continued Biden’s least intrusive means strategy, and he opts to deliver strategic messages that our adversaries simply ignore. The result: The behavior that led to the strikes resumes — one step forward, two steps back.
For example, Operation Rough Rider commenced on March 15 and concluded on May 5. U.S. Central Command stated the purpose of the campaign was to “target Houthi rebels in Yemen in order to restore freedom of navigation and American deterrence.”
During that period, CENTCOM reportedly struck more than 1,000 Houthi rebel targets in Yemen, expending upwards to 2,000 bombs and missiles. The strikes reportedly “killed hundreds of Houthi fighters and numerous Houthi leaders … destroying multiple command-and-control facilities, air defense systems, advanced weapons manufacturing facilities, and advanced weapons storage locations.”
But the strikes neither defeated nor deterred the Houthi rebels, who were still able to attack U.S. Naval vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and launch ballistic missiles towards Israel throughout the operation.
On May 4, a Houthi hypersonic missile managed penetrated Israel’s missile defense system, impacting near the Terminal 3 parking lot at the Ben Gurion Airport, injuring eight and temporarily shutting down the airport.
They still fire ballistic missiles towards Israel. The latest came on Friday.
And they are still targeting and sinking commercial shipping in the Red Sea, including two last week — the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated cargo ship, Magic Seas and the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated Eternity C.
Operation Midnight Hammer, the bomber strike on the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran, was precision at its absolute best. The B-2 pilots and their support package delivered their bombs precisely where intelligence said the targets were, while an additional 75 precision guided weapons fired by other U.S. aircraft and a guided-missile submarine found their targets at the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities as well.
But Iran was able to strike back, firing ballistic missiles at the mostly abandoned American Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar in retaliation, which were successfully intercepted by U.S. Patriot missile batteries. Then, like their Houthi counterparts, Iran declared victory and agreed to a U.S. brokered ceasefire to protect what was left of their nuclear and ballistic missile programs and their Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from additional Israeli airstrikes.
The Iranian government remains intact and the status of its nuclear program uncertain. It continues to threaten Israel and will likely, with the assistance of Russia and China, rebuild its air defense network and ballistic missile inventories. Surviving is winning. And its leaders now gloat under the protection of the Trump ceasefire.
Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, and even Yemen know weakness when they see it, and they are prepared to exploit it. The U.S. has held Ukraine and Israel back on multiple occasions. It is time to take the handcuffs off and enable both to win. Moscow and Tehran should be the ones pleading with the U.S. to resume ceasefire talks.
According to Foreign Affairs, “Putin shows no intention of abandoning his objectives in Ukraine or ending the war. Even under the threat of new sanctions, he appears ready to go to extremes.”
Russia has publicly rejected Trump’s 50-day proposal, so the grace period must end now. Trump has an opportunity to back up his ultimatum immediately — not in September. Threats of sanctions will not sway Putin, but significant combat power will. Together, they may very well force Russia out of Ukraine and undermine China’s sights on Taiwan.
Trump must stop considering military assistance and economic sanctions and instead just provide it. Winning solves a lot of problems. Enabling Ukraine and Israel to defeat Russia and Iran sends a strong message to the likes of China and its delinquent North Korean neighbor.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
